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Weeklies look nice going into December Nice negative NAO and plenty of cold . Having the PV weak will help us

Weeklies look nice going into December Nice negative NAO and plenty of cold . Having the PV weak will help us

2021-2022 was actually our one repreieve from the seasnal +WPO.

Carson leaving Ch 6 (again). Off to some Maine conservation/climate role. Good luck, but ditch the hair piece.

Still neck-and-neck with 2024....see no reason it will deviate much.

Give it another week.

Yeah but that is an historical marine heatwave in the north Pacific. Sure yes doesn't look like it will bring a prolonged +TNH but with the forecast being neutral enso for the second part of winter it's a toss up.

If that train of systems be a littler further south, it would be more run.

Yay?

Weak Nina's arent the end all. My question is how much has the background state changed since 2000? I am not hating what I am seeing so far. A white Christmas would be nice for a change. 2009 and 2020 were the last two out this way.

could be a red flag. yep. that and the amplitude. euro’s not free of blame in doing this in that range. AIF/ICON/UKMET trended tho. just sayn’ Again there’s index support fwiw

Wind damage Wednesday night / Thursday

That's a time that correlates with -NAO from around Christmas to the 1st week of January

wow, the ECMWF is super aggressive with the weakening of the SPV early on. can't remember the last time i've seen a SPV potentially this weak to start a winter

It certainly wasn’t our deepest early season dump by any means, but the snow is reasonably dense as you mentioned, and thus far it’s had plenty of staying power. I was watching The Weather Channel this morning, and they had the Sugarbush Gate House Plaza View Webcam playing on the side of the screen during one of their segments as they often do – I was surprised to see how low the snow line was on Spring Fling. Since the base area there is just a bit below 1,500’, that snow on Spring Fling looks like it’s persisting below 2,000’, and it’s obviously even more substantial higher up as the still image below shows. A quick run through the GFS shows a pattern that looks pretty similar to what it was depicting a few days ago, with approximately 6 storms in the queue out through roughly the 19th of the month. They would all have some snow potential to varying degrees. This morning on TWC, Jim Cantore walked through the modeling for the next week in our area and talked about the systems. That Friday/Saturday system looks like it’s the warmest, with the least snow potential, but the BTV NWS is talking about the general pattern in their discussion – you can tell they see the queue of potential storms as well with the wording ”No less than 3 discrete systems are on track to cross the region during the period…”: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 147 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 138 PM EST Monday...As mentioned last night, our area remains in an active weather pattern in the late week time frame as the mean core of the northern stream westerlies continue their seasonal migration southward into the northern tier of the country. No less than 3 discrete systems are on track to cross the region during the period, the first coming Wed/Wed night, with the others swinging through Friday/Friday night and again by next Sunday/Sunday night. The general idea is to run with higher, 60-90% precipitation probabilities with each system, the dominant p-type falling largely as rain in the lower elevations. A mix of rains/wet snows at elevation is more likely on the back side of these features, especially Wednesday night and potentially by next Sunday night as deeper meridional troughing digs across the eastern third of the CONUS. Temperatures to remain seasonably cool through the period, with diurnal variation somewhat tempered by an abundance of typical November cloud cover. Now that we’re into November, we’re hitting the point where “seasonable” means snow, so all these systems should be of potential interest. With the recent snowfall persisting at various elevations, the active pattern, and no huge systems expected to go barreling up through the Great Lakes to our west, it got me wondering about the start of the winter snowpack. I knew we were a bit on the early side to start the snowpack, so I went to the data to see what the actual numbers said. With the available data from 68 seasons, the mean start date for the Mt. Mansfield snowpack is 11/16, with the median date at 11/15, the mode at 11/18, and the S.D. at 14.5 days. So if the snows from Oct 31/Nov 1 were to persist, it wouldn’t be all that unusual. The snowpack should start by November 1st in about 15% of seasons. I was surprised to find that the snowpack actually starts in October in roughly 13% of seasons. It’s also interesting to note that the past three seasons have helped push the median start date for the start of the continuous snowpack on Mt. Mansfield forward in time. The past three seasons have had very respectable start dates for the Mansfield snowpack (11/14/22, 10/30/23, and 11/12/24), which represent start dates of 2, 17, and 4 days ahead of the mean, respectively. Obviously the 10/30/23 start date was the heavy hitter here with respect to any movement in the mean. The addition of those dates didn’t budge the mean start date from where it was at 11/16, but they did move the median from 11/16 up a day to 11/15. It’s far from a “lock” that the recent snow we’ve had would be the start of the snowpack for the season (who knows what will happen with these upcoming storms, and what will go on in later November and December), but the current situation is such that it will be interesting to watch and see how it plays out. I guess I hadn’t noticed it before, but when averaged out as shown by the black line in Matt Parrilla’s plot below, the “average” snowpack start is back in mid to late October. Those data average out all the starts and stops that the snowpack has in a real year though, so that’s where you get the difference in that ~10/22 snowpack start vs. the actual 11/16 mean for the start of the continuous snowpack.

