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rains for days at the end of next week on the 18z Euro AI

Brutal run if true

Just got 1.28 rain from this batch headed towards Harrisburg area. Complete with several bouts of thunder. It poured. 1.40 for the day.

CAUTION FOLKLORE—-> I know that you’re supposed to wait until after the first frost, but the persimmons have spoons and the one woolly worm I saw was black Don’t judge I gotta do what I gotta do when it’s the end of September and we’re still 20+ degrees above average every single freaking day

I think the warm Xmas puns a play off the warm December that is expected....I don't think anyone it honestly trying to forecast down to the day at 3 months out.

I don't think you are paying enough attention to antecedent conditions...of course the summer of 2015 was more redolent of El Niño....it came off of....an El Niño with a huge +PDO. You are also misunderstanding what I am saying when I compare to 2015...not just talking about the intensity of the GOA low, but also the degree of MC influence. There is probably a connection, but it's not 1:1. I doubt we see more MC influence than 2015.

Missing the good stuff. 0.01". Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

DC might be better at sports than we are at December snow.

Yea but 82/76 which is what I’m at now is really gross.

Indeed, the weighted avg of your graph, which looks like it is only ~+1.25 to 1.5, doesn’t at all jibe with the image below, which shows it ~+3.3:

Yeah IDK just thinking out loud one way I could see it go without too much thought. Actually, the -PDO October might be the best fit for that north Pacific and NA look advertised if we reverse this color scheme accordingly. I'm curious what happens that month as we're really getting into autumn at that point. Not much confidence one way or another.

Gfs has rain all week next week for the NYC area

I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen one around these parts.

Misery Mist, useless.

18z gfs folds. Wet times ahead

The talks of getting to 90F quickly faded today. .

The last week of month and then into Oct does not look cool.. at all

4.49" on the east side of Huntington since around 10 PM Tuesday evening, 5.11" for the month. I believe that average for FWA for Sept. is only around 3.1".

92 for the high.

Sunday is perfection?

Historically warm Nino 1+2 in Oct doesn't look like that. Winter, yes, not october based on the last 73 years. I'd say the H5 model you are posting is more opposite than similar in the n. pacific

Sitting at 6.07" of rain in Fort Wayne at my wx station, north of the city. Unreal for September! Miss the blue skies and zzzs we normally get this time of year.

Could today have been the last 80 or higher degree day for Central Park this year?

0.10” so far but mod rain Looks pretty cool after Friday with a lot of NE flow next week.