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I didn't even know it was supposed to snow. I got 1.5 inches of 25:1 fluff.

Looks like the follow up is for C/S VA instead of NC... does this trend continue? We'll find out after the commercial

Lumberton below zero?!? WOW We bottomed out at 24.2 last night. I’m assuming clouds moved in early and cleared out before moving back in, some pretty wild spikes and dips from 7 pm through 5 am

21 / 11 off a low of 8. cloudy the dusting fizzled to maybe some stray flurries and saturday is looking to follow the same drier evolution. Cold drops in Saturday, perhaps as cold or the coldest of the season yet 2/7 - 2/9. Moderation between 2/10 - 2/16 with some rain / mix pending on the 2/11-2/13 storm system. Beyond there cold may out do moderation/ warmth overall into the final 1/3 of the month.

Idealistically ... but correlations are not 1::1. You can get a coastal despite and have it just be a realization of the lower probability schemes. Same reason why you get popped by lightning walking out to collect the mail - just because there's a .0000000034% chance of getting electricuted fetching the mail, shit happens. The take away ... sorta like what Brian was just saying, is that your moving -1 to +1 SD in the PNA domain, which HA owns that work but it's applicable in with all domains frankly. Switching from +EPO to -EPO (so going the other direction) favors cold and storminess in Denver. Moving from +WPO to -WPO, with applied time lag, favors lowering EPO and/or rising the PNA ... (complex relay), both of which can then implicated cold loading into the N/A ... The theme here is changing indexes from a fair weather time, to a correlated not fair type, tends to be heralded in with an event. They are "restoring" events.

Crossed the freezing mark at just past 9am. It'll be interesting to see what happens to the pack today.

Just looked again, and my forecast for today is 31, not 28 (thats tomorrow). Yesterday it was showing 33-34 for today. Carry on. Enjoy mood flakes if you get em. Suns out here.

Looking at this picture again this morning got me wondering...could that heavier snow out east be due to some sound effect snow???

I could really do without ice lol

Ouch

20 for my low this morning. Thick cloud deck overhead.

No worries. I just know historically some have raised eyebrows in the past, so now I just back up my stuff, so you can raise eyebrows the other way I also know that sometimes things run warmer than advertised so i'm guessing that's what some are sharing. I posted at ruin a while back that I dont fret over 34 actual vs 31 forecast....unless there is precip fallin....then I'm madder than a hornet.

Quiet pattern, quiet forum (compared to others). Not as many enthusiasts post/analyze here in general it seems.

Some fun 6z EPS members but mostly for eastern areas though

GFS, Euro, HRRR, NAM all pretty much agree that this is a trace - 1" event for Wake. The biggest concern is that temperatures crash into the upper 20s right in time for the morning commute with residual moisture everywhere. 6Z EPS probabilities for RDU. ~70% chance of a trace, ~20% chance of 1". These aren't as high as they were yesterday but did increase slightly over the 00Z

HA defined her regime transitions from -1 SD to +1 SD or vice versa.

I do like 2023 as a late season analog (Feb-March), but the RNA shouldn't be as extreme.

Just caught the post after the reply. Thanks for the clarification, this actually makes much more sense. So ultimately, we *could* (if a storm signal remains) end up seeing guidance transition from the coastal look depiction to something more along the lines of an overrunning signal (or dare I say...cutter)? Would not be the first time we've seen this happen

Yea. I'm impressed with the AI suite overall.

Light snow in Pen-Mar. Not enough to really accum yet.

@ORH_wxman @CoastalWx Any thoughts on this one? Brockton, MA snow total from 4/1/97?

VDDay coming up..no better time to fully exorcise those Kristine demons.

The rising NAO has some modest positive correlation to enhancing precip over the eastern mid latitude continent... but the falling PNA, not so much. The combination of that might be better, because you have cold in place... With that falling PNA that implies rising heights into/over an initially cold lower troposphere. It's an overrunning signal ( just wrote about this above...). Which, we don't really see that right now in the guidance that show anything at all; they are indicating coastal stuff. It's all sketchy to me at best.

We crushed our prior record.

To be clear, I wasn't doubting you. I was surprised by the amount of difference in temp though. And I'm even more surprised by the discrepancy in your forecast high for today compared to mine. 8 degrees is a lot.