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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Days with cool temps usually don't do much severe wx wise in the area. This is 3x this season where they had risk with 50s and 60s and it amounted to nothing.
  3. rclab
    I’ll be 109 and I expect an invite. Until that time, as always ……
  4. SnowenOutThere
    My point is this storm deserved a Tornado warning at some point in its lifespan.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Was it July 2018 where we got 18"? One of those July's, I remember it raining like crazy Over the years our thunderstorm season has shifted from the Spring to late June and July.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty neutral here
  7. Stx_Thunder
    3 in. + hailstones appear to be ongoing in the elevated supercell with a very notable and large hail core on radar (sfc temp around 60 F), in Athens vicinity in NTX.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    What would you say is the chance of a continued El Nino in 27-28? 5%? 10%? I would say 5-10%
  9. weathafella
    I’ll turn 110 that year in December. Big party planning in the works!
  10. Voyager
    52 degrees...ugh. Too damn cold.
  11. stormy
    West to East as the LP moves from Parkersburg to Pittsburgh.
  12. Stx_Thunder
    SPC has (Finally) got there act together. Indicating the level 2/2 severe hail intensity area in the latest D1 outlook this afternoon, very close to SAT. Which I mostly agree on for the very large (potentially 5+ in. hail) target zone. Convective initiation is beginning in the Edwards Plateau. San Antonio area no doubt, definitely needs to be on alert through this evening. Abnormally steep ML lapse rates around & above 8, evidently remain across the state today with large hail producing elevated storms ongoing behind the sfc polar front in N-NETX. Even where sfc temps are actually in the 50s.
  13. michsnowfreak
    Id think its way too early to say anything. I mean "potential" is there for a lot of stuff. But with the ability to make snow im sure ski areas will be fine regardless.
  14. kgottwald
    The rain bands had been moving SW to NE, but it looks like they've shifted to W to E. Some yellows on the path to hit Fairfax.
  15. A-L-E-K
    Loser shit, hate it
  16. CoastalWx
    Yesterday was cool here but sunny. Today is dog shit here.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's probably an error. I haven't played around with it yet, but I will probably start keeping a record to see if there is an advantage vs the market. May is 62F - I'm going to say below.
  18. CAPE
    I'll take a 12z Euro, 12z ICON, 19z HRRR blend. All a half inch+ here. Probably another fail though lol.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    The actual PDO-Strong El Nino connection is not as strong as you would think. Here is the strongest events, it's pretty close to neutral - bigger cold pool being hugging, right outside the ENSO warm SSTs, I'd say more in the North Pacific High area (-NOI).
  20. Met1985
    Today's euro is showing multiple shots of well below normal air coming in the next 10 days.
  21. Today
  22. NorthArlington101
    I’m not convinced that’s a TDS in this radar snapshot at least tho I’m hardly a pro here. EDIT: looking at the radar loop I think it *was* one at a point before this screenshot but idk if I t think it’s on the ground here. Might be some debris fallout
  23. SnoSki14
    It's May in the CC era, it doesn't take much to get above normal. The pattern is more about keeping the 90+ heat away than enforcing a cool pattern
  24. SnowenOutThere
    I don't like to criticize the NWS but Charleston dropped the T-storm warning and now has this completely unwarned as it approaches a town which just seems really bad and one of the worst misses I've seen when it comes to tornado signatures. It had a better circulation and more lofted debris ball beforehand too! It even had a separate debris ball 30 minutes ago now!
  25. TimB
    As I recall, we did the same in the first half of May 2017. I remember a day or two that struggled to get out of the 40s, which is what this looks like. Not 2020 levels by any stretch, but still pretty cold. Regardless of intensity, it does seem to have a little staying power, especially on the Euro ensemble. The trough reloads and swings back through later next week and it stays troughy in the east through the end of the run.
  26. tamarack
    Heading into our 29th summer here, all the hail that has landed in our yard (only 2,000 sq.ft., but still) wouldn't fill a one-gallon bucket. One storm might've dropped a flattened chunk 5/8" on its longest surface. (On August 30, 2007, nickels/quarters hail 6-8 miles southeast from from our place accumulated up to 4" and fully defoliated/partially debarked trees on about 2,000 acres, so that kind of excitement isn't impossible here.) Low 60s for the high here, about 10° above the forecast. 3 hours of midday PC did its work.
  27. kgottwald
    Doesn't look like it will get to 68 today as forecast. IAD topping out at 59 so far.
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