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Starting to make my way back home. Can’t get over how gorgeous the Alps are. Picture taken at Fort La Redoute right on the Italy/France border at 7900 ft, with Mt Blanc in the background (La Thuile/La Rosiere ski area)

0z EPS is much cooler than the GEFS in the extended

Overnight models really like Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning

It was actually an impressive -WPO/-PNA hybrid December.. +300dm anomaly for the month is rare. -PNA doesn't go real warm in the Northeast in December And -WPO is cold in December (default is positive, so it's opposite) The combination of those two gave us almost perfectly the anomaly composition for the month. Although it is interesting that the Southwest and Lower Midwest were so warm.. even though the pattern supports a ridge there, it did go much more extreme than the usual correlation. 2021 also had a +300dm N. pacific ridge, although it was more RNA-oriented

ill be watching January 15th timeframe for something big!

Followup: 0Z vs 12Z Chicago lowest min (F) Jan 6+: Euro: -15 vs +22 EPS: +16 vs +22 GFS: +29 vs +30 GEFS: +25 vs +25 So, whereas Euro suite is colder, GFS suite is unchanged

Some good articles on this one! Here’s one from Skilling: https://wgntv.com/weather/weather-blog/chicagos-heart-attack-snowstorm-of-dec-15-1987/amp/

That’s a top-notch list to make if you are hoping for a snowy rest of the winter as well. I genuinely do not understand how any winter wx lovers in the Tri-State found December disappointing. Plenty of reasons for optimism this year after a string of true ratters.

I was on the rail trail up here. I’m not knowledgeable enough to know if the trails are in good condition but a lot of folks were out today, hikers and riders.

Nah-it's done.

I posted in the banter thread since today is the anniversary: The Monster Snow Storm of ‘99. It was relatively well-forecast, although the full extent of the storm wasn’t known until a couple days before. My grandpa passed away a few days after Christmas, and I can distinctly remember my uncle saying two days before the storm hit “God asked John what he wanted to leave behind for his family, and he said a big ass snowstorm!” It was a Saturday when the snow began and the tv chief meteorologists were working, cutting in occasionally with updates. That was highly unusual. At home, there was a plastic pipe that stuck out of the ground in the neighbor’s yard about a foot up. I remember watching the snow slowly climb up and around it until it was covered… and then some. When it was all said and done we had 18” on the ground. Still a personal record. Sadly, I didn’t get to enjoy it as I got a horrible stomach flu that night. By Tuesday, I was finally feeling better and was astonished by how brightly the sun shined off the giant blanket of snow. There were a number off roof and structural collapses, including the patio roof at my grandma and grandpa’s house. Schools finally reopened on Wednesday but closed again Thursday after an advisory-level snow Wednesday night. Usually, we wouldn’t bat an eye at 4” of snow, but with 18” on the ground, it overwhelmed clean up crews. I was 13 and remember the snow piles in my own front yard taller than a me. It was wild seeing walls of snow on either side of me while walking through the neighborhood. Nothing has come close to that event. There was a one-two punch from a system and lake-effect that dropped 14” on NYD ‘08. And several events that have dropped double digits, but nothing like ‘99. (I should mention, GHD I dryslotted us, and I was living in Central IL for GHD II). The only other storm that has had as much of an impact was the ice storm in January of 2002. That was a more localized event. Half inch of ice with 2-3” of heavy snow on top plus high winds devastated the electric grid. Countless tree limbs down and no power for four days. It took several days before temps rose above freezing. Very memorable but not sure I’d like to re-live it.

A little rant on the PDO In Fall 2024, the PDO hit its lowest monthly reading since the mid 1800s. That easily carried a <-1 state through last Winter. This July, it crushed last Fall's record, hitting -4.18, ensuring another <-1 PDO Winter, regardless of what unfolds in the H5 pattern. The PNA so far this Winter since Dec 1st, has been negative every single day. CPC has that continuing through the 1st week of January, and what was previously looking like a bounce positive mid-month is not looking so sure with todays long range models holding a N. Pacific ridge. +PNA is our best coastal low pattern. From the gulf of mexico, to maine, Miller A's and Miller B's, +PNA is the way to bomb low pressures on the east coast. When the PNA is negative, that's a coastal high pressure pattern. This year, going into December, we had 21 of the last 29 months being +PNA! Since the 23-24 El Nino turned to negative-ENSO we still had 17 of 25 months +PNA. It was looking like we could possibly see a +PNA Winter! 2018-2024 had the most -PNA February and March, for a 7 year period, by 140%! On all records, the highest 7-consecutive year anomaly was -NAO in January 1960's at +95dm.. then we hit +140dm for a 7-year period Feb-March -PNA 2018-2024. The PDO is in a decadal negative state, and it's really peaking right now. I was hoping after the 23-24 El Nino we would start moving away from that, but it looks like there is still long ways to go..

Close to the same timeframe- on the GEFS ens mean it looks like a trailing wave with the previous lakes cutter moving towards the 50-50 region and upper ridging over Baffin- not an actual block, more transient in nature but can still work with timing. Verbatim there is snow for the region on the mean here.

No, the original discussion that I have been a part of was also about Canada and AK. See the posts he was responding to.

Why the good runs at 0z tonight? At first glance, it looks like wx modeling is holding onto the NAO longer. It gets knocked down, but quickly rebuilds. I have noticed over the years that sometimes modeling will mistakenly remove it too quickly. Is that happening now? Maybe. To early to be sure. The NAO is notoriously difficult to model. Good trends though at 0z.

This has to be the most boring Winter I've experienced model tracking-wise. The southern stream is dead and we are in an "in between" pattern all the time. At least when it's warm that's exciting because it's one side of a wave. This is just endless nothingness. I guess I should be thankful for the one storm in early Dec.

No idea if that will verify, but if anything, the Euro has stuck pretty consistently to this look that it has at 0z. Post 300 is frigid. That is certainly a plausible solution given the EPO ridge. It also fits the 500 pattern that ensembles have been showing for several days, but this run has cold to fill the trough. The 0z GEM has cold embedded as well, and so does the AI Euro. The 0z Euro actually bridges the EPO into Siberia. We take that run 10/10 times. One thing of note...I have noted I prefer the GFS at the end of shoulder season and into December. And not just because it has maintained a more favorable look, but the Euro tends to do a bit better IMHO during mid winter as the long wave pattern stabilizes. Let's see if it continues to lead the way. No promises from me, but it will be interesting to see models "react" to what might well be an EPO ridge about to form. I want to see that ridge build, before really getting overly excited. With modeling struggling this winter, we need to see it inside of d5 which it almost is.

Ah so the late November one did verify! (So used to them not verifying I wasn't sure, lol). Now I wonder if we are still seeing any lagged effects from it? (Unless it wasn't thst strong?)

This year was only a couple of days before December.....1981 did. They are usually later.

Looks to me like the 0z Euro is about to bring it(cold).

I see. Guess Feb SSWs benefit you guys a bit more since your winter goes deeper into March, lol ...So when's the last time we had a big SSW in like December or January?

Mid month is the window. See my previous post(or the one before that i cant remember lol). I didn't look at the AI tools, just the conventional Ens guidance. Signal is there on all 3. No guarantees ofc.

I saw the track in the pic and was wondering.

You should be. It’s a cool thing to see. Even if it isn’t a 16” snowstorm.

Early March 2019 had a good storm in SNE...