Just looking at this afternoon's Euro Weeklies.... 1. Still looks like a warm up mid month followed by winter after Thanksgiving. December 1-15 looks like a good window for cold. 2. Fly in the ointment is a little belly ridge over Texas which might try to shunt systems to our north. 3. The control run is very aggressive. 4. The Euro will often(sometimes woefully) under model eastern cold at range. It is shoulder season, and it could still be badly wrong. 5. American LR ext modeling (Euro Weeklies equivalent) will be cold on some runs for December and at other times....hook a mid continent trough into the NAO. We really might not want a -NAO in December. Still too early in the season to be a true playa IMHO. 6. Overall, I still like a cold start to December which is followed by a warm-up. That fits the pattern of recent winters. Cosgrove's "late start" to winter idea is supported by this morning's GFS seasonals. I still think it gets cold early, warms, and then is a crap shoot. I tend to favor a return to winter after mid-late January. That second cold shot often favors western areas of our forum. This year, due to the QBO, I think the cold manages to get to the spine of the Apps.

Yes, and you can find them for less than $50. Remembering to empty, especially during winter when the water can ice up and crack the gauge is the hardest part. I may or may not have done that once or twice over the years

Heh, life expectancy can have multiple definitions - depending on context..etc. First of all, it's not just about CC killing people. That's childish really. I just hear this doubter's tactic all the time, too. Not sure if it is because they can't see the bigger picture, or they have some other aspect about their minds that limits their perceptions into very narrow inclusions. I'm not saying it's you, but too often retorts are myopically linear like that. Reductive, when not conflating. Reductive really is the best word for it, where they either do not understanding or are predisposed to ignore the fuller extent of nuanced complexity that really constructs the topic at hand. Or, are just being immorally devices in only giving data that supports their side. Why not give it a try? The upshot is that it's trying to save lives. I mean like what's the doubter point- there is none. Don't do anything because one thinks their is no risk, is a Darwinian Award looking for a ceremonial. The total assessment of life expectancy comes from any array of additions and subtractions of factors, both of which are also changing in time. Ex, a human at birth in 2025 has a much longer life expectancy than 1725 because of improv(e)(ing) medical standards relative to era. Other discoveries since and including the advantages of, the Industrial Revolution, is why the population of the world soared billions since 1750. This is all vastly more pervasively effecting the extension of life than millions dying from CC. (CC killing millions + population either opting out, or losing birth capacity) / 2 = some hindrance to life expectancy that has, so far, much less weight than the advantages of the last 200 years - the trailing generations of which are yet also advantaged ever more. But this is all a situation that is changing. The bottom line is... people will doubt whatever it is they don't want/can't or agenda to admit, until it causes them pain. There is no such thing in their mind as a CC. There is no such thing as a polluted penis problem. They’ll defiantly remain hard headed until they suffer, then? they are usually evangelical going the other way. I don’t usually engage in this level of the discussion because I find this limitation blocking sight of subject at hand to be all but an impossible barrier. so … just have to wait it out. Eventually denial will be replaced by shame

Sort of a signal for something light maybe a couple days later with a WF moving in as well.

ASO 2025 RONI: -0.78

We Euro!

Good idea, I used to have one but it cracked after years of use. Never replaced it but they are good.

The first storm worth watching is showing up on the globals for the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Not thread-worthy yet, as there's still a lot to work out, but someone in the sub may see their first flakes/(sticking snow??) of the year. EDIT: Just saw ya'll talking about it in the November thread.

Would be cool if we could get a repeat of those thunder snow squalls that we saw last year.

Don't see much EPS support.