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GFS also sticking with the colder solution. If only it were a good model...sigh.

I agree in some ways, especially since no one’s complaining if we get a 2014 10-14” thump

Agree, what happens south of the Merrit and between 287 and 80 is still a big questionmark

It does seem that we may stick with mixing a bit longer but the freezing rain potential is huge and severe. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Models look great! Back to work

Gonna hug the terrible GFS

Slight bump north and bump up ion QPF on GFS.

Man, this is a cold powder event for everyone away from the coast. Single digit temperatures to start. GFS has me getting beyond -30 tonight. Snowing near zero.

Elevated wintry thunderstorms are looking pretty likely now in ETX (where it's most probable to occur), with lots of 850Mb - 700Mb WAA there. Euro is even showing unusually decent 850Mb instability from around Tyler area and south Saturday night. With lifted-index values down to -3. Definitely would not rule out a sig amount of CG lightning with those kind of instability values. Quite unstable and abnormal for this kind of Arctic airmass setup. This is looking to be similar to the post-frontal Arctic airmass convective event in the state back in March 2014. Where I even had some pretty strong storms in STX with substantial CG lightning activity that one night. Even though sfc temps were in the 30s. Which I had never experienced before.

Gfs basically stayed the same. A little less snow to the north but went up a bit south

I don't have and don't want an X account - can't you start a thread here ?

I think they are for inside of 128.

GFS continues with a decent front end thump of snow in the mid to northern tier of western piedmont/foothills NC counties, including McDowell, Burke, Catawba, and points to their NE. I’m really hoping that verifies. Should be pretty to watch fall late Saturday afternoon/evening.

Some NYC area Mets are increasing totals for the city this morning. Others, like Tomer, are really down playing things and seem skeptical of even 6 inches in the city. https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/2014682599302607146?s=20

But this is an example of where I think AI is just broadly spreading QPF rather than honing in on details. That’s a lot more QPF in NNE vs deterministic models and less in SNE.

I think we want it to amp early. The low is way way west of us. Toggle the full us map at 39. That stream of overrunning is what we want and not some disjointed flat system. If it’s flat it sends the best early stuff south and we wait for the second and that comes with the warmth.

GFS slay

Yeah that was somewhat similar as far as amounts go but this looking significantly bigger and much longer duration. Not mention the cold after this one is long lasting. So no melting really at all.

Told you yesterday there was a limit with PV pressing, west NAO block and 50/50 low.

12z GFS gets heavier precip in quicker- nice thump

GFS ups Ice totals for the valley some

I wish NE had home field advantage in the playoffs... That would have been a fun game to watch.