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Max: 24 Min: 2 Snow: 0.5

ULL up over Maine just cut that s/w down to almost nothing at the Surface. Goofy Fucking System model.

Have fun and be ready for some wind, which I am sure your aware. I was somewhat stunned to see gusts forecast up to 55 mph in Asheville for Saturday. Just looked at Banner Elk: Saturday Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a northwest wind 24 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph.

Could be north of that

Weeklies for last week of February into March look stormy and cold

wienermobile coming to delaware this weekend

I don't know. Looks like the SW is coming out instead of getting stuck but that doesn't mean it will be a good result lol. Also do I email my W2s to you?

You mean it changed, 152K

GfsAI has a storm for next Sunday. Looks snow to rain, then back to snow as low travels through N VA.

They won’t radiate Saturday night with strong CAA but Sunday night they might. Winds take a while to subside and there could be some cloud cover trying to move in so we may not see a lot of radiators going wild during this cold shot, but the best chance is Sunday night.

Which literally means nothing that far out. Track the stuff on your doorstep first... 28F

The East had a winter. The West had a summer.

Geesh, I guess not. I’m probably in the minority here but I’m not really all that impressed with the wind threat if we’re talking strictly from a mph standpoint. Most guidance and that includes the high res stuff like the HRRR that normally ramps up surface winds barely support advisory winds much less anything of the variety that would cause widespread power outages. But I could get on board with a wind advisory for 45-50mph I suppose. Basically a typical wind event in other words, it gusts to 60mph at @canderson’s house in those anyways haha. This event also has a more northerly trajectory to the wind as well being more NW or even NNW.. less of a direct downslope component to enhance wind gusts IMO. What I am impressed with is the COMBO of the winds and cold temperatures. Dynamically this will be the coldest shot of the winter to date. The more northerly component to the wind minimizes modification of the airmass source travelling over the Lakes, which already have a good bit of ice with Erie >95% covered. Non-diurnal “High” temps for Saturday will occur before about 3-4am Sat morning. Sat daytime temps will struggle to get out of the single digits in most of the area. Laurels and some north-central might not crack zero. You can see how there’s an appendage of non-modified Arctic air that reaches PA. I drew the rough surface wind direction. It mostly goes over the frozen portion of Huron and Erie. Saturday morning will probably be the worst for wind chills, though it won’t be good all day. I think most of that extreme cold watch has a good chance of being upgraded to the full blown warning. Here’s the kind of wind chills the 18z HRRR put out after daybreak Saturday morning. I haven’t really seen those kind of wind chills since the Christmas 2022 cold shot.

You guys will be shocked to know that the 18z GFS h5 map is vastly different out west. But looks like that s/w is headed for shredderola

Do the valleys still radiate in these events, or do winds protect from that?

Mesos , and then Euro in that order

We still have another couple weeks of Niña trade winds to fook any chances of getting Niño benefits. That's just the way it works around here unfortunately.

SSW November's? I don't know. Maybe 10? On my old computer I plotted all 10mb events since 1948, but I don't have that data anymore, just memory of what the end result showed. 10mb warmings are lagged to AO, and 10mb coolings happen with AO in now-time (0-day)

I'll take my chances with that after this past 7 year clownshow.

No liberty is someone else

Andddd the midweek storm on the GFS is like nothing like it was at 12z lol

NJ may receive a nice little event... 29F

Interesting. How many occurrences were there?

@GaWx Did a research earlier this season and found that a Nov SSW had a significantly high correlation with cold December and January. I found in my research that a Nov SSW had ~+35-40 day lag with the -AO/NAO, and that worked out this year, but the correlation numbers weren't so high on the Pacific pattern. Gawx also found that -ENSO/-PNA Decembers led +PNA January's 10/10 times! donsoutherland did an independent research and found the same thing. It worked out this year time 11/11. Why? I don't really know. The opposite side +ENSO/+PNA Decembers leading -PNA January's doesn't work out the same.

Indeed the NAM a little more impressed with the snow squalls tomorrow night. Saturday will be the coldest day of what has been one of our coldest winters in years!