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thanks I just finished remapping and updating Boxing Day 2010 storm if anyones interested. There is also a new Lower Northeast map with all the climate sites on it as well as a bunch of extra images and maps related to the storm https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-26-27-2010

78 now for the last 7 straight minutes so that'll likely be the high, shattered the record by 6F lol

Snow chances this far south have, of course, been done. We got the 3/4” on 1/31, which is quite snowy for way down here and was very enjoyable! I’m just looking forward to the clean chilly Canadian air, which is always welcomed. Will we get any more freezes or frosts though? Not from the first real short chill as that will get us to ~45. The second, however, should get us a couple of 30s.

77 at BDL

Poor Newport and Bourne today

82 in Fallston. Feels fantastic. gonna be a lovely temperature evening too

I’ve gone 28.9 to 76.6 (so far)

Just went for a walk in the woods in a conservation area. Down in Norwell beautiful spot. Still packed with snow so it felt funny with the warmth wafting on the nape and walking on many inches of snow in some areas.

82 over here at Coppin State. Absolutely wonderful outside.

+42.9°F Diurnal swing in temps today.

82F!

Wow... LWX went all out with a long, detailed, and excellent afternoon discussion for tomorrow KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Severe Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. - 2) Well above normal temperatures through Wednesday afternoon. - 3) A series of cold fronts crossing the area into early next week will lead to multiple temperature swings. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Tomorrow`s forecast is an extremely challenging one. At this point, there`s a wide range of potential solutions on the table, with very low confidence in which solution will ultimately verify. Forecast details follow below... A potent northern stream trough will continue to amplify as it tracks eastward from the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes during the day tomorrow. A corresponding surface low will deepen as it tracks northeastward from Lower Michigan across the Lower Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley. The low-level mass response to the deepening cyclone will lead to strengthening low-mid level winds, as a 700 mb jet of 50-70 knots develops over the Ohio Valley tomorrow morning, and then spreads northeastward over our forecast area by peak heating tomorrow afternoon. Southerly flow at low- levels will draw deeper moisture (low 60s dewpoints) northward into the area, which when combined with daytime heating (surface temps climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s) will lead to surface- based destabilization (MLCAPE values around 500-1500 J/kg). Assuming that storms occur, the environment in place with MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear values of around 50 knots (with nearly all of it below 700 mb) will be very favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms. However, many questions remain with respect to the coverage of storms, the storm mode, hodograph shape, and resultant storm impacts locally. 00z/12z CAM guidance is in good agreement that there will be plenty of ongoing convection tonight upstream in the Ohio Valley. Some of this activity will likely impact the West Virginia Panhandle, western Maryland, and potentially north-central Maryland tomorrow morning. Much of this activity will likely be elevated in nature, but some heavier downpours, lightning, and maybe even a little small hail may be possible during the morning hours as this activity moves through. Further south and east, conditions will likely remain dry through the morning, with daytime heating occurring through a broken cloud deck. Forecast uncertainty increases moving into the afternoon hours, with various sources of model guidance advertising a wide array of potential solutions. On one extreme lies the 3km NAM, which fails to produce any additional storms after the elevated activity moves through during the morning. Inspection of 3km NAM forecast soundings shows strong capping, which in turn inhibits the development of new storms. A tendency toward under-mixing and overcapping is a well known forecast bias of the 3km NAM. In this type of scenario, there would be no severe weather threat across the bulk of the forecast area tomorrow. A potential exception would be with any remnant squall line moving into the Alleghenies from the Ohio Valley tomorrow evening. On the other end of the spectrum lies the HRRR, which produces numerous additional storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Most of these storms actually form upstream in the Ohio Valley during the morning and persist into the forecast area during the mid afternoon to evening hours. Inspection of HRRR forecast soundings shows much deeper mixing, which is unsurprising, since overmixing/undercapping is a known bias of the HRRR. In terms of storm mode, the HRRR solution shows both supercells and smaller bowing segments. Other sources of guidance lie somewhere between these scenarios. The Hi-Res Canadian falls into the 3km NAM camp, keeping things capped and producing no additional storms locally. The FV3 is the next lowest in terms of storm coverage, only producing a few isolated cells, primarily across northern Maryland and northern portions of the West Virginia Panhandle. The RRFS also keeps activity predominantly confined to northern WV/MD, but more in the form of an organized squall line. The WRF-ARW develops a much larger QLCS/squall line with embedded bowing segments out of pre-exisiting convection that emanates out of southern WV. In that scenario, the QLCS could would impact most of the forecast area. The WRF-NSSL is much different that any of the above solutions, tracking a strong, elevated QLCS across northern MD during the morning hours, which lays out an east-west oriented outflow boundary. Then in the afternoon, it has a string of intense, isolated supercells developing along the differential heating boundary produced by the outflow, which then track eastward across northern Maryland. Beyond the differences in convective evolution/mode, there are also significant hodograph shape differences between the models. More overmixed models like the HRRR show close to straight hodographs, while undermixed models like the 3km NAM show much more hodograph curvature. The WRF-NSSL shows the greatest hodograph curvature of all, as a result of the remnant outflow boundary. The uncertainty with respect to convective mode and hodograph curvature cascades into uncertainty with regard to the potential hazards as well. The environment in place will make damaging winds possible with any storms that form. However, that threat would likely be maximized in scenarios that produce a more linear convective mode, with a QLCS or smaller bowing segments. A more cellular mode would likely lead to supercells, a greater threat for both severe hail and tornadoes, and lesser areal coverage of damaging winds compared to a linear mode. At the moment SPC has most of the area outlooked in a Slight Risk, driven by damaging wind potential. They also have a 5 percent hail contour, and 2/5 percent tornado contours, along with a CIG 1 hatching (suggesting that a reasonable max tornado intensity of EF-2, if a tornado were to occur). The CIG1 hatching hints at the higher end potential of the severe threat tomorrow. There is no CIG 1 hatching for wind tomorrow, but hurricane force gusts (74+ mph) are needed to justify wind hatching. It wouldn`t be a shock to see some 60-70 mph gusts in any bowing segments, if storms do occur. With the high level of forecast uncertainty, following observations will be critical over the next 24 hours. The level of mid-level capping, along with how upstream convection over the Ohio Valley evolves will be critical factors in determining what ultimately occurs here tomorrow. A brief summary of the main takeaways follows below: -Forecast uncertainty is very high tomorrow. Plausible scenarios range from no severe thunderstorms at all, to a very impactful severe thunderstorm event. -Confidence in elevated storms impacting the WV Panhandle/western MD tomorrow morning is high, but those storms likely won`t pose much of a severe threat. -Any storms that do form tomorrow afternoon will likely turn severe, posing at least a threat for damaging winds, and potentially large hail and tornadoes too (if the storm mode is supercellular). -The timing of the most intense storms is expected to be in the afternoon and evening hours, with the strongest storms (if they occur at all) expected to move through the I-95 corridor between roughly 3 and 8 PM. -A squall line will likely approach from the Ohio Valley and track toward the Alleghenies tomorrow evening, but will likely be weakening as it does so. Any severe threat with this line will likely stay confined to along/west of the Allegheny Front.

