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Nice winter day! 22° after a low of 1° and about 3 inches of glacier, mostly snow with a little sleet and a crust of ice. Caught the Sundog in Granville MA.

Screenshot this morning, mostly sleet.

Cars cleared and the one in full shade had 2”

Some very tiny flurries floating around at home in little ferry.

Anybody remember the movie Krull and the Cyclopses who had traded one eye in exchange for being able to see the future, but were tricked in that the only future they could see was their own demise? That's what this place is like. Here it is, early December. Snow to our south, sub freezing temperatures across most of this board, mood flakes on the way, below normal temperatures forecast pretty far out, and some of us *still* aren't happy, because at some point, it's going to rain or be mild again someday. As for all the talk about "we're screwed, it's going to be cold but dry", I'm willing to bet that in every year of this board's existence, there was chatter like that two days into every single solitary late fall/winter cold snap which didn't immediately produce. Sometimes it turned out to be true, but sometimes it did not. For the non mets on here who like snow and cold, enjoy the moment for pete's sake. It's always eventually going to be warm again.

7-8 years ago, I wrote a short essay on potential effects of climate change on the Bureau of Parks and Public Lands' timber management. As part of it I looked at snowfall and temps for the northerly 2/3 of Maine where 90%+ of the BPL-managed acreage. I used CAR for the north, Rangeley for the mountains and Farmington for non-mountain inland areas. Temps have risen noticeably this century, particularly in deep cold - subzero mornings, important for freezing down winter roads. 21st century snowfall increased at all 3 sites, averaging 6% more. Duration of snow cover was lower (3-5%) at CAR and Farmington but up 5% at Rangeley - elevation helps, I guess. First subzero morning here - expected about -5 but reached -9, earliest in the season this cold since moving here in 1998. Maybe the wind quieted earlier than expected?

Cycling through all model guidance from 0z to 12z it's kind of funny to see what looks like a snow force field in effect for our area. Plenty of action but it's either north or south. Hope it changes soon.

Mesos juiced.

there it is ... the Yuletide mando pattern

21/6 out there right now. Few flurries flying around w/ snow cover. Impressive for December 5th

The 12z GEFS has temps twenty-five degrees below normal in WI at 195 w/ all of that headed SE. During that same hour, our forum area has departures of fifteen degrees BN. That is frigid for an ensemble at this range. The 12z GEPS is even colder over our forum area w/ temps 20 degrees BN over much of the area. The GEPS brings another cold shot around the 21st. The 12z EPS is rolling. It has the same cold shot, and is a bit "warmer." It is only 10-15 degrees BN. That is cold for a model w/ a bit of a warm bias in d10-15. Short story, even at this range, there is a growing likelihood of very cold air making it to our latitude by mid-month. Both the GEPS and AIFS ensemble(to some extent), show the second cold shot around the 20th. With so much snowpack immediately to our north, these cold air masses are on greased skids.

Yessir! Nice and toasty inside! Measured 3.6” for storm total.

Knockout roses DGAF…

The yucky rainy pattern continues here. Luckily during a short break in the light rains yesterday evening, I squeezed in a walk. Today so far has been different. The rains at times have been heavy, with my measurements suggesting ~0.75”. There’s been enough to be wary of hydroplaning if going too fast. This is the heaviest I’ve seen in several months. Thus, it’s the first minor test of my completed yard drainage projects as well as the city’s redug nearby street drainage ditch project. But it’s still not yet a complete tear as I need even heavier rains. Regardless, there will be more on and off rains through Sunday. My temps have been mainly in the mid to upper 50s after dipping to the rain cooled upper 40s last night. Temps are 12 warmer in Brunswick 75 miles to the S.

Clippers have been so rare, be nice to get one

@Scraff not sure Boutbon Stout is your thing or not, but snagged this last night. Probably the smoothest Ive had and I've had my share. For 14.5% went down like butter.

Confusing times for my roses.

Lol. Let’s do it.

