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WB 18Z AI EPS: first threat of the season in early December?

We never go wire to wire you silly goose. Where the hell do you think you live? And You always try to put a spin on shit…

Find one great winter in SNE wire to wire with a bad PAC. Just 1

The Christmas of a lifetime. The whole family was over and drunk and we opened the door and holy shit!

Actually it can…but the pacific looks to improve. The reversed Psych act is getting old. You’ll be going gung ho in a couple weeks….I’ll bump this when you do.

Tomorrow will be another cool day with highs topping out in the 40s. Below normal temperatures will prevail through at least Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Highs will be mainly in the middle and upper 40s in New York City with lows in the middle and upper 30s. A milder pattern will likely develop during the latter part of the week. Some rain or rain showers are possible. Once in place, the milder pattern could continue for a week or longer. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,388th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +19.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.297 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.5° (0.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Couple duds in there. '72-73 and 08-09. 2005-06 slightly above Temperatures with slightly below average Snowfall. Very Mild January.. 85-86 was great. below average Temps, above average Snowfall. 64-65 was average with above Snowfall. 96-97 avg Temps and Slightly below Snowfall. 08-09 slightly above Temperatures, below average Snowfall. 80-81 below Average Temps, above Snowfall. 09-10 great. Below average Temps above average Snowfall. John, you probably have more detailed information in these.

I have seen snow before, this month even

They are catching onto the time-lagged -NAO from November Stratosphere warming (late Dec -NAO). Still, that Dec 1-7 map is pretty significantly different from a few weeks ago.. the seasonal models don't fluctuate that much.

This is by a good margin the weakest SPV on any run. If this verifies closely, this would be the weakest late Nov to early Dec SPV by a good margin since way back in 1987! We know that one month later there was a historic SE winter storm, which gave Atlanta 4” of sleet, very heavy snowfall in some other areas, and ZR down all of the way down here.

Per this EW run’s weekly 2m maps directly from the source, it remains a step down process from a mild E US start: Dec 1-7: mild Dec 8-14: cools some to slightly mild to normal Dec 15-21: cools to normal Dec 22-28: cold comes in around Christmas!

I'm surprised powder freak hasn't been rubbing it in our faces.

lol oh ha. Didn’t even catch that

It was fine last winter. We just couldn’t get the big storms.

12km NAM doing its NAM thing on us, look at all that 1+" purple!

Some more shots I took from May 10th, 2024 that I never went through:

Its winter incoming with the NS version of Will with Uncle Leo!!!

This isnt true at all. Down here i would be screwed but you wouldn't

Uncle Leo!!

I think he's making a joke about it looking like it says negative 16 inches, lol

Are the two tornadoes in 1927 the same tornado?

Funny thing is 2016-17 had a very good December. It was the rest of the winter that was mild.

Showing a fantasy storm for Nova Scotia already in the long range a good sign. Gfs 18z at 360 hours lol.

It's too bad it's not a month later or this would be a decent snowstorm, at least here. It's the rising-out-from-negNAO storm.

A bad or negative Pacific cannot be overcome in the northeast. Particularly south of NNE. If it’s hostile . A good to great winter is virtually impossible