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My guess of 104°-105° necessary at Newark or LGA for NYC to reach 100° is based on the 4-5°cooler differential back in June 2025 and 2021 between a warm spot like Newark. The early June 2026 heatwave had an even wider gap of NYC running 7°cooler than LGA and 6° cooler than Newark. So perhaps something more has changed in 2026 relative to even heatwaves as recent as 2025. We will find out in the coming days. Monthly Data for June 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 97 NJ HARRISON COOP 97 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 97 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 97 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 95 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 95 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 94 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 94 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 93 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 93 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 93 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 93 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 93 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 93 NY CENTERPORT COOP 93 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 93 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 93 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 92 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 92 NY SYOSSET COOP 92 NY ST. JAMES COOP 92 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 92 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 92 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 91

Low pressure over the N. Pacific favors east coast troughing though. Of course if the negative anomaly spills into the West coast like 82-83 and 97-98, that pushes everything east. +AO kind of dominated the pattern in 82-83 though.

Not today. Today was travel, tomorrow we go back to our roots and forecast for SNE.

I think what it comes down to is it's easy to keep the heat out of the eastern regions if it's weaker, but def. agree on the bolded.

This may surprise some people - Nino 4 is neutral in trend since mid-April

BD milddown on the euro Sat night.

That's not east based. I like the way warmest anomalies fade west.

Oh, geez....so sorry. My bad.....yea, I held out some hope initially, but quickly became clear it was not to be.

They just had a good snow event in the mountains of Montana!

Getting a bit more optimistic that line moving into ALB may at least deliver some much needed rain here.

If he buys it will be someone with control for next season, not just a rental for this year.

Storms kicking up a solid breeze. Feels Great.

FYI updated my entry

I recently posted about the issue here, as the trees will make it exceptionally difficult for Central Park to reach 100°. Last June, much of the region saw their hottest June temperatures on record, but not Central Park. In reality, based on the statistical relationships with JFK, LGA, and EWR, Central Park likely hit 100° on two days, including a June record 102°. I will run the numbers during the upcoming heatwave again. My guess is that those numbers will show 2 or perhaps even 3 100° days when the upcoming heatwave concludes. JFK's and LGA's average high temperature from 1996-2025 and 1991-2020 are well above their 1961-1990 average highs. In contrast, both sets of the more recent figures are cooler than their 1961-1990 figures for Central Park. As long-term climate figures are homogenized, the trees are a non-issue for 30-year and longer-term figures. Meanwhile, because daily data is not homogenized, daily records have been sacrificed. Even as this is the case, the news media still cites Central Park's figures as New York City's official data. In fact, during summer, Central Park's highs have become more a testament of the cooling power of trees than the City's actual readings.

We do have a decreasing sun angle; has that been considered in the forecast?

Definitely an odd mesoscale setup with the old modified arctic airmass sitting off the coast and mixing down the drier air on the eastern shore whole the mountains get obscene moisture

Then, it's going to be a very, very rare event. EWR has only hit 107+ once (108 on 7/22/2011).

There's gotta be some kind of pooling in the mountains. Even the Poolesville sensor is showing a trend towards higher surface dews and HI.

Thew MD Mesonet station in Frostburg is hovering around a dewpoint of 75-76 degrees with a station pressure of 939.8mb. That's 21 g/kg Mixing ratio which is CRAZY.

I think the Arctic cold this warm season will serve as a catalyst to keep the PDO more negative in comparison to ENSO this year. It's a pattern. Still have July-Sept to go though, so it could change, but since the Solar Max it's been a pretty sustained Summer +AO pattern.

Checked lake temps around Two Harbors today. A whopping 39F/4C. Chilly out there still.

We can see the evolution of top end heatwaves at Central Park as the tree canopy has continued to expand and cover the site. Prior to the mid 1990s when the new ASOS was established, Central Park was more in line with places like Newark and LGA during heatwaves reaching 103° and higher. There were times like July 1936 and 1977 when it was the warmest station around NYC Metro. So a station such as Newark would probably need to reach 104°-105° for NYC to have a shot at 100° with how dense the tree cover had become during the 2020s. NYC has gone a record breaking 5094 days not reaching 100° since July 2012. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2026-06-29 1 5094 2012-07-19 through 2026-06-29 2 4609 1881-11-11 through 1894-06-24 3 4022 1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17 4 4015 1980-07-22 through 1991-07-19 5 3261 1957-07-23 through 1966-06-26 6 3252 2001-08-10 through 2010-07-05 7 2904 1918-08-08 through 1926-07-20 8 2844 1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02 9 2219 1911-07-04 through 1917-07-30 10 1475 1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25 Data for June 1, 2025 through June 30, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 103 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 103 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 101 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 101 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 101 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 100 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 100 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 99 Data for June 1, 2021 through June 30, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 98 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 98 Data for July 1, 2011 through July 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 Data for July 1, 2010 through July 31, 2010 Newark Thermometer Malfunctioned missing highest temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NJ HARRISON COOP 106 CT DANBURY COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 104 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 Data for August 1, 2001 through August 31, 2001 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 105 NY MINEOLA COOP 105 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 104 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NJ HARRISON COOP 104 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 Data for July 1, 1993 through July 31, 1993 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ WAYNE COOP 104 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 103 CT DANBURY COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 Monthly Data for July 1980 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 102 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 NJ LODI COOP 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 101 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 101 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 101 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 101 NY SCARSDALE COOP 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NY WEST POINT COOP 100 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 100 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 Data for July 1, 1977 through July 31, 1977 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 102 Data for July 1, 1966 through July 31, 1966 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 107 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 105 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 104 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 104 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 104 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NY MINEOLA COOP 103 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 103 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 103 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 Monthly Data for July 1955 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ ELIZABETH COOP 103 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 102 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 102 NJ PATERSON COOP 102 NY WEST POINT COOP 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 101 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 101 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 101 NY HEMPSTEAD MITCHELL FIELD AFB WBAN 101 CT WATERBURY CITY HALL COOP 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100 Data for July 1, 1954 through July 31, 1954 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 103 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 102 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 102 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 102 NJ PATERSON COOP 102 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 102 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 101 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 101 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 101 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100 Data for September 1, 1953 through September 30, 1953 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ PATERSON COOP 106 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 105 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 105 NY WEST POINT COOP 105 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 104 NY SUFFERN 2 E COOP 104 NY NORTHPORT COOP 103 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 103 NY CARMEL COOP 103 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 103 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 103 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 103 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 103 CT NORWALK COOP 102 NY SCARSDALE COOP 102 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 102 NY WALDEN 2 NE COOP 102 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 102 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 Data for July 1, 1949 through July 31, 1949 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ PATERSON COOP 105 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 104 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 NJ RUTHERFORD COOP 102 CT NORWALK COOP 102 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 102 Data for August 1, 1948 through August 31, 1948 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT NORWALK COOP 104 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 104 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 104 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 NJ RUTHERFORD COOP 103 NJ PATERSON COOP 103 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP 103 Data for July 1, 1936 through July 31, 1936 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 106 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 105 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 105 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 105 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 105 NJ PATERSON COOP 105 NY SCARSDALE COOP 105 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 105 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 105 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104 NY FLUSHING COOP 104 NY WEST POINT COOP 104

I also had a 7" and 11" storm last Winter. If it wasn't 14 degrees and sleet, the Jan storm could have been 20"+. Sometimes exact snowfall numbers are taken too literally regarding possibility and potential

Topped out at 90, down to 86 now.