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I'm not arguing with your interpretation of what guidance shows now, rather I'm arguing that it's still adjusting not there yet. Wouldn't be the first time.

What was the total I sent you prior to the 19” big un? I thick was 26 right? So 45”

yeah, it was def a north/south gradient. Actually a prettty historic event way north with amounts over 18" in far northern MA. It was the 6-7th btw. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-6-7-2024

Anybody get the feeling we’re going to get a pasting before winter is over? We seem to be headed for a thaw but if we can get some cold air back on this side of the globe at the end of Feb, I think we might. Been a long time since we’ve had a 5:1.

I am ready to move on to severe season being nothing will make up for the screw job on 1/31. Once you get past Valentine's Day it gets a lot harder to get anything worthwhile in most years.

Some of us might get pity snow tonight. It may even coat the ground!

Vortex stretching is the term but Im still not seeing a split take hold even with the Euro to 240. It took roughly 30 days to translate to the surface in 2018 (split occurred around the first few days of February) leading to the snowfall events around presidents day and into March. Much different outlook this go around.

Yep, that's one degree lower than my forecast which makes total sense.

We take scraps... WINDEX events can be fun for a bit. Not as good as a big, long duration event of course. Could cover up the dog poop for a bit

One of two decent events that winter in what was otherwise a D winter. January 7th-8th 2024 event was 9.6 inches in Highland Mills. Parts of NW jersey, Places in Orange County northwest of me, and Dutchess county were in the 12-14 range from that event.

do you have a season to date snowfall

As we get nearer, the long-range appears to be adjusting a little colder in the modeling, as it has most of the winter. The AI models seem to be leading the way. We'll see where we are in about a week... maybe we can stay on the cold side of the boundary. Total wild card with the PNA ridge breaking down. Historically that would signal springlike weather but the tenor of this winter with the neg NAO and Atlantic pattern could mitigate that. Fingers crossed.

You're right, I do. But at 58 years old, and no skills other than landscaping and truck driving, I'm not sure anyone would hire me.

I don't live and die with every model run...especially not the GFS. I check in once or twice a day usually after 12z in quiet periods like this. 11-14th period looks even more interesting today than it did yesterday imo. People also need to stop looking at the shitty GFS... Euro flexes the SE ridge in the day 10 like the GFS but we've seen that be overdone all year long. Euro AI at 6z was close to a decent miller b on the 10-11th followed by 2 more threats after that. Mid month looks like the precip opens up, whether or not we have the cold in place will be TBD, but it will be lurking close by. I don't think the pattern in that timeframe screams all snow, but it definitely looks wintry imo. I also would not sleep on Friday night/sat morning, would not be surprised if someone gets a quick inch or two at all.

35.6. Felt balmy outside. At least we have cloud cover to protect the pack a bit today.

Some models showing a little light ZR as well. The pavement will still be holding some of the cold we've had especially in the shade so roads could certainly be slick

17 years ago (February 3-4, 2009):

I am ready for severe season since we couldn't get the job done in a near perfect setup this winter IMBY. We aren't going to make up for that this year so might as well move on.

Once again a broken clock is more often right than HRRR

Low of 8.4 up to 27.7 now

40° today? I think so

Pretty close to a full split.....I would wait to see what actually verified because I still anticipate a full split, more akin to 2018 and 2023.

All this to say I do want to go out with a bang for the season but my hopes are slowly fading like the winter season.

Yea, we'll see...I certainly don't expect a perfect forecast from 3 months lead.

I am looking forward to my trip up at the end of February and hoping the snowy weather holds up. Of course we just had that epic storm where I was and I was in the screw zone dry slot (we only got 4 inches). I did chase to where some of the big amounts occurred though because I wasn't going to sit through that nonsense. The amazing thing for NC is it was in the teens for this storm with 20:1 ratios and better in some cases. Here is a pic from that chase in the FGEN band. See you all soon!