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The 12z Canadian is a solid middle ground, similar to recent Euro runs. I would sign for this on Tuesday.

That’s a brutal phase 8 response

A bit strange to see such a dramatic reversal - it's on an island at this point. Even the ensemble isn't quite so drastic with the cut off. If some of the hi res guidance suggested something like this I would start getting concerned, but after seeing the 12z GFS/HRRR, as well as the 15z RAP, I don't think this run was the start of an overall trend. Crossing fingers

Wild how nonchalantly we stumbled into maps like this. Like Alek mentioned, the decent antecedent conditions for once is cool and something I'd willingly accept in lieu of better ratios later on.

My way too early guess for Tuesday. This looks like a classic Poconos jackpot type storm. 12z models so far have gotten slightly flatter/colder but I’m wary of them as the more north/amped solutions win more often than not with these types of storms. PHL: T TTN: C-1” RDG: 1-3” ABE: 1-3” MPO: 4-8”

Honestly if Lamar is injured they should have been upfront with it, and left Huntley in. He played great in our biggest win of the season, against the 8-3 Bears. Lamar has 0TD in the last 3 games.

Not only do I expect this to be rain IYBY I expect it to be mostly rain IMBY too. So not really a homer post. Dendrite's scenario from a few mins ago would be perfect here and hope he's right. But we've seen a steady march NW from the suppressed nonsense a few days ago. NAM IMO will confirm eventually and climo is on the side of elevated interior event.

32 this morning

finished the last mow/leaf cleanup about 30 seconds before the squall hit. Still need to drop the winterizer, might have to wait until tomorrow

Euro has been ass with this one. Hopefully it holds firm.

I don't understand why you would abandon the run up 21-0, with a running back as great as Barkley, unless he is truly hurt.

A weak p.o.s. is on the table imho. Without a stronger higher, the cold air will give up on the fight easier and we'll lose lift. So I'm not feeling locked in on any scenario at this point.

GFS ?? I will be shocked if the GFS wins anything. I hope you have been paying attention all fall. Its been amped with every system but we shall see if its really leading the way or just a figment of someone's imagination

We had one in December 2023 in Boston

Ukmet pretty shredded system still gives far nw 2-3” but it looks nothing like gfs or cmc.

Good afternoon Mountain Thread...new American Wx member here, just moved to NC mountains...or more correctly, the eastern edge between Chimney Rock and Asheville, very near the escarpment. Long time Am Wx lurker, going back to my days living in Northern VA, and reading the infamous Mid Alt sub forum. In fact, I still speak of a walk in the snow, ice, or just bone numbing cold, as a "Jebwalk"., as do some on this board...my two now adult children know this term, and like to check in on me when winter weather is present, and ask if a Jebwalk is on the agenda. In any event, having just moved from Souhtport, NC, I have enjoyed the "real" fall weather in Sep and Oct this year, and am now looking forward to "real" winter weather this winter. I am a bit too far east for NWFS, but occasionally I hope to see flizzards break containment...and otherwise looking fowward to potential winter storms that might bring accumulating snow to this elevation...

Pretty chilly 12z suite incoming so far. Triptofan shut me down last night…so I missed the torch! LOL

Lots and lots of very marginal systems on the guidance the last few days. Let’s get to Christmas with nothing

Color me shocked.

I would wager we see the GFS tone down a bit as we get closer. I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw some other guidance even trend towards the GFS, only for guidance to back down Sunday evening.

ready 2 b buried

Gfs tried the same scenario again on the 6th. Tblizz approved.

GEFS really juiced up

That’s a good take imo.