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Despite the 16th being useless, there definitely seems to be a pretty active look going forward. We may play with fire, but lots of chances and lots of cold lurking north next week and beyond.

devastating step backs from the 18z runs......onto 00z---it might be time to call it by 12z tomorrow. The low pressure in the south is just so weak

of course AI is a step back. Cant ever take 2 steps forward

Can you input a miller A Gulf Bomb that buries the foothills and mountains in early March into the HAARP system? TIA

Hopefully not a GFS modeling gig!!! But seriously, have a fun time up there!!

Never was in on this 16th, Going forward to the 19th and beyond, Yes.

This is a lock because I rescheduled my appointment from the snowcrete storm to the 24th. Secret to a big storm is my scheduling.

What is great is we may be a week away from the snowiest period of the winter despite losing this one.

Sounds fun. Enjoy it. It isn't gonna snow in the lowlands here lol.

18z gfs actually got some light snow to our area. My gut tells me we’ll see the 18z euro Ai take a step back, but man if it gets even better it’ll be get your popcorn ready time. 18z gfs with a 2016-like MECS day 10-11. Winter isn’t over yet

35 at 7am, 53 at 4:30pm

Is this thread about Trump now?

-PNA isn't even "unfavorable" in a vacuum in Mid-February. Hell it could be argued that it's better. Perhaps the amplitude at which the -PNA is occuring is unfavorable... but all the other factors Ji posted about should counteract that.

A -PNA can work if the other key indices are favorable: -AO/NAO and a ridge in the WPO and /or the EPO space.

Our next storm to track.....WB 12Z GFS Day 11

Yep. I made a post in the other thread about the teleconnections going forward earlier today. Only the -PNA is unfavorable. The NH panel shows it better.. the -WPO is key on the Pac side.

Since it's mid-Feb, -PNA is fine! That should also lessen our worries about suppression!

Keep clicking your heals Dorothy.

I posted a response in the main medium range thread, but even though this is an ops out there in time...this kind of threat has shown up in ops runs (not just the GFS) and even ensembles(?) in that time period, several times lately. So I don't think it's just fantasy land bullshit. Not saying for sure we'll get something, but it catches one's attention.

Me too.

See Ji's post in the CAPE thread. It's a decent read

Hello again my friend: I suggest that the NWS idea of limited CAD was "wrong' : This would create support for the AI solution. The EURO AI deterministic is fine. But the EURO AIFS ensemble is not ready for Primetime. Maybe next winter, but not this year.

I know we can all laugh at an ops model at range...but a pretty good event has shown up in the ops (not just the GFS) several times now in that time frame. Not guaranteed obviously, but I don't think it's just fantasy either.

there is a lot here lol. NAO/big 50-50/-PNA/-WPO....alot of things fighting each other but the SE ridge is flat. Id be more worried about a southern slider here than the usual Feb nina cutter

Other than me, he is keeping this thread alive lol.