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My favorite inv trough is prob March 2013 (or 14?)..but honestly can't remember any notable ones since down this way

Looks awful compared to 00z and 6z

I swear if the piedmont scores big again before us im packing up and moving.

18z HRRR is good for I-66 to US 50 and points south.

I saw some birds heading south earlier.. a little late. They were probably expecting another warm winter

You don’t remember the Norlun in early Jan 11? 10 inches here. It was awesome.

When is this fraud 5 supposedly progged for? They’re notoriously hard to pin down…when they do rarely happen.

Some nice GEFS members for next week

s/w over central high plains is notably more pronounced in past few runs of GFS helping our poor flattened out s/w get slightly more ageostrophic winds overhead us. Now, that says nothing about the metric ton of dry air between 925 and 850 left behind by the passing subsidence/high. You can have all the lift at 500 in the world and still not get precipitation at the surface if your spread at 925 is -5/-30.

I’d love more but this is alright. Hopefully we’re finding the floor.

What is crazy is that the Euro Weeklies had this timeframe as a bullseye before they infamously had an infinite loop of feedback over the Southwest...and pumped crazy temps into the East. Now, we are tracking a potentially light winter wx event for northern areas of the forum. I wouldn't be surprised for glaze to show up further south.

I recall one when I was high school and another in college . Both dropped like 5-6” in a very narrow zone over the central portion of CT . But west of about HFD the stars were out

After today’s runs, The clouds tonight through the full moon maybe the most interesting weather down here this winter.

MRX noted in their disco that soundings indicate all snow in NE TN but light. Again, time of day is important. If this comes in at night, could be frozen for many areas.

This one seems legit

Looks like a little lee side slp???

It would not at all surprise me to see this trend SE or NW. LOL. The cold could push more than expected...we have seen that trend on a lot of models at 18z. OTH, we have all seen systems jog northwest at the last minute. I need to look at the 500 vort map. The RAP is a good model. To some extent, we see that same setup on other models...just not as juicy. Plenty to track beyond this event as well. In the valleys, we are trying to get a head start on climatology.

I’m afraid we can’t win fellas! One of these days it’s coming to our doorstep and we will will rejoice.

Graf is warmer on recent runs. Essentially all rain south of Wilkes, Yadkin counties in the west. Triad dangerously close unless you’re a border county.

I can attest to how sharp the line is from 1"+ to .2. I got about .2 and 1 mile west actually needed to be plowed.

Really was an s tier example of mood dust kind of day

18z Euro wasn’t ideal although qpf w such small amounts is basically noise

Invt fraud 5 but when its not.

@The 4 SeasonsNo part of Tolland had 1.3” a dusting to 1/4”. I also don’t believe that Vernon total . Doesn’t matter really but just letting you know .