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Whatever ya say dude. I'm not arguing with you about it.

The surface depiction is very sensitive to the timing of the negative tilt and closing off, correct?

Puff the magic dragon .. lived by the sea?

I don't think some people realize what a big deal this is going to be even if we only have a SECS with Arctic air in place and over foot of snow already on the ground - think about it - going to be difficult to plow and remove from driveways......

Yeah. I’m pretty sure I haven’t seen that info in the weenie handbook. Maybe it’s in a later chapter? I don’t know. I hate reading books. Anything after the cover of the book— I just put it down and go eat a plate of bitchin nachos instead.

I think my frustration is that some here expect every model run to show the perfect hit all the time, or dont realize that just because some model shows something good a week out, its a rarity that they lock in (last week despite last minute taint, was largely a lock from many models from waayy out there at 7 days). What we see this week is more typical gyrations and how it goes MOST times. If youre new to this, please keep this in mind when a model doesnt show you what you want. It doesnt work that way in this business, and sometimes we find ourselves shoehornin our way into events. Pattern looks great, but it doesnt mean its a lock.

Def don't hate Euro yet 5h at 078

Pretty big jump west there. Curious to see eps

A NWS office doesn't "know better" than others if their forecast is an outlier and then they shift towards consensus the day of. They were behind the curve on the last storm.

What was the Canadian model run like? I feel like that did best at this point last week

Euro AI…and this is just 10:1..substantial westward expansion

I'll have to see the euros h5 vort panels to compare but right now the differences between the euro and gfs are pretty small. Gfs is just a little quicker to close off and go negative. Like what I said recently with the euro trough pointing at 1 o'clock and the gfs at high noon. If the euro moves that direction at 0z it gets real interesting

Just compared the H5 and it is markedly so much better.

So the question is do I hate on the gfs again before 00z for double or nothing?

LOL, in it to win it! Until it is clear this opportunity has passed us.

Gefs AI

18z Euro is better!

2022

Sasquatch

Gefs AI

i can only see the 18z AI EC but to me it wobbles west ever so slightly but not significantly different from the past 3-4 runs. Snow output is similar to the 6z.

We’re not out of this yet.