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As wolves whimper before being frozen at -150 degrees and Dennis Quaid looks for his sons.

You're talking about timing. All models take this into central NJ at some point. Just don't agree on the timing. The track is pretty consistent within 50 miles, however.

I posted 3 different 12Z models 2 posts above to prove my point - now its your turn to prove yours

True this. Coming in along CNJ coast or a little south will maximize the tides, wind and rainfall totals over most of this sub forum. If it slides westward say along the south shore of the island than somewhat lesser impacts. Watch trends next 12-18 hours for better clarity. This depiction with that pressure would be worst case scenario from CNJ coast up into NYC, LI and the sound.

Rain looks more and more likely Sunday. I have tickets for Jason Isbell on the river and am having some doubts that show happens.

The AIFS did a nice job looping this back to the coast from over 220 hrs out last week.

you can see the wall of rain spinning just offshore, though..looks almost tropical. Tomorrow is definitely gonna be nasty out.

Great Data. I anecdotally recall 40s in September being much more common than it is now.

The WWS in Milton is delish! Thread related, the wind is picking up here. Still really nice out though.

Actually, the 12z suite (excluding EURO which hasn't run yet) are pretty consistent with the track. Every single model takes the storm into central nj within 36-48 hours.

Really? that's surprising. like I said, maybe First Sate Brewing...but Milton is always a fun place to visit. quirky little town. if you're in the mood for Mexican, can't recommend Tequila Real enough. fantastic food and right on Wagamons Pond. OK, this was genuinely funny, i chuckled. well done. Not a beer guy, but friends/colleagues that are tend to highly review Dewey Beer Co.

12Z models are all over the place with the exact tracks and timing and when and where the most intense part of the system is possibly going to make a left turn into the coast - many more questions than answers for any particular area of the region as of this afternoon. All that is certain is there is going to be flooding and high winds up and down the coast - rainfall amounts are the biggest question mark - along with the highest wind locations several miles inland especially.

RIP, he would have been all over this one. Can throw Messinger into that one, too.

I’m not a hype person, but looking at vis. sat, you can see the cold air eating away around SC/ NC

it is all cancelled

Respectfully disagree. This is a warm seclusion. There’s no latent heat release. Furthermore the storm dissipates as it becomes vertically stacked on Sunday night. It might have some tropical characteristics but it won’t behave like a tropical cyclone should.

No. This isn’t tropical or subtropical currently.

If not in real time it will happen in the post storm reanalysis

Lakehouse? Great restaurant

Zero mention by NHC, not even an yellow so I assume they disagree?

Pretty clear on the guidance that the evolution is mid lat cyclone to STC to tropical warm core/STC.

How many named naked swirls have we seen over the years? In the eyes of those who know better, should this count?

lol already got branches down in my neighborhood. Canceled a reservation for our 20th anniversary dinner in Bay Shore that was supposed to be at 8pm tomorrow because that area floods rather easily, forget in a storm like this. Lol it’s always friggin something ugh.