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Damn, you're worse than me. I get annoyed when the GFS is on board, but I ain't crashing out about it. *but yeah, the GEFS does make me feel better. Shhh

Completely understand but at some point dry streaks end. Perhaps this is it

This is not a northern stream event so no. If it kicks out that energy it’s game on.

We haven't had the MJO shift to Niño phases until now.

The trend today has been to slow the timing down. Friday night start time here has turned into Saturday afternoon on most modeling

And I also agree with @PrinceFrederickWxabout @Roger Smith, who has put more effort into running contests and compiling statistics than anyone I know.

This map from Pivotal must include sleet and ice unlike the WxBell maps. It's significantly higher, and probably more realistic given the likelihood and additional sleet accums.

So it's basically GFS vs the world again? Got it.

I agree if something like the ICON is the end result, more than satisfied.

If I see “it’s going to miss” or “it won’t snow up here” type posts I’m just deleting them. Grow up, take it to banter or better yet just don’t post. It’s a storm 4-5 days away and there will be changes based on a complex evolution.

I remember Dec 2019 brought around 19” IMBY and then Feb 6 2010 dropped 25”. The latter storm felt much bigger and more of a beast. Not to downplay the December storm but Feb 2010 (even the first storm) was just a different league.

Good signs: - Relatively stable solutions run-to-run on the UKMET and CMC. - 12z ICON adjusted towards the ECM/UK/CMC solution - Storm evolution has trended towards a longer duration event in recent cycles - EPS, EPS-ICON, GEPS have trended north with QPF in recent cycles Not great signs: - The AIGFS has moved away from a big storm idea over the past few days - 12z GFS reversed a multi-cycle positive trend with a sudden shift towards wave-interference - EPS, GEPS still relatively dry (though that's typical considering ensemble spread at this lead time)

I can't remember a storm here in HKY where we were in the upper teens with zr my suspicion would be mostly IP over ZR, but again depends on where you are.

Euro run will be fascinating.

26 years to the day of Jan 25, 2000 Ninja'd by double d

12ZGFS was SOLID. Now's the time we want to see it creep south a bit. And the duration of this storm is just incredible!

@The 4 Seasons17.5" - Sandwich, MA ESandwich Coop might have slightly more

Bz going so far north is just crazy. May and October 2024 and November 2025 would have been baby shows compared to this, but south Bz. Getting into real power infrastructure threat territory, too. Massive what-if.

I am going to be the Debbie downer here... all season(last year) we have been seeing big precip events start drying up as the event approached... I know here we have southern system involvement, but any concerns here? We had like 1 overperformer rain event in the last year and most have been way less than forecast. Gives me pause this far out.

And 26 years to the date of the 1/25/00 miracle.

Tell them Apple Weather is out to lunch and you expect nothing less than 4'. Rattle them a little.

Fortunately the target is quite wide with this one compared to normal. We have some wiggle room one way or the other (as long as you have reasonable expectations). That being said, we are still more than 4 days out from the main event, which is about when we often see a big adjustment of some kind.

Let me introduce you to a concept called rosy retrospection. .

This is really a phenomenal storm underway, and even better it’s coming exactly a decade (plus a few days) after the incredible 2016 blizzard.

Hecs’ are just different. It requires cars to be barely visible.