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I would say the tough part is the 2 feet shown on some model runs. With that said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to have many pull out 6-12

I know. Its just a bad night for the models.

why would 6Z be any different with old incomplete data ? Plus read my post about the storm not entering the west coast till 12Z Thursday - now the storm is probably in a sparse data region in the Pacific and not fully evaluated yet

Alll the shroves of Shrove Tuesday

Who else hear the thundah

Beggars can’t be choosers.

Horrible 0z suite. Onto 6z.

Enjoy the Sunday afternoon snow showers. Looks increasingly likely I’m going to Houston this weekend. Will wait tilll tomm afternoon to call time of death

homemade breakfast sausage and sausage gravy.

I won’t be dreaming of umbrellas tonight.

IMO - I don't think the energy (storm) that is going to track across the country in the next few days has been fully sampled yet and fed into the models along with the northern energy. The west coast storm is progged to reach the west coast by 12Z Thursday. IMO expect further changes in model solutions over the next few days

Can I sign for this right now?.

Euro is awful. Go to bed

Euro AI has been trending worse every run but it's the only hope we got.

If I knew the answer to that. No the models know better than we humans do. But I will say that historically it's gone both ways. And it's also possible they'll bring back and less magnificent storm of 1-3,2-4, 3-6" or so or that we'll remain in the outer snowbands with a lighter/wetter snowfall. We need the ridge out west to stay stronger and leave enough room for this system to get wrapped up the way some of the models earlier depicted it. On most of the 00Z runs the top of the ridge was flattened making for a more progressive flatter trough in the east. As long as the AI models have this thing IMO it's a legitimate threat. WX/PT

Pretty nice returns over you atm no? How's it hanging?

Just sitting back smilin while wasting the snowiest climo month.

Absolutely comical. Every single model except the euro had this storm in some form or another at 12z, and every single model that’s run so far at 0z has lost the storm. I wonder if that’s ever happened that quickly on 6 different models.

This explains the Canadian change from 12Z to 0Z

The two pieces of energy in the northern plains were weaker and flatter on the 0z runs long before they ran into that confluence, which looks like an effect of the weaker trough, not a cause.

This decade has really hurt everyone’s averages. It’s been lousy across the board, but even moreso for northern areas that aren’t Parr’s Ridge.

this explains what happened on the GFS surface map looking at 500mb Vort

Most also show another lead wave Saturday in the southern MA or SE which is a problem too

so you are saying the models will return to the big storm solution as we get closer ?