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Very impressive overnight heat retention today in western New York. We will have to see if these temperatures hold, but the low of 75F would tie the record high minimum in Buffalo (1936) and the low of 73F would tie the record high minimum in Rochester (1987). At Watertown, the morning low was just 78F, 4F above the record high (74F, in 2016) and just 1F shy of the all-time record high minimum of 79F set on July 21, 2011 (records dating to 1949). The morning low of 76F at Syracuse would easily surpass the daily record high minimum of 73F, set in 1972. Developing convection could wreak havoc on these, although with dewpoints so high they might hold regardless.

0.98” here in 35 minutes. tapering off now

83 / 73 been 70 - 80% cloudy most the day. Late clearing could get some mid /upper 80s

Yeah, that was the coldest July 4th low for many across the region. Data for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEWCOMB COOP 37 VT MOUNT MANSFIELD COOP 37 NY LAKE PLACID 2 S COOP 38 NY RAY BROOK COOP 39 VT CAVENDISH COOP 39 VT ENOSBURG FALLS COOP 39 for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 35 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 39 NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 41 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 41 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 42 NJ NEWTON COOP 42 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 43 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 43 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 43 NJ PEMBERTON COOP 44 PA HOPEWELL MORGANTOWN COOP 45 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 45 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 45 PA COATESVILLE 2 W COOP 45 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 46 PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP 46 NJ TOMS RIVER COOP 46 PA NESHAMINY FALLS COOP 46 PA BUCKSVILLE COOP 46 NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 46 Data for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 41 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 43 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 43 NJ CRANFORD COOP 44 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 44 CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 44 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 45 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 47 NY WESTBURY COOP 47 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 47 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 48 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 48 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 48 CT GROTON COOP 48 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 49 NY GARNERVILLE COOP 49 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 50 NY MINEOLA COOP 50 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 50 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 51 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 51 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 51 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 52 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 52 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 52 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 52 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 53 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 54 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 54 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 54 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 54 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 54 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 55 NY SCARSDALE COOP 55 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 55 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 56 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 57 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 58 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 59 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 59

One note on the IEM estimates, they tend to be off from the actual NCEI values. Comparing 1936 summer as a whole, they have it warmer than NCEI in many places (except the southwest, which they show as decidedly colder). I think the estimates for recent years are generally the opposite bias (i.e., a bit cooler). Either way, should come in as a very warm summer for the CONUS. Not sure we poach 2021 or 1936 though.

Some beautiful cells blossoming between Raleigh and here. Unfortunately they do not appear to be moving much at all.

I'll send you my PayPal ID. If it's not too much trouble, throw in a couple 6-packs.

Heck of an outflow coming off those storms east of Raleigh. edit: delete ginormous video.

Wonder if we'll finally break this strong +AO pattern, that has been there since May..

Thought I was going to get another soaker but it collapsed about 1/4th mile from my house and then re-intensified about a mile past my house. Barely sprinkled at my house. Heavy standing water close by on either side as a drove to town.

The mesos hate Harrisburg today. Outside looking in on two of them Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Gotta love the detail on an October 11 forecast. Fairbanks...

Seeing Jurassic Park 34 in 3d with the kiddo. Ever time I've watched one of these in theaters it storms. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

For comparison purposes, here are 1936 & 2021 to date. These are the two hottest summers on record for the CONUS. 1936 2021

I was in Port Jervis for the parade yesterday and despite the clouds and “cooler” temperatures there was no shortage of sweat going around for all body types as it felt like we might have been on the threshold of hell, and there was a breeze there too.

Ok I change my tune. The entire weather system is going to miss Buda. No measurable rain at all. I have been watching every Kerrville video on YouTube. I have been listing every last one of them on my new wiki. I want lots of rain, now. I want Plum Creek to Kerrville Rt 1626 at 967. I want my very own YouTube vid of Kerrville Buda. I crave disaster declarations for northern Hays County where I live. Turns out that I adore Kerrville and Ruidoso with all my heart. I wanna watch those water levels rise! I want to get some live flood readings, while I limp along on my bad knee. I am no different from what I was in Dale City. I still enjoy this stuff with all my heart. I am a billion year flood weenie.

Agreed. Incredible out there

Wow? Why would @ChescoWxweenie this post? These are raw, unadjusted data collected from a number of locations with PORs of 100-150+ years, and a sizeable number of them are from rural locations - including Elkins, West Virginia, which has seen its hottest start to summer on record [and by a sizeable margin, at that]. I would have thought this data would be right up his alley, since he doesn't care for any adjustments.

I remember seeing the fireworks for the rededucation of the Statue Of Liberty. July 3-6, 1986. It was chilly. I believe the temperature dropped to the lower 50’s. If I remember correctly windchill was actually an uncomfortable factor that night. I was 39 at the time. Stay well, as always … Lots

Depends what beaches you go to. Jones beach, Long Beach, Coney Island not great. head out to smith point park, coopers beach, east Hampton beach, they are excellent. Coopers beach ranked #1 beach in America. It’s excellent and better than any Florida beach. im sure Greece beaches are nice. But to say the beaches on the island aren’t good is just wrong

Wait, is that a real product? If so, what a waste of computing.

Watching those storms in charles county but they seem to be stuck there and not moving east much. Clouds have rolled in to Calvert at least so it's not as bad outside. Checking the cams up in DC and it's pouring at the house up there.

Full cloud cover here 10 miles north

Yep full sun here now. Getting hot