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Strongest -IOD in 3 years.

Next week look really pleasant.

Currently 49.8/49.0 after a 47.3 low, another 40's morning! We could use a bit of rain, starting to get dry down this way. I can only imagine what it is like north of here where they only had a quarter to half inch of rain previous month!

Low of 55 this morning. Warmup starts today through Saturday, does not look like we make it even through the first week of September with no 90s (I’m still taken aback that we made it through August without a 90 degree reading) but the good news is yet another fall like airmass moves in to start next week. What a freaking pattern!

53F for low in Lanco. Extended looks very dry. .

Something must have changed with the 06Z runs or something. I'm going off-roading / camping in the George Washington National Forest starting on the 13th, and all of a sudden they're saying rain Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday (12-15th!) I know that's still too far out to know, but for four days of rain, it has to be a larger system. I haven't had time to look at any models yet, but last night before I went to sleep, I think it had a chance of rain for Wednesday that week, but that was it. It really CAN'T be that weekend/early week because I'll still be on the trails and won't have the camp site set up yet. Saturday especially was just going to be a trail day - if it's raining Friday and Saturday that would be a bad idea with the mud and creek crossings.

Yep.

Guy uses CPC probability forecasts. Fucking joke. Enjoy 84-88 with dews Saturday in this frigid pattern.

Funny because I thought the modeling looked warmer in the extended overnight…more signs of persistent ridging and fewer cold intrusions.

Enso anomalies reluctant to make any major moves in latest readings. The -.4 is 3.4. 27AUG2025 20.5-0.3 24.3-0.6 26.3-0.4 28.5-0.2

Erin left a heck of a cold wake across the nw Atlantic, while the ENSO regions have cooled dramatically past two weeks. How will this influence Atlantic hurricane activity this month, and what are the two areas I am watching besides the E. Atl system? I go into depth on the large-scale factors for the next few weeks including Sep analogs, while looking at the "elephant in the room" that is being largely ignored IMHO because most tropical enthusiasts are focusing on the East Atlantic system. https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/the-times-they-are-changin

49 degrees this morning. Looks like we are going to get a little fog.

53 for my Marysville low.

EPS look mild in the extended, def not a lot of action across the entire continent next couple weeks tho

Overall pattern doesn’t seem to support an east coast threat. It’s early still but this might be the first season in 6 years that the maritimes don’t get a direct hit or very close shave. Luck may have run out. Fun ride though.

Hell yeah somethings happening!

Looks like Friday into Saturday will be our next chance for 90° heat at the usual warm spots. Could be some scattered convection with the cold front. But should become cooler and drier into next week as Canadian high pressure dominates again.

Models look stormy up here for Thursday. WBAL futurecast had a robust looking storm moving thru after 4pm.

First two consecutive years with a quiet Labor Day weekend following a Cat 5 hurricane.

54 when I left the house, 50 through the rurals with some nice valley fog.

Lucky for you I have an anomaly map I saved from last year around this time. Im going to have to delete some images from earlier on this thread and last thread because im running out of space again. 400mb is a killer

I saw that Lytton reached 40.0C. A large number of sites in BC exceeded 35C. Today, Lytton could surpass 40C.

6z 3k NAM read your mind