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  2. LakePaste25
    Not to mention, -PDO usually works against cold and snow. Funny that it’s magically now something that we want lmao.
  3. wxmeddler
    More bulk shear and more low level curvature. 10-15 kt southeaserlies at the surface with 20 kt southerlies at 850 would have done the trick for tornadoes. Mid-Level dry air pocket for more widespread winds.
  4. NoCORH4L
    Yeah, not what we want for mid July. I don't live in Labrador.
  5. snowman19
    Temps and snowfall aside for a second, my beef is this utter delusional weenie crap that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow magically overwhelm a historic ++ENSO is by far and away the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard in my entire life, hands down. Pure stupidity, fantasy and Land of Make Believe garbage. It completely defies the laws of physics and reality
  6. psv88
    Still have some smoke smell and haze
  7. mreaves
    Driving home from Presque Isle and the wind on 95 has been nasty.
  8. wxmeddler
    That's over where my parents live... my mom said the traffic light was out at Lake Waterford Park. Yeah, most of the damage was north / east of MD100 / MD10.
  9. powderfreak
    True, I just don’t like Fenway in HHH. You are sitting very tight with a bunch of equally sweaty fans ha. But it’s also nostalgic to be there when it’s hot. Childhood memories of humid evenings. Wrong weather for summer and the beach, but the ballpark is nice with a hoodie.
  10. eyewall
    The atmosphere is primed. Just need more shear. There is enough for organization northeast of the Triangle:
  11. Storm Clouds
    Any other personal weather stations nearby to you that you can check their rainfall total compared to yours? I use Weather Underground’s: https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=39.998000000000786&lon=-76.73099999999852&zoom=13&tl.play=0&tl.spd=2&groupSevere=1&groupHurricane=1&groupFire=1&groupCamsPhotos=1&groupRealEstate=1&eyedropper=0&extremes=0&fault=0&favs=0&femaflood=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&hurrevac=0&hur=0&labels=0&lightning=0&livesurge=0&mm=0&ndfd=0&rad=1&rad.num=1&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=81&rad.type=00Q&rad.type2=&rad.smo=1&rad.noc=1&rad.stm=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&sst=0&sat=0&seismicrisk=0&svr=0&ski=0&snowfall=0&stateLines=0&stormreports=0&tor=0&tfk=0&tsunami=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&cams=0&pix=0 and Tempist’s: https://tempestwx.com/map/39.9853/-76.6956/11 My tempest weather station is reporting .25 yesterday and stations around it are ranging from .18-.23, so I’d say that’s pretty darn close.
  12. frontranger8
    First hundo of the year looks likely by tomorrow.
  13. mappy
    She’s between Ritchie, 100, and Magothy Bridge RD. I think worst was north of her on the other side of 100
  14. mitchnick
    Tell it to the new Jamstec winter forecast. I'm just the messenger. Maps stink, but that's all they seem to offer.
  15. Torch Tiger
    it's very windy tbh, at least locally. nasty out.
  16. qg_omega
    It’s the strongest East based El Niño on record, this winter will be a blow torch of PAC air
  17. Voyager
    I got 0.10" more between 11 and 12 last night to take my total to 1.93" for the day. Caveat...what I mentioned about the USGS gauge being lower. It's total was 1.45". My dilemma. Which is more accurate? A tipping bucket or a hepatic gauge?
  18. snowman19
    I’m going to say it, this totally asinine, delusional wishcast going around twitter, that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow override and play a bigger role than the strongest east-based, super El Niño in history isn’t even worthy of a response. It’s the little game the usual suspects on the east coast play every year at this time. Complete idiocy
  19. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    For those looking for international sourcing, https://retaildiscountprograms.online/# is highly useful.
  20. WxWatcher007
    Not time to do an analysis but I want to note that the intensity trend was increasing before the designation on some ensemble guidance, including quite an outlier on the EPS. If this stays further south there is a window more more modest development as it moves toward the western Gulf. But we'll see what recon finds and get that data assimilated so hurricane models and other guidance can get a better sense of things. Seeing GDM with some modest members is very interesting. Note sure what the EPS sees but let's see if 12z is similar. I think the NHC opening with a 60mph landfall with land interaction forecast should tell us this has potential.
  21. mitchnick
    Lol. That's definitely the 3rd time you pulled up 23/24 when you tried to back door dispute every seasonal forecast. First the NMME, then the Euro seasonal, and the Cfs2 at least this time if not more. As been discussed many times, this year ain't 23/24. But at this point, none of the seasonal modeling is showing anything close to 23/24. But I'm sure if one does, we'll see it posted by you more than 3 or 4 times. Honestly, I seriously believe you want it to be warm. Deny it all you want, but that's the impression I'm getting from you at this point.
  22. powderfreak
    So if the streak ends, we know who to blame … perfect weather for the tight Fenway experience. Though if they win, you can’t miss another game this season.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS and JMA have a Modoki look, which I don't recall seeing on guidance in 2023. I don't think there is any way in hell we get that in the seasonal mean given the magnitude of this event, but I also wouldn't ignore it altogether. We should see some variability.
  24. LakePaste25
    Yeah, the cooling W pac kicking off trades and loss of equatorial ocean heat to the atmosphere always argues for this whenever we go super nino IMO.
  25. WxWatcher007
    He's a clown, but last year it all but ended on 7/30.
  26. WxWatcher007
    Heyyy we have homebrew No time to do much analysis right now, but the intensity trend has been ticking up with models starting to latch onto the idea that this stays over water. If this stays south of Louisiana, watch out.
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