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Any chance Wednesday nights deal is some light icing interior and snow north of 90?

The system that improved the most today on both EPS and Euro Skynet was Friday night/early Saturday. Doesn’t get shredded as much but also pretty cold too. Monday still has the most upside imho, but Friday night could end up pretty good too if we trend it like today. Monday definitely got some more support too today. But being 8 days out makes it less meaningful when you see a model shift.

Don't know but I would hit EURO SKYNET all day

We have had some timely blocking episodes in recent winters, but not anything I would consider sustained. A transient -NAO doesnt mean there is an atmospheric block. Maybe 2009-10 was a unicorn and we never see that again, but I hope that's not the case.

Let’s split the difference.

Kind of funny AI is suppressed mid week and euro legacy models are congrats Dendrite.

You can see it here on the 174hrs ensemble slp anomaly map. Scroll to 180hrs, 186hrs and 192hrs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026021512&fh=174

Given it was also my very early days of making maps, I put north foster coop too far north. It can extend a bit further south with the 12”+ on both maps.

I did maps for April ‘87 and May ‘77 almost 20 years ago. They are of course, primitive MS paint jobs but they still give a decent idea. Only annoying thing is for some reason I did not use to nearest tenth in the April ‘87 map.

I dunno. This just doesnt look like a a winner baby, not for our latitude. Now a stronger low along the coast, you would have something up your way at least. It doesnt really deepen until its well offshore though. And the High to the NE with lower pressure to the NW, kinda inverted from what we want, esp in a marginal Pacific airmass. Not like we have an antecedent cold air mass in place, but retreating. Its freaking mild air leading in. I think we agree in general, but I just don't think it applies in all marginal situations. A slightly stronger High to the north, even with the same weakish low and track might have been enough to tip the scales up your way. Its the fine details in a marginal setup that can make the difference.

Guess that was fun. For a minute. Didn’t think about the miller B idea. This will end poorly unless you are in Scranton.

Even almost a quarter give ORH 20”+. Definitely the most aggressive in a while. Lot of ways for it to screw up but the benefit of having like 3-4 different waves is you also have a decent chance of one or two of them working out.

Light rain in Fallston - any precip is welcome at this point.

I have... By Euro I had 'Euro product suite' in mind.

4 shots

Yep

If it’s already germinated, yes. Your rye is going to die off when we start getting warm anyways, so you’re fine. I’d only avoid pre emergent if you have plans to overseed/add plugs to the existing Bermuda.

Moist.

About a third give you 17”+ not too shabby .. I hope we either go spring or just go all on snow onslaught

Guess you have not seen the EPS.

There are some huge numbers i counted 23 eps members with over a foot By the 24th and the 20 plus club oh my.

EPS and AI EPS are both damp and cold next weekend. And potentially snowy, but looks miller-b with better luck to PA and north. Enough to keep me intrigued for another week for sure

I've noticed that since these late Feb aspects have begun to emerge ... the GFS heredity of products overall are less shy about committing to spring. The Euro is trying to sell eternal storm and cold. The index/numerics of either ensemble means don't statistically support what the operational Euros have been trying to sell. Just cautioning folks... prepare to be disappointed. The upshot? if you are not, then there was no risk. it's possible the GFS is too warm, but... it has March and improving sun and CC and what have you backing the indexes, all of which suggesting otherwise.

Wpc latest has 1.25 qpf probably all or mostly snow for here. Probably same for s tv and nw mass. This is thru 0z 23rd. More to come I’d think.