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I was just thinking earlier today, what if the January thaw that we normally get was displaced by a few weeks into December instead of January. Wouldn’t that be something! Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling for that, nor do I even know if there’s any precedent for that. It’s just a thought I had.

Yeah fwiw we get an EPO ridge by mid month and the NA looks decent too. This h5 look has been persistent over multiple runs so we shall see.

I can't swear it isn't redundant, but a lot of the climate data we look at comes from there.

Trending towards the powerhouse Scandinavian block scenario in that 8-10 range on the EPS. As a consequence of that, it's also trending towards a powerhouse Greenland block scenario arriving in the longer range 11-15 day clusters.

There is going to be a pattern reshuffle eventually. As far as part of January being warm. We always have at least one week of warm weather in January. Also known as the January thaw. Maybe we’re having it in December instead. People need to remind themselves that the biggest snows for Tennessee usually occur in February. Especially for West and Middle Tennessee.

It’s truly unbelievable that people say they want snow, but they seem to be more happier with the warmer temps. I call them trolls. If winter is really over like they say, why are they even chatting in a winter forum?

With not much going on weather wise right now it’s a good time to take some chlorinated water and convert it to RO water stripping the chlorine and minerals out to run in the humidifier in the greenhouse.

It’s definitely not a stable look for sure, but it’s darn persistent on guidance in some shape or form. It’s just bizarre to me. I can’t recall anything like it. Of course we can’t get a nice deep trough out west and a SE ridge with that look because if we did, I feel like it would be a fun pattern. But God forbid we have something in our favor.

What did you do to snowhole? Lol

Carver, I believe if the nao can become west based, we will be in better shape. Hoping we don't squander most of January on warmer than normal. Still need a pattern reshuffle to have a chance later imo

If we care about the euro weeklies, looks like things are mostly crappy until the last week (19-26 Jan) when the PAC ridge shifts east into Alaska and BC. Until then…ehhh…

Also Jan 7, 2004 - Feb 3, 2004 at EWR consecutive below daily dep

It would be nice to experience a good thunderstorm this time of year. There is also a myth to having a thunderstorm in winter. Something like within 10 days of a thunderstorm in winter there will be a snowstorm.

#wedge

The period Dec 18, 2000 - Jan 10, 2001 was for EWR. Will check NYC.

Indeed, I found an 80mph gust in the last hour at the bottom of the canyon. Also, CDOT has closed 36 between Lyons and Boulder due to wind, which is probably a very wise move given the orientation and the fact that it hugs the base of the foothills.

Porked... :(

It’s an unstable longwave pattern so these types don’t last very long. The closest analogs are mostly El Niño years. Early Jan 1952, late Dec 1957 and Dec 1965. Hopefully those roll over the same way because those years had some great patterns a few weeks later. But I kind of agree with @brooklynwx99, it’s not going to verify exactly as depicted for 10-14 days on end. It’s prob going to trend toward something a bit more stable. Hopefully that means on the snowier side for us and not the furnace side.

Pretty much gone here

There might be Swiss cheese left here.

GaWx has a nice run-to-run post about the 12z GEFS and how it started to lower heights over the NE in response to the NAO. I have had the NAO wreck my ideas more than once(good and bad) both when it appeared suddenly or didn't appear as forecast. It is a true wrecking ball. Until models sort it out, proceeding with caution is wise. I agree.

This is the first 20 day below normal streak for the new 1991-2020 climate normals era. xmACIS2 reset all the prior period departures to the 1991-2020 climate normals. So we don’t have the earlier departures based on 1981-2010, 1971-2000, 1961-1990, 1951-1980..etc.

Ravens WILL win out and they'll win the Division.

Boulder probably had some trees down today

Freezing fog tonight, thunderstorms in the forecast for tomorrow night.