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I forget the name, but a Lancaster County one is closed for the season.

We leave for Alaska Thursday. I guess it’s time to start following that wild weather lol

Heard yesterday a local orchard very near me had significant damage from the frost and freeze a few weeks ago.

48 for the low and foggy. picked up .29” of rain yesterday.

Yeah…. Stein has become an annual thing. Absolutely destroyed my lawn last year. Downright murdered my new grass and I don’t think I mowed from like July yo September.

Low of 48 with .11” of rain. Happy Mother’s Day to all the momma bears out there!

I checked them . That one on Pond st had .31

Points taken, Chuck. Thank you. And further south down in the SE only 2015-6 averaged downright mild due to Dec. The others were pretty close to normal or even cold if you were to include 1957-8 and 1965-6.

Nope

384hr on the mean has a respectable ridge

Ok, I was just basing it on the SOI. I'm sure those reconstructed events aren't too far off though. Still a point though, that the opposite of Strong La Nina's is not matching Strong El Nino's.. relatively small number of samples. they are both anomalies of the same thing so should reverse each other. I think filter out the NAO and extreme-east based events and Strong Nino's aren't as warm in the East in the Winter as people think.

Indeed, pre-1948 were largely reconstructed but Webb’s table as well as JMA (which calculates them a bit differently) both also have 1877-8 and 1888-9 as super Ninos and many assume they really were without questioning them. His table has 1911-2 peaking only at +1.2 and 1914-5 only at +0.9, both way lower than 1877-8 and 1888-9. JMA has 1911-12 slightly stronger but still only at +1.3. It has 1914-5 at only +0.5. So, the odds are high that 1911-2 and even more-so that 1914-5 weren’t super Ninos.

^Yeah, we now have >+6c on TAO/Triton below Nino 1+2, which is the highest of the event so far This is as the 1st Kelvin wave is far east though.. I don't know that the mean doesn't happen further west. I'm thinking basin-wide like 15-16. (I guess technically it's the 2nd Kelvin wave as the first one happened mid-Winter.)

6z GEFS in the long range is also building a ridge. This has been on the model for the last 4-5 runs now, for the last week of May

Negative H5 dropping into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, progressing east, is our best Summer pattern for storms

A classic east-based event is unfolding as the Kelvin Wave begins to surface at the coast of South America along with the associated thermocline/sea level response ^ “Sea Level and Equatorial Waves 09-May. In the context of the precursor signals of El Niño, a Kelvin wave has begun to arrive at the coasts of Ecuador. Among its first effects are the rise in sea level (20 cm), deepening of the thermocline... “

Area stations here at the new Pit1 are less than .25. It was still a cold and miserable day--typical spring day on the coast. I really wish I were at a point when I could be worrying about the TOTAL DISASTER which is the lawn here.

I'm getting hyped. More fuel for storms. This cool, dry, windy pattern is turning us into the Colorado Plateau. We need more weather like what we're having today.

Yeah mid level deck is moving out…just gotta mix out the low level crud. 47.6°

Looking at stations S Wey area had .31-.42 We knew

Some showers and iso storms today. Otherwise nice day when this burns off.

We lose some aspect of the past climate with every baseline temperature jump. But we have to wait until after the event to see specifically what changes will occur. The first one in 1997-1998 put a 1995-1996 snowy benchmark season out of reach for us. The same for the 1993-1994 record cold with benchmark snows in Central to Eastern PA. It was also the beginning of the all or nothing snowfall pattern which lead to more seasons of 30”+ and 18” or lower. Leading to a significant decline in the 19” to 29” winters which were common place from the 1960s to early 1990s. So every snowy season featured it least one KU benchmark event. The absence of KU events has been a feature of the low snowfall winters. It took around 9 years after that event 1997-1998 event for the warmth to make it to the Arctic leading to the big thickness drop and record lower range we have been in. Then a smaller jump in 2010 shifted the summer temperatures to a warmer base that we have been in. Then the historic December 2015 +13 kicked off the era of significantly warmer winters. Places like DC to Philly haven’t seen close to the cold and benchmark snow of the 2009-2010 winter. Same for the Great Lakes not repeating the benchmark snow and very cold conditions of 2013-2014. Plus the Boston historic snows in 2014-2015. Then the rapid warming of the WPAC east of a Japan following this event eventually leading to the faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet and decline in 2020s snowfall for us compared to the record snowy 2010s. We did get a nice bounce back winter in 2025-2026 with the first benchmark KU since 2020-2021 and 2021-2022. Still uncertain how the winter storm tracks will respond following this event. The 2023-2024 jump is most recent with 2 of the warmest winters on record occurring for the CONUS in the last 3 years. Hard to say how long the severe drought pattern which developed across the U.S and Canada following this event will last. It will be interesting to see if this 2026-2027 event can shift the pattern to wetter at least temporarily or shift us back to drier again following the event. Very challenging to do multiyear precipitation forecasting. It took 18 years between 1998 to 2016 for that baseline jump to occur. Then only 8 years between 2016 and 2024. Now all the models are indicating the first time for a +2.1 or greater ONI El Niño only 3 years apart and baseline temperature jump. So for the entire planet we are moving into an unknown zone with such rapid warming occurring over shorter intervals of time.

Here comes the next big WWB and DWKW. It’s also going to spark off TC’s

KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze risk Monday night/Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies Almost a slam dunk for a widespread frost for more than half the CWA tomorrow night (N and W) - and a freeze in the nrn mtns. Dewpoints will be 25-30F - just low enough to allow the temps to be able to drop, but not too dry to keep frost away. Confidence in frost is near 100 pct, but for freeze is about 49 pct. Due to increasing confidence, frost advy and freeze warnings seem likely, but the consensus among the regional offices on this (midnight) shift was to allow at least one more forecast cycle for that to happen.

0z EPS is quite warm around May 17-18 then above average for the 2nd half of the month