Great little storm. Nice dendrites for most of it. Monday's system is a miss to the south, but might give some crumbs to the NC and SE VA crowd. Hopefully we get a decent clipper track or the like next week.

Yes, next season will likely be rough but that was probably always going to be the case. Question about Tony, are you implying that he is the guy suspected of recording the audio? Because I didn't really hear anything damning about him while listening to it. Pat mentioned about the defense falling apart after he got hurt and the AD guys were kind of razzing him about getting offers from other teams, specifically naming Miami, but I didn't hear much beyond that.

878 NOUS41 KLWX 051709 PNSLWX DCZ001-MDZ001-003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501>508-VAZ025>031- 036>040-050>057-501>508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-060509- Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1209 PM EST Fri Dec 05 2025 The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 3 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to cooperative and CoCoRaHS observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/baltimore ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL MEASURED (inches) DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ...District of Columbia... American University 1.1 1100 AM 12/05 Broadcast Media MARYLAND ...Baltimore County... Edgemere 0.2 1052 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Reisterstown 1 NE T 911 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Bentley Springs 1 E T 1130 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Calvert County... Prince Frederick 1 S 1.5 1000 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Chesapeake Beach 1.5 911 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Carroll County... Eldersburg 1 ESE 0.5 935 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Charles County... Waldorf 2 W 2.0 935 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Frederick County... Point of Rocks 1 NE 0.8 915 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Adamstown 1 ESE 0.6 1000 AM 12/05 NWS Employee New Market 2 NW 0.5 930 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Garrett County... Oakland 0.5 1039 AM 12/05 Dept of Highways Grantsville 5 W 0.5 1038 AM 12/05 Dept of Highways Grantsville 4 E 0.5 1040 AM 12/05 Dept of Highways ...Harford County... Bel Air 2 NE 0.5 1140 AM 12/05 Broadcast Media Chrome Hill 2 SE 0.3 1122 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Forest Hill 2 SW 0.1 930 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Howard County... Elkridge 1.4 1140 AM 12/05 NWS Employee Laurel 2 N 1.0 1200 PM 12/05 Trained Spotter Gaither 2 SE 0.6 1200 PM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Montgomery County... Gaithersburg 1.5 935 AM 12/05 Emergency Mngr Norbeck 1 ESE 1.4 945 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Washington Grove 1 N 1.3 1000 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Damascus 3 SSW 1.2 1003 AM 12/05 Co-Op Observer Gaithersburg 1 SW 1.2 1015 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Damascus 1 S 1.1 924 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Bradley Farms 1 SSW 1.0 1044 AM 12/05 NWS Employee ...St. Marys County... California 2 W 2.2 1125 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter California 3 W 1.3 1103 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter VIRGINIA ...Albemarle County... Crozet 1 W 4.2 930 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Earlysville 3 NW 3.0 1028 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Arlington County... Rosslyn W 1.7 1100 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Baileys Crossroads 1 1.6 1110 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Barcroft 1 WNW 1.4 946 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Reagan National Apt 1.1 1000 AM 12/05 Official NWS Obs ...Augusta County... Staunton Arpt 3 WSW 3.5 925 AM 12/05 Broadcast Media Summerdean 3 SE 3.5 1041 AM 12/05 Broadcast Media Greenwood 3 NNW 3.0 1145 AM 12/05 Public Afton 1 WNW 3.0 1150 AM 12/05 Public ...City of Alexandria... Alexandria 1 W 0.8 945 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...City of Fredericksburg... Dunavant 1 S 3.0 1000 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Fredericksburg 2 E 1.8 1150 