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Feels like this will be common theme this summer. I don’t mind some cool rainy days but it starts to get depressing pretty quick. GFS/Euro have ULL’s next week and another on the horizon for the first week of June. I’m sure it will change but probably not lol.

The warming of the Arctic weakens the PV which is what is causing this eastern trough

As Kevin would say, I hope those who asked for this are happy.

I know I'll take it lol. As a matter of fact I'll take a cool summer even though we're probably gonna have to pay for this weather at some point. I fear the sauna is nigh

Currently at .58” and raining steady

Seriously??? Next week... Memorial Day A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Rain nearing the Eastern shore currently, so far today with .27 inches of rain, I will taske it.

I was noticing the light tonight too. It's wonderful.

Had the windows open this morning. Got down to 63 and it's back up to 70 without the heat on. I like to sleep at 62, would go lower but my wife won't let me

Chilly weather has arrived. Looks like a wet pattern arrived with our pesky upper trough. Models are suggesting upper air pattern remains active across the Mountains into early June.

52/37 up here right now. However, if it's this light at 8:30pm even with clouds, and we have another month of gaining daylight... need to get out and try to enjoy it. Hope we get some nice warm evenings over the next two months to enjoy the late daylight.

Im in Westchester…my heat kicked on several times this month. I dont remember using it past the first week of May and I have been there for 9 years. Also lit the fireplace this morning for mood

Upstairs and down currently reading 65 and 64 respectfully. Did turn the heat on for about 30 minutes this morning only because we left a few windows open a bit overnight and it was chilly. Gotta let the cool air in! Bedroom windows open about an inch. That's what blankets and flannel sheets are for.

I don't think that applies with this - CTP was calling for .75" - 1.00" during the day today. I got .21" which was more than most. Adding up quickly tonight though- currently sitting at .54" with moderate to heavy rain falling.

Another case of delayed but not denied with good rain tonight. If this was a Winter Storm, the punters would have been out in full force today, Lol! Patience is not a virtue on here.

Just came home and had to turn the heat on too.. :-/

Year: May forecast for ASO BoM/Euro, actual ASO, BoM miss vs Euro miss 2024: -0.1/-0.5 -0.2 +0.1 vs -0.3 2023: +2.5/+1.8 +1.6 +0.9 vs +0.2 2022: -0.4/-0.3 -1.0 +0.6 vs +0.7 2021: -0.5/0.0 -0.7 +0.2 vs +0.7 2020: -0.8/-0.3 -0.9 +0.1 vs +0.6 2019: +0.2/+0.7 +0.2 0.0 vs +0.5 2018: -0.2/+0.6 +0.5 -0.7 vs +0.1 2017: +0.2/+0.8. -0.4 +0.6 vs +1.2 2016: -0.8/-0.5 -0.6 -0.2 vs +0.1 2015: +1.6/+2.4 +2.2 -0.6 vs +0.2 2014: +0.8/+1.5 +0.2 +0.6 vs +1.3 2013: -0.8/-0.1 -0.3. -0.5 vs +0.2 ----------------------------------- 2012: +0.9/+0.8 +0.4 +0.5 vs +0.4 2011: +1.2/-0.2 -0.8 +2.0 vs +0.6 2010: -0.4/-0.9 -1.6 +1.2 vs +0.7 2009: +1.4/+0.8 +0.7 +0.7 vs +0.1 2008: +0.3/-0.2 -0.2 +0.5 vs 0.0 2007: -1.0/-0.8 -1.1 +0.1 vs +0.3 ----------------------------------- 2006: -1.0/+0.4 +0.3 -1.3 vs +0.1 2005: +1.0/+0.4 -0.1 +1.1 vs +0.5 2004: +0.7/+0.5 +0.6 +0.1 vs -0.1 2003: -0.9/-0.4 +0.2 -1.1 vs -0.6 2002: +1.0/+0.7 +0.9 +0.1 vs -0.2 ------------------------------------- Analysis: 1) 2023-4: -BOM had avg miss of +0.5 -Euro had ~no net bias; 2024 was 1st time May Euro was too cool since way back in 2004 (major outlier)! 2) 2013-22: - BoM had no net bias (average miss of 0.0) with 3 significantly too warm and 3 significantly too cold - Euro had a strong warm bias (average miss of +0.6) with 6 of 10 significantly too warm - BoM cooler than Euro 10 of 10 and significantly colder 8 of 10 years 3) 2007-12: - BoM had a strong warm bias (average miss of +0.8) with 5 of 6 significantly too warm - Euro had a moderate warm bias (average miss of +0.35) with 2 of 6 significantly too warm - BoM warmer than Euro 5 of 6 4) 2002-06: based on JAS, not ASO - BoM had a moderate cold bias (average miss of -0.4) with 2 of 5 significantly too cold and 1 of 5 significantly too warm - Euro had no net bias (avg miss ~0) —————— May 2025 predictions for ASO: BoM +0.4 Euro +0.1 Conclusions -Based just on these two, I’d lean to ~-0.2 ASO ONI. -But the two most accurate May forecasts overall for ASO have recently been the UKMET and JMA. UK has it way down to -0.9 and JMA has -0.5. Also, MetFrance tends to be too warm. It’s at 0.0. -So, based on all of these 5, I’d lean to ~-0.5 for ASO ONI as of now (vs -0.2 in 2024). That implies ASO RONI of ~-1.0.

OVC and 47/40°F what a spring so far.

Heat kicked on in my house lol

I just did a 2 mile walk with the dog and it is chilly. 48° with a light breeze.

Trade bait. To Jump start the next rebuild.

Worked outside in the rain yesterday and today. Chilly and wet but I love being outside in the elements for a living. Sorry if you don’t. Going to run numbers tonight but Minneapolis has probably seen 30%+ of its total precipitation for 2025 this last 72 hours.

...but we digress. Not the right thread for this debate. In other news: Observation in western Camden County NJ shows a continued aversion to predicted rainfall amounts. Under the trees is still dry aafter todays rain "shield" continued to wedge apart around us. Its beyond random and seems to continue proving the adage thsat "dry begets dry". Its uncanny in how many instances this year, blobs. bands or waves of rain have avoided, split apart or otherwise dissolved as this area has been approached. Its been going on for months, seemingly- and I'm betting that our deficit in this immediate area is significantly more than other areas in the D.V. Local landscapers report on dead or dying shrubs and ornamentals that are commonplace since late last summer. Seems too repeatable to be coincidence.

High of 57. Normal for the date is 75. 0.34” of rain so far with another batch ready to move in. Up to 6.30” for the month.

I think you need to be further n and w