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You’ve been NAM’d!

What would make it better than a decent signal?

We Nam

LOL at the NAM...way zoinked with QPF

One factor in the citys favor here is it's cold before the storm and below freezing throughout the whole storm. I don't think CPK is getting 8 but its not a particularly bad setup for accumulation in the boroughs, the real question is rates and if and when it flips to sleet.

HRRR seems to suggest the period of steadiest/heaviest precip in the Sus Valley occurs from approx 7-10pm, with it being more scattered and in brief waves before then. We can debate QPF and it probably ending up a bit less than it otherwise looked like a couple days ago. But to the point others are making in here, it really doesn’t take much in a freezing rain/sleet scenario to make roads icy. This isn’t a setup where the cold eventually gets routed during the storm in eastern PA, as surface/low level CAD is anchored in place and the air mass supplying it is quite cold. Ice accrual happens more readily at 29-30ºF than it would nearer to freezing.. and that should be where most folks are later on during that few hour period where the HRRR is suggesting best precip.

Back on topic.. Anyone see the 18z NAM? Asking for a friend heavy heavy snow

Sleet and freezing rain here. Temp 27 dp 20

That wasn't the original question you asked - you asked why do we care what BOX says/does. Others have moved the goal posts to them being "official" forecast. I didn't make such a claim in my post. By the way, ask your home insurance company who "officially" issues tropical storm and hurricane forecasts that affect your deductable if you need to make a claim... it ain't anyone on this forum or Jim Cantore...

The dying storm is gonna be our issue. Delivery update: on the way next (15 mins) and the driver said they’re cancelling all after mine

No qualms there. I read their discos everyday . Sometimes they’re spot on and sometimes they’re spot awful. Much of that depends on which met is “ on the desk” we know the names and know who is and who isn’t . They are factored in , just like any other met outlets public or private that people like to follow .

Thinking it’s going to be similar to Tuesday here. Coating of whatever washed away by sunrise tomorrow. I don’t think we see a flake, straight to IP I bet.

Im expecting the high end totals up here in the bronx. 8+ inches of high ratio fluff. The radar is looking better to our west also. The actual trajectory of the heaviest precip is diving south and east right in to nyc later or so it seems.

Just messing with you guys to ease the tension of who gets what. Hopefully we get an over performer that makes everyone happy.

Well, it looks like we are skipping the snow part...thump cancel.

Jersey has more than enough funding from its residents.

Just because you don't fall in those categories don't mean there aren't others out there that do. The general public consume weather forecasts in many different ways than we do here on this forum. I haven't found their forecasts overly bullish recently, but I would defer to you since you do this for a living and probably compare notes with what BOX is posting...

NWS Mount Holly is rightfully bearish imo in Central and northern New Jersey. It's the time for nowcasting, so we'll be watching that sleet line move in real time, but I'm surprised NWS New York has 8" for Central Park out of this. Just not a typical situation

The traffic on 95 is a standstill in both direction here. Hopefully everyone gets home before the snow starts.

One implicating of losing the -EPO is the relaxation in the flow that takes place down stream over the continent. There's still plenty of cold air around... don't worry. But the upshot is that the gradient slacks off, and that allows the kinematics to conserve at the S/W scale. Right away, the Euro operational run takes advantage of that - whether it is correct or not ( likely not as is - ), the principle of a better pattern for winter enthusiasts immediately materializes there.

Light sleet just started here in EN temp 27.1 DP 9.5

That's true.. however their snow forecasts are almost always far more bullish than the people doing it for "ratings, page views, clicks, or advertising revenue." Not sure how to square that circle.

My brother loves Alaska more than any other. He just went to the Alps, Turkey, Italy. He’s been all over Europe.