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  2. frontranger8
    Somewhere above 6000' is gonna get buried. Doubt I get more than an inch or two here in the city, but at least it looks like a much needed soaker.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would be good news IMHO...don't get me wrong, I'm know it will be warmer than average, but like 1982-1983, that scenario would likely entail some bonafide period(s) of winter.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I figured there were some southern sliders in there because December and March had very little snowfall up here, despite not being prohibitively warm at all.
  5. snowman19
    Like 1982-83 and 1997-98, I expect this one to be east-based/EP too. I think we end up exceeding the 1982-83 RONI of +2.5C. And I do believe the traditional ONI ends up near +3.0C. Everything is screaming that this is going to be a top 3 super El Niño. As far as snowfall, that’s always the wildcard, especially with super Ninos where we saw the 1983 and 2016 monsters up the coast….
  6. Typhoon Tip
    see...I think it's really just whether the sun is shining for a lot of return engagement in this social media. I've come to find over the years there's a coherent increase in the complaint rate based on whether that is the case. Less about temperature and more about sun. Cloudy and dry.... 'top ranked shit day' this and that. All complaints more than just seem to settle off if the sun blasts through south facing windows I have a stretch of cedar fencing coming in tomorrow ...I had to go out and prep the property line; pretty nasty job toiling in contaminated dirt and old human detritus. This is kitty corner to an urban setting so it's not like rooting around in nature's regolith and bucolic Earth. Pretty sure I was turnin dirt and exhuming plastic fragments from 1972 back there. Gross. But I can say...dry and cloudy at 52 F? It was a helluva bargain over having to do that toily task if were 80 F and humid. ho man. it's all relative I guess
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    Also, a late widespread freeze/snow event in the Eastern US, as far south as North Carolina on April 19-22:
  8. GaWx
    There was a historic very heavy snowstorm in the SE US on 3/24/1983. ATL got 7.9” of very wet snow, their heaviest snowstorm since Jan of 1940. That even gave Savannah a trace of sleet! ATL also had its snowiest winter (10.3”) since 1939-40 (another El Niño by the way).
  9. Maestrobjwa
    I have a Mid-Atl bias--ninas are no good here, so yeah, lol
  10. smokeybandit
    Euro is now generally on board, too, though its snow maps look kind of goofy around the Palmer Divide
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect to do a pretty deep-dive on the RONI/ONI relationship in my outlook this year because I feel that is going to be even more crucial than modoki index to be perfectly honest. I don't care if the SST pattern looks modokiish if the west Pacific is a hot tub and we can't pop an appreciable Aleutian low.
  12. Damage In Tolland
    Broke into some solid sun now. What a difference
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see what happens. I think 1982-1983 is a best case scenario assuming El Niño gets as powerful as some are suggesting. Looking back at the local climo data....winter was even better than I thought. Three storms over a foot in my area. December/January/March were slightly above normal temps and February slightly below normal. Snow pack peaked at 26" on February 11th....bit more than last year.
  14. Damage In Tolland
    Cod fishy
  15. Today
  16. GaWx
    But this CFS run is still showing a RONI-ONI gap of 0.5C (+2.5 vs +3.0). That narrowing is <0.1 vs the JFM gap of 0.56.
  17. dendrite
    ineeddonuts
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not necessarily.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like that we seem to be closing the gap between RONI and ONI....I bet we see more of an Aleutian low/SE ridge response if that is the case. 82-83 had decent NE snowfall even though it was warm in the mean.
  20. 495weatherguy
    We can only hope. The promise of better weather this spring is reminiscent of the promise of a snow storm only 5 days away that never materializes.
  21. nycwinter
    this may have been the last winter day in the city until this fall..
  22. metagraphica
    Was gonna go out and do more yard work today. Too cold and biting with the wind, so I guess it's painting inside instead.
  23. GaWx
    Officially I see only 0.05” at RDU for May 1-2: https://kamala.cod.edu/nc/latest.cdus42.RDU.KRAH.html Also, I see only 0.63” at FAY vs 0.91” on the map: https://kamala.cod.edu/nc/latest.cdus42.FAY.KRAH.html It’s as if they put in the wrong map. Maybe that was a forecast map?? But it has GSO right with nothing. Here’s a link to the last 7 days rainfall, which shows 0.44” at RDU, 0.77” at FAY, and 0.16” at GSO: https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KRAH/2605031100.sxus52.html
  24. winterwx21
    Only 54 degrees here with the gusty winds. Nasty for early May. Looking forward to mid 70s tomorrow.
  25. ChescoWx
    Below is from Mount Holly - Is there one from State College? Thanks!
  26. snowman19
    Despite the wishcasting by a select few weenies on twitter trying their best to wishcast a super El Niño away by saying there is no atmospheric coupling, the actual facts and reality tell a completely different story….there is actually strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) and it is projected to stay that way:
  27. ChescoWx
    Final seasonal NWS reported snowfall maps
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