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Ya hour 6 is probably their range

Always wondered what they mean by “Flat Ice” .

Light snow falling

i bought a ton of "salt" (it's supposed to be natural) from the local Ace Hardware.

NBM Para 18z

I went out earlier to grab a few things and the store was super crowded...I picked up way too many sweets but heh...sugar

So, they are. The thing is that this is by far an overrunning event rather than a typical CCB coastal event. These types of over-running events don't happen too often, and 95% of the time lead to mix or rain. Now, that said, this storm is different in that we have an extremely cold airmass embedding itself over the area on Friday. So things to look forward for are: 1. How / where does the phasing happen over the southern plains. The faster the Sub-Tropical Cut-Off (relative to the pacific stream s/w) ejection the better. 2. The placement and strength of the 850 low over the OHV. The weaker the better, though this is related to #1 3. The strength and more particularly the depth of the cold air wedge that develops on Friday. The stronger the better obviously.

Waaaaay too far out for the SREFs

You missed the storm of a lifetime. I drove home from setauket through port jeff to mt. Sinai. Almost didn't make it. Snowing harder then I've ever seen the rates were incredible. Was passing so many who were stuck on the roads. Barely made it in my jeep. There was thunder snow no joke for like an hour straight on the mt sinai harbor. I measured 33 inches where I was. It was un believable. Also the storm i compare all others to since. We were right on the rain /snow line for hours right before sunset. Once the sun set it was incredible.

No Bam!! We need to see him wallow in defeat!! This storm has become personal lol .

Radar looks (decent ) . Hopefully continues thru about midnight and can extend out East

WB 21Z SREF thru 1am Sunday

Not sure why it was more north with that h5 look it’s not as phased. Interesting stuff

I know everyone is stressed. I get it. We're 36 hours out and prime time for the rug pull. But don't worry folks. My snow shovel broke last year and my wife was adamant that I walk down to the hardware store this afternoon to get one. I said no dear, totally not needed. You're welcome.

Lots of possibilities out there. Tomorrow is the day to at least understand what will happen.

Coating here had a quick burst now big fat mood flakes (ansonia) .

You should try it, can't possibly hurt.

SE WI about to get flogged

It does, I know reading into the updates of the new version that it mainly applies the Cobb method for snow ratios. I think the current version does to a degree as well, not sure. But the NBM snow maps do factor in variable ratios.

Thanks to Stovepipe's creative brilliance, I'm afreight of going to bed tonight. That Bam face can haunt for days.

Coating down here in ansonia with big fat mood flakes now. Had a short lived burst .

Who’s ready for some 00z runs with newly ingested data?

Chattanooga exit ramp is regular rain. Sure as hell isn't snow with these trends. NBM, EC and implied Euro AI is now less ice in Chatty. Looking at above freezing temps during the heaviest QPF. I'm looking hard locally for personal and work staffing decision. Now, the rest of work by way of the rest of the service territory, looks pretty awful somewhere. Worst areas will be determined by lack of sleet (all FZRA) and of course QPF under the ice soundings. Some of Tenn could get some help from sleet. North Mississippi ice is lookin' rough. I will log off before 00Z runs arrive. Might be up but I'll be watching basketball. Thursday morning I hope to add a last post. From there work will escalate.

12z X

I needed some stuff from Costco and it was much more crowded than usual. and grocery pick up slots for tomorrow are selling out early. and dinner is Costco beef brisket burnt ends. pretty good.