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@NorthArlington101 do you have the closeup version? This is the closest PW gets

Major ice storm set ups are tenuous at best. 1998 had a low stalled out over the lakes and high pressure in just the right place in Quebec. That’s what allowed a good fetch of gulf moisture to ride into the Arctic air for days.,

RGEM is another nice hit

Had graupel as well, didn't know what it was at first. Looked like bits of styrofoam coming from the sky.

Should hold serve, at least?

We all take

Looking at the soundings, looks like a deep layer of saturation that should support decent snow growth. If we play everything right, maybe close to a warning event especially just east of my area. Port Jefferson to around Riverhead is usually good in these.

I’m at 42 and it does look a bit better oriented

Its not heavy snow... but a good 6 to 8 hours of snow across most of the region on the 18z RGEM

RGEM holds

thought the TPV looked better tilted at 36 to me..but we'll see how it pans out.

RGEM looks a hair worse through 30 to me

European & Canadian 12z products show another stratospheric warming event in the late period. GFS products had only minor. But the 12z Eurp OP, EPS products & the Canadian spilt the PV at 10mb & 50mb. Here's the Euro OP: 50mb 10mb The EPS control is more aggressive with the strat warmth. Regardless of how strong this should continue to prevent the STP from getting carried away & increase chances of HLB. Hopefully, at some point maybe favorable. Right now it is just a "take note" & see if this goes anywhere.

Yesterday forecast: Today:

Love the "New and Improved" NAM, lol, i.e., the RRFS, which will be replacing both NAMs sometime next year (supposedly).

palms gonna be loving the upcoming pattern

Nice man! Send us some pics from out there. Im sure it's absolutely beautiful.

-5 anomaly with 40* being climo.

I'm figuring they would wait till after the 00z suite before issuing anything tbh

Yeah I normally trust the higher res version more less than 48 hours out. The regular NAM often doesn’t make much sense with mesoscale features due to its lower resolution.

RRFS is a warning event pretty much on S coast lol.

Here, I'll save you the trouble.

Plus it’ll be relatively short lived.

Tough call for them. Take a little extra time to think it through

Kinda late from LWX for their afternoon AFD