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Even the GFS has a quite a bit of elevated CAPE with at least western sections on the instability gradient. It will be an interesting evening/overnight, especially if the NAM sort of verifies with the advection of rather impressive MUCAPE. The HRRR I think has been solid with the idea of convection moving into the region this evening but I think this may end up being a bit more impressive than modeled. These are tough environments, even more mesos to handle
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I can remember back in 1988 summer when it was hot. I took a thermometer in the creek at my place where we have a swimming hole in the middle of the creek. The hole is about 5 foot deep in between 2 big rocks. In between the rocks the current flows, thats where I held a wire that was attached to My thermometer about half a foot under the water. The temperature was 88. The water felt like bath water. You cooled off but it wasn't exactly what I call refreshing. If we get several days of hot temperatures this week I'll have to see what the temperature of the creek is this time. -
Fireworks Heat Contest W 7/1 - S 7/4 for Five MA Airports
GramaxRefugee replied to nw baltimore wx's topic in Mid Atlantic
DCA: 98, 102, 103, 101 BWI: 97, 102, 103, 100 IAD: 96, 99, 101, 98 SBY: 96, 99, 101, 98 RIC: 97, 100, 102, 99 Total Rain: 0.05 -
I planted Texas grass seed in my full sun spots for a reason…
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Also where there’s any compressional heating zone. That area just ahead of the seabreeze can really roast. Sometimes that’s around the Southern State Parkway/Five Towns to Roosevelt Field.
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86 yesterday on the south shore For Long Island, the Euro has a prominent sea breeze on Thursday so Euro only has 90s for the island that day. West wind comes back on Friday (Euro) so that would be our best chance at 100+. GFS has more of a westerly wind both days but there will probably be a sea breeze both days. Where it sets up during the day will dictate the max temps. Longer it holds off, the hotter it'll get
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Woke up to 24C/77F maybe locally more like 25C as of 7:30, I see CU in the distance with minor haze - that's my kind of morning! Low of 21C only. They adjusted for 44 humidex.
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Not exactly— there’s definitely indication that the line bends southeast. Down to Boston in the mix for severe along the coast.
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Still stuck in the clouds and fog, although point has 94 for the high today. It's the only 90+ temp in the forecast this week after yesterday's high temp busted by 22 degrees... .75" of rain the past 24 hours from a couple rounds.
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Junorch obs and discussion 2026
Damage In Tolland replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Wildfire smoke is back. Noticed some yesterday and today it’s very noticeable -
Pittsburgh PA Summer 2026 Thread
ChalkHillSnowNut replied to TheClimateChanger's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
NOT looking forward to the next several days -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Today should be our last sub 90 degree high until Monday. Mid to upper 80's today rising into the low to mid 90's tomorrow and then upper 90's in higher spots to near 100 in our valley locations both Thursday and Friday. Shower chances increase later July 4th with the days trending slightly cooler with highs by Monday in the upper 80's. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Today should be our last sub 90 degree high until Monday. Mid to upper 80's today rising into the low to mid 90's tomorrow and then upper 90's in higher spots to near 100 in our valley locations both Thursday and Friday. Shower chances increase later July 4th with the days trending slightly cooler with highs by Monday in the upper 80's. -
Glad the temps haven’t reached 100 yet, highs around 95 and only a couple heat advisories this summer which is pretty surprising.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
MDT daily record highs for July 1 thru July 4 -- 100, 104, 107, and 104. That is one tough set of records to breach. Tomorrow is obviously the most gettable but that's also the one day where my current forecast is under 100. We shall see but quite the historic heat wave on tap regardless. -
woke up to 80, lol
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Historically will this 3-4 day stretch sit near the top? I think last time 3 days of 100 or greater was July 93?
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Fireworks Heat Contest W 7/1 - S 7/4 for Five MA Airports
nw baltimore wx replied to nw baltimore wx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Just a reminder that this will stay open for entries and edits until about 11PM tonight. In the spirit of transparency, my entries above are final. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Of course station location placement and relative elevation -
The usual warm spots around the area have a shot at 104°-105° or maybe even warmer. Both the Euro and GFS have 850mb temperatures around +25 C Thursday and Friday. I believe July 2011 was the last time 850 mb temperatures reached this high.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We've definitely already peaked as far as the Pacific cold phase goes....likely pretty near neutral for the coming winter (slightly negative probably favored), but I still think it will be early next decade, around the solar min, when we truly switch into the new warm phase. Like a very big winter right after the solar min, as we begin the ascending phase. -
So frustrating to watch the lack of accountability on a day to day basis. They are making minor league mistakes on simple infield defensive plays and don't forget the baserunning gaffes. THe players are accountable at this level, but the coaching should also be held accountable. Definitely need to make some major changes before they get any better. Makes me wonder why they don't get someone like Joe Madden to come in and clean house.
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Where we thought pitching wouldn't be much of an issue for the Phillies this year... it is!
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Topped out at 92 yesterday.
