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Yeah, I was just gonna type that. heh that said, there's a lot depending on the N/stream orientation in this - it's almost purely a geometry problem, really. If the elbow of the N/stream's east turn is oriented W-E ...we're fucked. If it's even 15 deg headed N of due E we're probably getting fuzzy chalk dust snow up to HFD... go up from there.

Yeah that's because it was a little weaker with precip amounts, moisture was not as heavy as 6z.

ZR or IP?

For DCA (due to its low bias) and southern MD, maybe. But generally I’d put the bar at 18”. The old rule of thumb is top 10 snowstorm on record.

The AIGFS has about 50 percent more QPF than the GFS imby. .51 on the GFS, .90 on the AI.

12 gefs

We all know the gfs won’t catch on till hour 6

When the ensembles disagree with the OP that is a major red flag. OP is most likely out to lunch.

I didn't say I was. They are certainly possible and I'm always hoping for a lot of snow. But climatology leans toward UK.

Little too early to be in the bullseye, so buyer beware. Pattern is a more stable one, but with a slightly slower ejection out of the SW, it makes me nervous at 5 days out. If it were 2 days out, i'd feel a bit better. Something to consider as we move forward.

It’s gonna be 33 and rain.

The events like that are definitely prone to the screw jobs....just a weak low with ton of overrunning...had a bad screw job, but yea...everyone was around 1', at least.

I was also having a bit of a crash out from some Feb 20th flashbacks with that GFS run. Though with the GEFS still looking that solid we're fine unless the Euro tries to ruin our lives. Just want to see the GFS move back to us at 18z and we'll be all good.

I was coming here to say this. GEFS didn’t really move apart from noise level changes. Op was probably one of the few members that held the sw back too much.

Well said. One other item worth mentioning is that as we near an event, the "extreme" solutions tend to fade. If that happens, you see the few rogue 20"+ ensemble members come back to reality and that can tweak the ensemble mean downward. This translates to people thinking the event is "falling apart" when in fact it's just leaning towards a moderate/significant incident versus and major/historic.

Don't write off the GFS and Euro, either, because you just don't want to get your hopes up.

Well it certainly cant go any further south. All but GFS have ticked north a bit.

I'm getting asked how much it's going to snow this weekend. I say 9". They keep telling me 2' like Apple Weather says. JFC

It's still dependent on if there is any phasing or not. The 12z GFS misses the phase and eventually shears the upper low out. The 12z Canadian forces the upper low out which brings the precip farther north/west.

Good spot to be on an ens mean at this lead! VA can have their jackpot, Im quite fine sitting at a half foot on a mean.

The UKIE is an amped up QPF giant that has a too big warm nose up the Apps. It's know for thermal issues. Still snows well over a foot in places, especially middle Tennessee.

Having the UKIE moving towards the Euro is encouraging

When will everything be in scope (on the field)? Thursday?

Snow totals were less here for 12Z.

Really PD2 like per my memory. Massive moisture plume correcting north in the final 3 days. To be fair, everyone from DC-BOS got the goods-as in 1-2 feet.