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Had no clue that there was even any rain here. I have stopped looking at radar lately.

I'm sure it's entirely coincidence, but we are hitting the 30 year legendary/epic winter cycle year here in 25-26. The winters of 1935-36, 1965-66, and 1995-96 were all given to stretches of very abnormal cold/ above average snowfall. I know in 1935-36 the NE Pacific was on fire, 3c AN. Western areas did the worst in that winter, but Memphis still got over 10 inches of snow Dec-Feb. Nashville got 19.2 inches from 4 big events. Knoxville had 28 inches that winter. Chattanooga had around 21 inches that winter. My area had 39 inches that winter. 12 in December, 9 in January, and 18 in February. The North Pac was also warm in 1965-1966. January of 66 was absolutely one of our harshest winter events. Most of the state was 5 to 20 below zero after a few big snow events. Alabama set their all time state record low then, when a small town NE of Huntsville hit -27. 1995-95 delivered epic winter here but the north pacific was cool that season. I'm sure a coincidence but an odd one. As for Carver's question about general sst vs blocking, I've found that is a loose correlation at times, mainly even when we get favorable sst in a region that would normally promote blocking, we often still don't get it. I'll look into La Nada winters but I believe enso neutral leans towards AN temps as a rule.

It's also much easier to get warm with fire and cloths and shelter than it is to cool off when off the grid like a lot of the world's population.

Nice and cool out

On Sunday it looked like tonight was the only real chance for any rain until the following Wednesday.

I don't even want to describe the ride to work. Nothing in fuquay....got to crossroads and it went crazy...around 7:30am....I did not expect it. It took me 1.5 hours to get to Wade Park. It's a normal 35 minutes. I was driving through 4 to 6 inches of water at times...I got to work and looked at the radar and turned around and went home! Lol...I cannot wait to see the totals!

Open wide and say aaah?

0.01 so far and feels like fall. refreshing

Raining. Didn’t see this coming

Yeah, if it was early June, I would have entertained the thought of an active Atlantic hurricane season. But we're now in early August. If we were going to have an active hurricane season, we would have seen something by now. (Even last year we had Beryl.) Instead, we are at about 2.5 ACE. Yes, I can see a big storm like Hurricane Andrew hitting at some point in the season, but that will be an outlier on the season, just as Andrew was in 1992 (another year that was very active in the Pacific, not so much in the Atlantic). For the most part, the Pacific is going to be active, and the Atlantic will be rather quiet. We're close to halfway on the hurricane season. The tiger isn't going to change stripes at this point in the season. 155 ACE has very low probability, and would be like if the Rockies made the playoffs this year.

Light rain/drizzle. Just a trace. Mostly cloudy all day and kinda gloomy. The lawn is a browned out wasteland in many spots here. I suspect there will be some new D0 expansion when the new drought map drops tomorrow.

Evening notes:

There are no legit New England hurricane hits on the ensembles.

Euro however is a huge torch. If we have mostly southerly flow it'll be the 92/75+ type conditions, if westerly downslope with 20+C 850s many of us will make a run at 100 but have dews more in the 65-70 range.

Rain has finally moved in. Picked up .42" so far.

End of the GFS run is really funny.

I mean, the switch flipped somewhat early this year

Legitimately if this had not started out as one of the lowest winter time volumes recorded this would have been an amazing retention year. The pattern was damn near perfect to lock in ice and cooler temps. The biggest help has been the lack of Canadian warmth up to the Archipelago. I don't even think the NW passage will open this year given we have about 3-4 weeks left of melt, unless this pattern completely flips on us.

I believe it

I'm ready for Blizzard Warnings already lol

In the third world country that is the US the answer is yes. How is a scientific fact politics

Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent. Be ready, it is on the way.

oh wow, radar says Jonesville next to Hillsdale got 3-5". That's insane from such a random shower type of a weather pattern!

oui oui baguette

Are you leaning for or against TC genesis?