All Activity

Some more quick data- The last widespread winter storm in between Christmas and New Years was the Christmas storm in 2010. Before that, only Eastern NC got any appreciable snow in the 2000s during that time frame (Dec 2004) In the 90s there was also only 1 widespread winter storm the entire decade for this time period as well (1997). In the 80s there was a mountain Christmas day snow (1981) for higher elevations for no other storms that decade. In the 70s, there were a couple smaller storms during that time but no major storms. Overall, each decade has only seen 1 usually small storm during that time frame which is typically less than other weeks in December, January, February and early March. For example, the time frame between December 4-10 has seen 2 major winter storms in the past decade alone.

When is it reasonable to expect something more than a basic 1-3” event?

close to something I think. It’s been showing a storm on the 25th.

The NBM does really well with sky cover forecasts I think. Out of MOS/NBM, the NBM was the only guidance bringing in these clouds through the day today followed by some clearing late afternoon/evening then increasing late.

Can you provide data to prove me wrong? Give me low first halves and final totals vs climo. Also, to clarify what you quoted-I want to be sure you understand that I’m saying a low snow first half correlates with a low snow winter.

It’s going around all of the schools. Wife and kid had it and I’ve somehow been able to avoid it even in a small house. Beer and long, brisk dog walks in the cold night air maybe saved me. Today is kind of raw crap with the overcast. I was expecting a sunny day.

Couldn't think of a better gift for drought guy

This would be a pretty major reversal from the current pattern. Definitely would get a more active storm track so theoretically higher snow chances for many.

Today's 12z Canadian run has snow moving in late Christmas evening through the first half of the day on the 26th in eastern PA.

You're wrong....not nearly as big of a deal in El Nino.

S trend would be nice. LP will track right over me at this point.

Low over southern Hudson Bay doesn’t exactly give me good feelings for Snow.

This isn't good for us wx types regardless of how you feel about CC: https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/trump-administration-dissolve-key-climate-research-agency-2025-12-17/

If it's not in the model blend it's probably not making it into the forecast.

To your point, unless one lives near Upton and are experiencing this, isn't this more about the fact that different parts of Upton's area, and even just LI itself, can have wildly different degrees of cloud cover?

now what is going around, I feel like there was something being passed around since school started... Sun is finally out, feels fantastic outside, I think I am ready for spring, Lol

The GFS and the GEM (if one extrapolates past 240) continue to tease some big changes just after d10. The NAO is trying to be a player. It backs up the entire flow upstream and basically resets the 500 chinook pattern. Is it right? IDK. If we can get a storm to hit the West Coast near Los Angeles, that might do the trick in flipping the trough back East.

It's not a common thing. My neighbors know it's going to snow when they see the boards out on my front lawn.

All of our psychological hopes of a white Christmas aside, we’re still about a week out from all of this so I hope folks don’t get too riled up yet. Since we’re riding the boundary it could really go either way if we have a shortwave nearby. I don’t hate the signal especially considering that this is more clipper than coastal.

Meh on the GFS. What a surprise. Just posted this video on the pattern for Christmas week. https://youtu.be/zPngHf9xvyY

I would take Christmas Eve flurries, and the CMC does look more interesting than the GFS at least. The GFS shreds the post Christmas system more than the CMC did

The GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to its ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling In fact, the GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to every ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling, EPS, Can ... GEFs et al. Not sure why this guidance is doing that, but it is what it is...and may be the best route to getting a nostalgia Holiday realized. Namely, it's clearly showing a more western limb -NAO circulation mode behavior in it's cinema, passing through the Holiday and toward NY... That backs the flow through central Canada, and then confluence increases ... blah blah and the boundary ends up suppressing. I didn't detail the GEFs with extraordinary obsession or anything ...but just the cursory evaluation of the 500 mb anomaly distribution, the -NAO expression is retrograded in the operational run, and the ensemble mean does not perform that retrograde. At the end of the day, the NAO remains the bane of prediction skill in the ambit of forecasting technology. jesus. that fuggin thing just cannot seem to ever be well-enough predetermined to know with comfort how the local fields will be modulated. So I guess it's not impossible that the GFS is more right about it... the GGEM from 12z, fwiw, did take a step. Edit, case in point, this 12z GFS now decides to look a little less west oriented -NAO than the previous. We're still playin with dad's model gun with that index out there, though

Dec 23 is next snower in SNE

Let's keep it that way.