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@ravensrule isnt this your territory?

Its usually there all season but most notably in Feb. That also doesn't necessarily mean 100% the SER will pump the entire month either. Could it? Sure. But given the Dec up top pattern, I think there will be more of a resistance from the NAO and PV. Those early season looks tend to show up throughout the season.

Appreciate the info. You are correct in that 2006-07 was decent when I was in Lancaster/Philly. 2014-15 was okay down here in Baltimore. 1997-98 and 2018-2019 were hot garbage, IMO.

The 12z EPS & 12z Canadian ensemble in the day 10 to 15 period look very workable to me. I have no interest in freezing the orange groves while we have below zero temps. Last year a frigid 2 weeks in late January gave us “congrats Carolinas” & “congrats Gulf coast” when they snowed while we froze. I think many of us would welcome a pattern of just cold enough with chances to score snow. Bring on some moisture laden storms & let the chips fall during prime snow climo season.

The 12z EPS & 12z Canadian ensemble in the day 10 to 15 period look very workable to me. I have no interest in freezing the orange groves while we have below zero temps. Last year a frigid 2 weeks in late January gave us “congrats Carolinas” & “congrats Gulf coast” when they snowed while we froze. I think many of us would welcome a pattern of just cold enough with chances to score snow. Bring on some moisture laden storms & let the chips fall during prime snow climo season.

Today's weeklies are a touch better temp wise than yesterday. Maybe the bleeding has stopped?

Not to mention ( but will anyway ...), we've 'graduated' into a climate era where the so called 'torches,' I'd argue even in the subjective sense, make 50s a lot easier to do than they were 30 years ago under the same synoptic regimes. Tell ya what ... if folks have an problem with that, leave the word climate out of it and just say that for whatever reason which no one knows any idea why ..whenever it warms up in winter it makes it above 55 more often than it ever used to. Either way, if given any excuse to do so ... there's a fair probability that 40s will end up being underselling. So Kevin, you could see 55 ... but it would be overachieving on what forecasters think is possible. Because that's the other headache, over achieving is not ever modeled. Yet it keeps happening. I dunno ... I'd say you're playin with the kids college tuition if you're gamblin the temp down during the warm phase of all these changes.

I guess I was expecting to see a ton of 50’s and 60’s based on some of the posts in here . Sure it’s a little warmer than normal, but it’s not a torch (at least on the EPS).

Today is the 32nd consecutive day on which the PNA is < 0. Despite the EPS and GEFS currently showing only a brief turn to positive, the historic evidence since 1980 suggests that a regime change to an extended period of a predominantly positive PNA is likely once the current stretch of PNA- concludes. Until one is in the short-range of the teleconnection forecasts, the base case remains a regime shift in the PNA, not a temporary fluctuation to positive values. All 10 prior streaks of 30 or more consecutive days since 1980 ended with a regime change in the PNA.

Now see...ya can't help but think about 22-23 when that thing went on steroids the entire season (I think the NAO linked up with it). I was used to seeing that in February of a Nina but that thing surged basically the entire winter, smh Now this is a different setup, of course...but I had been under the impression that the ser was more of a February thing in ninas.

Yeah, as much as the concern has been that cold dumps to our West, it seems like the trend today has been to make any cold air in North America disappear

Feels like one of those rare winters were it just wants to snow when it can. No complaints from me about it, especially after the last 2 winters we had.

York Haven to Falmouth

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 2.7 3.3 0.5 -0.7 -0.8

More like a knuckler or eephus…

Reduction in soundings should impact all forecasts, but perhaps not equally given different data assimilation methods. Not sure how you’d “normalize” it so to speak, but I think comparing forecast accuracy between winter 24-25 and 25-26 would be a very interesting study.

Depends. 42 is a mini torch-8 degrees above normal but mid 40s+ during the coldest climo at bdl is a torch. This isn’t early December. Seasons in seasons…

I forgot to mention. Doge didn't effect the Eps. Lol

Flurries now..

The SER is part of the base state we are dealing with this winter. It is a function of the La Nina and fits Nina climo. The key is cashing in when there are windows when it gets squashed or acting as a flat ridge / gradient. It was a certainty the SER would pump at times this season. Eta: so with that said, step back from the ledge. Winter is not canceled, winter is not over. We've been frozen, give or take a couple days, since late November. Consider the relax in the pattern our annual January thaw. Seems like a pretty average winter thus far, no complaints.

I bet more qpf is modeled on tomorrows runs

But that’s not a torch . Few days of 40’s

We should be so lucky.

So how damaging do we think this mild up will be? It seems like the boundary might not get further north of the MA/NH border?