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There may very well be a reduction in the # of storms due to GW because it has warmed the poles much more than the tropics. Because tropical systems bring heat out of the tropics to higher latitudes, it’s possible that the lower contrast means fewer storms albeit with perhaps stronger storms on average due to the warming oceans. Now that being said, we’ve had stronger storms in the Atlantic basin with more cat 5 since 2016 per year than for the prior period. But OTOH, I do wonder if just having warmer oceans is enough to generate stronger storms. Isn’t it the contrast of the avg tropical ocean temp vs the avg global temp that matters most? The oceans in the tropical/subtropical regions are obviously warmer, but the rest of the globe is warmer, too. Your thoughts?

0.25" of anvil rain here. More rounds of rain to come.

Sunday looks shot, but if we stay dry most of the week it may be mostly 60s with 40s/50s at night. It's just a lot of NE flow.

It's early in terms of timing, but Sunday afternoon/evening appear to have the highest chance of heavier rain.

Look at how bad it did south of the Aleutian islands That's why seasonal models showing a -200dm +PNA this Feb I don't think will be right. The pattern hasn't been happening recently.

Models keep on wavering from a significant cool shot to maybe a backdoor front that would mostly benefit the East. I honestly hope for just normal temps by the end of September. This never ending summer has run it's course. 84 for a high today which is stupid for here.

I hope the rain holds off until the evening. I'm having a house warming party Sunday afternoon and there's 20 people coming. I'm hoping to be able to use the deck for an indoor/ outdoor party.

Do you believe in the magic of the Equinox?

Mine has too, hope to thicken the lawn this fall.

We aren't there yet. This upcoming period is probably only marginally related to the Nino. The atmospheric response in our area will likely become more notable in another month or so. Right now its about obliterating the drought. Concern about the thermals is way out there, and we know it will be problematic.

Nothing at 5pm

The signal that Katrina was the sure sign of global warming causing ever increasing destruction to the USA was Gore style hype.

I mean it is a niño, precip isn’t a problem. It’s the thermals you gotta watch come wintertime.

Anyway we get out of this next week without it being miserable? I need some hope.

Is the steadier/heavier rain trending later in the day? Ive seen some forecast hinting at that but others not so much. Im trying to figure how doable some outdoor events will be Sun mid morning to early afternoon

One can hope.

Here are some conceptual examples of what this would look like with winter temperatures:

Cfs2 has a seperate link for the coming month. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/monthly/

Congrats that’s a big moment and a special time for you and her. I graduated in 2004 and have been a season ticket holder ever since. Have a great time!

Follow-up: I emailed the 2 contacts who are listed at this CFSv2 site. Just minutes later, the site was updated! Here’s the brand new latest 10 day mean RONI forecast: as expected, the progged peak dropped even further to +2.8. Compare that to the +3.5 runs of late July. It appears it could even drop to +2.75 later this month based on the red vs blue lines:

Scorching high of 94 after a low of 69. Hopefully we won't see anymore mid 90's.