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This is 100% the problem. These posters look at every op run and get all upset and think it’s the final outcome. Then they make posts like “ the next 10 days look like garbage “ or 3 cutters thru day 10” . They aren’t able to understand that it’s not the final outcome or solution and so it affects their moods, behaviors , and posts.

Exactly. I don’t get it?

But you keep harping on these Op runs at 10 plus days out…and how bad they look. And yes, Brett, if they showed a blizzard, at 8-11 days out we’d take them just as insignificantly. As Steve said…op runs at those lead times are BS for sensible weather. Yet you continue to use them to push your disdain for the weather. It’s frigid. It’s been frigid. Yes, we got boned in the snow department…especially compared to basically everyone around us…but that shit happens bro. Maybe we make up for it going forward at some point. I know you don’t like to hear this, but it’s really not even winter yet. But That’s a fact.

Why are folks dissecting op runs .. especially at long range ?

After today DCA will be -10 for December with 16 consecutive below average days

Here's the thing though. May not be true for other parts of the sub, but here in Wisconsin we can be solidly AA in Jan/Feb and it's still cold enough to snow. I'm firmly part of the camp who can do without the extended periods of barely cracking 10°F.

Another rainy New Years Eve!

Glad we were able to cash in before this upcoming boring stretch of weather

Ensembles are showing a negative NAO by Christmas . Have to watch that timeframe especially in the northeast .

4.5 here! Froze the water pipes. Makes the coldest we've been in a couple years. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

I think it’s kind of ridiculous that people can’t discuss what’s on the models to be honest. I don’t think I’m the problem. They show what they show. Somehow, if they showed a mega blizzard, I don’t think those same talking points would apply.

Personally for me…I’d be totally happy if NNE can grab a good snow event around Xmas. Still a ways out…so anything is still on the table.

Could be a brief burst of snow if this holds together.

I got the feeling we are going to have a early January thaw for the first two weeks of January then back to the colder pattern we had since late November into all of February.

God…you just never quit. WTF?

Ugly gfs OP run. It can change, it’s 10 days away, blah blah blah, we get it. However, those periods have been highlighted for potential cutters.

For Virginia?

4.1" for this event bringing my season total to 8.6"

I'll take my chances with stout HP at this range on that model in the upcoming pattern

Good on you for taking care of yourself. We all need to self reflect once in a while. Good for the soul. Yeah this place is full of "characters" with a myriad of backrounds, likes, beliefs, and we all have to parse through the weeds once in a while. It too is why I've gone in and out of the "cave" even during my time of winter. I no longer have the tollerance/energy to deal w/ too much shit...but can usually look the other way for the good of the board. I know, I've got my flaws, and have no prob being a dick....but usually when needed. But when I do, recipients know full well why they are getting reverse trolled, or hammered. If I'm ever deserving....have at it. I'm a big boy and can take criticism as needed. Even w/ the recent outbursts, Yard/Cand and the rest of us our pretty good peeps....at least in my mind. And to end on whats on my mind, I'm not convinced the see/saw will last for too long. AO/NAO headed notably neg aoa years end, so here's to hopin.

My fear is that it’s part of the base state. I think we revisit cold snaps many times this winter and it’s far from over in that front, but if we can’t start working it eastward like you said, it’s really going to be hard to move away from this clipper pattern in place over the eastern US. -NAO would be a huge step as @wncsnowpointed out. I’ll take my chances with a cad high but I’m struggling to see where the southern jet can get involved or we get enough digging out of the northern stream.

just know i lol'd hard at this. thanks Me either, Jesus

Cloudy, temps in the lower 20's, snowcover. What an impressive deep winter day for any time of the winter. I've seen a lot of winters where we never get a day like this even during peak climo. Getting my backpack packed for my afternoon hike. Shoot me a DM if you'd like to join me. I'll provide the cannabis lol

PF gets a good snowstorm on Boxing Day too!