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SLEET BOMB!!!!

And that’s why it’s known as the GooFuS!

I’m not ruling out a s shift again. Who knows. BTW. Here are the 12z Ukmet ensembles

Speaking of ensembles, the 12z Canadians were in line with other ensembles too despite the operational.

Rare instance where the OP GFS will lead the ensembles, but the GFS has been all over the place so it's incredibly hard to trust no matter which way it goes. Frustrating model.

18z CMC only goes out to hr 84 but definitely more amped compared to 12z

Putting this here one more time before people make their plans tomorrow - planning to get to Succotash in DC around 5pm tomorrow to meet some folks. Totally accessible on every metro line. I’ll share my # with folks who are in tomorrow. Think right now it could be: Me @nj2va @yoda @nw baltimore wx @DownpourDave Happy to sit and drink a little and talk with whoever showed up - just spent a whole weekend with @katabatic so happy to meet more folks

We want that coastal cranking and a quick handoff.

Isn’t that the case usually? When we see these shifts inside 100 hours it seems to usually be related to NS features which are harder to resolve anyways and are diving down from sparsely sampled regions.

alex what's the latest maps wise?

Perfect track so all in the region stays frozen- with just a bit of sleet around SBY. Ofc it probably wont work out this way.

I mean, they know more than we do, so I don’t see why we shouldn’t trust their knowledge in this. .

There are some really dumb people posting in the main thread. I'm dumb, but I'm not posting there much.

Definitely a good sign when PBZ is discussing contingency plans.

Yea that was a pretty classic winter storm, just with a lot more moisture than normal. If the sleet areas held the bad ZR would be pretty limited and most would have several inches of concrete with fluff on top. Not a sexy storm but that would be quite fun given the alternatives we’ve seen. Let’s see others trend that way before getting too excited but it’s pretty obvious what needs to happen to achieve somewhat of a win here

Ensembles ticked better, OP was just the trashcan Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Sarcasm: what is it

I’ll gladly take.

Nice make up for tomorrow.

It does include sleet however.

Didn't see it posted, pardon me if it was. The 12z Ukie ensembles. Back to looking a lot like 0z with DCA/BWI being the bullseye.

Looks like snow squall type performance incoming

3+ inches of sleet on the GFS for like the entire center chunk of NC

Looks like GFS and ICON are outliers on opposite ends of the spectrum.