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Clarke County... Berryville 1 NNW 1.0 945 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Culpeper County... Culpeper 1 W 1.4 1015 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Fairfax County... Herndon 1 NNE 1.0 1020 AM 12/05 NWS Employee ...Frederick County... Stephens City 2 E 1.5 1030 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Highland County... Hightown 5 NW 3.0 951 AM 12/05 Public Hightown 3 NW 3.0 953 AM 12/05 Public Monterey 3.0 1009 AM 12/05 Dept of Highways ...Loudoun County... Hughesville 2 W 1.6 918 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Ashburn N 1.5 1000 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Arcola 1 NNE 1.3 1040 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Arcola 3 S 1.2 1050 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Dulles International 1.1 1012 AM 12/05 Official NWS Obs ...Madison County... Big Meadows 2.5 1141 AM 12/05 Public ...Nelson County... Wintergreen 5.0 1015 AM 12/05 Law Enforcement Wintergreen 2 WSW 5.0 1018 AM 12/05 Law Enforcement Shipman 1 WNW 4.0 1000 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Rockfish 2 WNW 3.8 1015 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Page County... Stanley 2 WSW 2.0 1000 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Prince William County... Manassas 3 SSE 1.5 1015 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Woolsey 1 SW 1.2 930 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter ...Rockingham County... Clover Hill 3 WSW 3.0 932 AM 12/05 Broadcast Media Broadway 3.0 1042 AM 12/05 Broadcast Media Cherry Grove 3.0 948 AM 12/05 Dept of Highways Swift Run 2.0 1142 AM 12/05 Public Massanutten 1 SE 2.0 1100 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Elkton 1.9 1132 AM 12/05 Public ...Shenandoah County... Basye 2.0 922 AM 12/05 Broadcast Media ...Stafford County... Fredericksburg 4 NW 1.8 1123 AM 12/05 Public ...Warren County... Front Royal 1.5 1143 AM 12/05 Public Linden 3 W 1.3 1037 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter WEST VIRGINIA ...Grant County... Petersburg 1.0 1012 AM 12/05 Dept of Highways ...Hardy County... Bean Settlement 2.0 1054 AM 12/05 Dept of Highways Baker 2.0 1052 AM 12/05 Dept of Highways Wardensville 1.5 1055 AM 12/05 Dept of Highways Moorefield 1.5 1051 AM 12/05 Dept of Highways ...Pendleton County... Circleville 3.5 1034 AM 12/05 Trained Spotter Seneca Rocks 2.9 1014 AM 12/05 Public Franklin 1 N 2.8 939 AM 12/05 Emergency Mngr Franklin 2.8 947 AM 12/05 Dept of Highways **********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL********************** LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL MEASURED (inches) MARYLAND ...Charles County... La Plata 6 SE 2.5 1000 AM 12/05 CoCoRaHS VIRGINIA ...Highland County... Mill Gap 1 SW 3.2 1000 AM 12/05 Co-Op Observer ...Loudoun County... Lovettsville 3 ESE 0.7 917 AM 12/05 CoCoRaHS &&

Euro ai for that storm

The 12z Euro is frigid w/ a couple of days of real feels that have below zero readings. Both the 12z GEFS and GEPS ensembles show cold temps some time between Dec 14-17th. I suspect we see an anafront(a constant them of mine I know) at some point in that time frame. I think we could see 1-2 very cold air masses push through the area mid-month. And honestly, all of us would probably appreciate some moderation if those come to pass.

I think the main problem is the flow just won’t amplify when we need it to because of the ferocious Pacific jet which knocks the PNA ridge down or nudges it east too much. So even if we have more southern stream energy it will just get booted out to sea. We had plenty of storminess south of us last winter that couldn’t turn the corner. But when we have periods of -PNA, the SE ridge returns with a vengeance and we go back to cutter/SWFE, or risk any -NAO linking up with the ridge. Also in any Nina December we need to make opportunities count when we have cold stretches like these because odds are, later in the winter will be more hostile if anything and many have posted the stats about how we do around NYC when Central Park has over vs under 4” snow in December in a Nina. So I know it’s only 12/5 but given Nina climo, it’s frustrating we’re back to the exact same BS from last winter with wasted dry cold, suppressed garbage then warm/wet.

I ended up at -6.5°.