Yep-my kids are almost 17 now-they had incredible winters up til age 10-then they wondered what happened (until this year)

Enjoy…it’s all a memory in a couple days. That’s what sucks.

81 in the city.

That’s what I said to my family. Wild. The thing I hate about the end of winter is you never know when you’ll get a good winter again these days. My son is 7 and this was the first good winter of his life. Every summer lately you know will be hot and stay for a long time.

Was that when climate change first started kicking in?

well... not to troll this any more than it is trolling itself ...zomb but, this is a heat burst guys. Busting climo by almost 30 on the high ?! It's also akin to another ( yet ...) in the growing #'s of this sort of thing that have been taking place since the 2000's. Feb-Apr is low DP high kinetic air risk now more than ever, as these occurrence prove so in the "hot" numbers and +frequency.

Thanks. It's like an updated version of the old Earl Barker site.

These are days that fascinate me as an all-weather enthusiast - your basic 33 degree disparity between the coast and 10 short miles inland this afternoon: (Rehoboth vs. Georgetown DE)

72.1F. Mid winter last wk to almost full meltout. Nuts

I don't blame him, though...I would have taken the under, too.

That's right....we seem to be running a bit behind my 2018 analog....February SSW was late and so isn't the record heat from February.

81F Quite the temperature gradient at the coast.

Yeah, I saw that too, but am kinda skeptical. I'm still thinking the MCS will be the main show here. And yes, keep the stones well north.