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LI is always on a razors edge. The warm nose never fails-it has hindered many a storm. Very rarely do we have storms on LI that do not get the warm nose

I think 8-12 in portland and southern maine is going to bust as well.

This is utterly wild.

Updated. Better: GFS RGEM HRDPS Worse: NAM RRFS ICON Held: GFSAI

GFS trying to bring the midweek snowshowers it seems

Warmer runs you can see the STJ pumping a little harder which helps keep primary a tad more juiced and hangin on longer. Thats my take anyways. GFS really is the best way to win this one and verbatim HH was a tough better once coastal pops as column cools and we are once again safe vertically speakin.

I definitely think we pound heavy snow for a while on Sun morning/afternoon. That's a ton of moisture coming north and being lifted.

@Scraff consuming this for HH

Reasonable near me. But a chance they bust too low in northern Bristol/Plymouth.

Nothing from MRX has been updated since 1:30 or so

RAP has snow here in Wake at 6:00 PM tomorrow night, while the others don't have precip here until after midnight.

Risky forecast giving a haircut on south shore down near PYM/Duxbury/GHG/Carver....while it's possible they get sleeted on, they could really stack it up from ocean enhancement too.

Mesonet stations out west showing temps really diving. Frostburg down to 20°, Bittinger down to 18°, with single digit wind chills.

I don’t like these trends

RRFS was definitely worse

I think we’re okay for now with the NAM. It seems to be motivated by synoptic stuff imo which seems unlikely for the NAM to lead the way on.

GFS just again plows the area lmfao

It went from the mantle to the garbage can, Some get shook pretty easy.

Man, Long Island is on a razors edge. Close enough where its still feasible a small change in track makes a huge difference but still, models almost always underdo mid-level warmth and low-level cold. I'm sticking with a general 8-12 island wide though... counting on the thump coming in like a banshee

Maybe the GFS is just right?

MRX not do an AFD around 4pm today? Noticed ice cumulation map changed

That’s ugly for the GSP metro area. Yikes.

This front is no joke. Frederick: 41 State College: 16 Bradford, PA: 0

GFS held serve. Man do I wanna believe. NAM's hard not to consider tho. 0z's gonna be boom r bust for LSV. If Euro holds, I'll breathe a little better.