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Idk, all but a handful of Eps members has the slp in a decent location. In fact, just a few that are way ots skew the mean. We'll see.

Upgraded CMC is slightly warmer but it's an all snow event NW of I95

Technically this is an Archaumbault event with the NAO change. It argues for a stronger/farther N solution vs the Ai models. Euro Ai gives me the most pause for concern of course, but we’re still at range where we could maybe see some significant changes There’s also a world where the Ukie/cmc solutions are possible, similar 6z euro track but with the initial wave tracking farther N 00z Ukie was a MECS for interior to SNE 00z cmc parallel was like the Ukie but also got Philly in the game. Lots to parse. The pieces are there. We have 50/50, but the ULL helping reinforce the cold is a bowling ball and models are all over the place with it. Strong shortwave coming out of the pac, and finally x-factor to me is any northern stream piece that potentially tries to phase in last second. 6z eps comparison vs 00z, you can see that phase trying to happen with the energy over the lakes

A few more frames would suggest the 6z ICON won’t miss south if extrapolated

@WinterWolfThoughts? How does this fit the overall tenor of the season? Do we know?

Wow

Good now let me change my screen name dangit

The models were showing rain yesterday. I’d wait until they stabilize some before drawing conclusions rather than flip flopping with every run.

Not much to hate about that until someone chimes in with all of that is from one monster hit and 49 misses

Euro is a coating for you, will be interesting.. NAM/RGEM blend should get you plowable other models not so hot

Marginal setup

I don't care about being back i can't wait for tonight's thrilling installment of the Chuck and psu podcast

It looks like a Cape scraper to me. Cape Canaveral.

Eps. More to come after this too.

10% of members with a plowable snow wouldn't call that a lot

Looks like a few good hits, but I wouldn’t call that “lots”

Loving the 60s/70s showing up on GFS..

this weak ass snowpack has been kicking around for quite a while but looks to nearing the end of the road with consistent sun and above freezing temps this week

Regular EPS

And when they are they’re usually right

Incredible how seasonal trends can hold on, whether in reality or on modeling.

We’re so back

Yea and there was more to come. There is this little ULL over SE Canada that is giving the models fits. Every model run keeps placing it in different locations every run. There is also now the question of a late phase. It would be extremely impactful if models go that way. Euro Ai being so far SE is a pause for concern still, and the OP is an outlier until we see the EPS, but not out of the ballgame yet

This is due to inadequacy of relying on the standard teleconnections with patterns like this. It was a weaker version of January 1994 and 2004. Those patterns were colder and sustained for a month instead of 15-20 days like this one was. While it doesn’t have a formal name, the key driver of the cold was the 500mb block north of Alaska. That is a very cold teleconnection in the East. You can find other examples such as 12-26-17 to 1-8-18. This was the coldest 16 day period around NYC Metro since then. Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 16.8 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 16.9 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 17.1 2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08 0 4 17.2 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 5 17.5 2026-01-25 through 2026-02-09 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 20.8 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 20.8 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 20.9 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 19.7 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 19.7 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 20.1 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0