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not seeing any end to the mild weather anytime soon

And spread out over 24-48 hours. Not much consistency on when it’s raining for the metro areas.

This is an interesting take regarding AMO activity. The conclusion makes sense when you connect volcanic events during the inactive period timeframes. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abc5810 Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing

If we do in fact end up below 100 ACE, I think we need to seriously reconsider the 3 main factors the majority of people use for tropical seasonal forecasts…..ENSO state, MDR SSTs and the overall AMO state

Above average temps will couple with it. Nina is almost always warm/wet cold/dry.

That pacific look is awful actually for the eastern US. The strongest warm anomalies are in the western pac. I think this is gonna reinforce western Aleutian ridging and troughing over the rockies. Should be a very familiar feeling winter for the I95, similar to the last few years with western storm tracks/great lakes cutters.

Now that we're in CAM range, what really stands out to me is that this is going to me much more of a showery event than the rain shield I was expecting.

Congrats on the red tag!

Hatteras buoy is now reporting sustained 35 kt wind with gusts approaching 50 kts. Likely to be an unpleasant day on the obx

We're getting there... slowly... it at least appears better than last night's you posted.

WB 12Z GFS for midweek.

I guessing upwelling from the Hurricane that scooted off to our east about 2 weeks ago?

If this indeed turns out to be this year's nadir, I find that interesting - it'd be the earliest of all recent seasons, regardless of magnitudes, whence the nadir took place

wonder what's causing that cold patch off our coast?

So... As we start to see all the " Hype factor " for this upcoming Winter.... A new one just popped up. It's the CFS model and it shows very cold air for December, January, and February for much of the Central and Eastern US. I'm just not sure if that is a reliable model or not ( at least compared to the other Global models ).

Latest SST anomaly

boy is this weather boring.....and fantastic. Could definitely use some rain. trails and streams are bone dry.

Top 50 6 month dry periods timeline Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I just hope no rain this summer will not mean no snow this winter. It cannot go on forever? Maybe it can and the Earth, thanks to us (sorry little editorialization), is moribund and going to Hell in a handbasket, whatever. But I don't want to be on man-made snow all winter. East Coast crud, "packed powder," ice patches, dirt poking through. All adds to the challenge, but man, I want some powder! Don't make me shell out a couple month's pay to go out West, please. I can't really afford that this year, or usually, unless it's some business-related thing (rare for me of late). So, just give me a good ol' fashioned winter like with I ran the lifts at Mount Snow upon returned to New England from five years in San Francisco. It was 1996 - 1997, I believe, record snow year up til then. We were open from Halloween to tax day (six months). I got 150 fricken days snowboarding in--all day 8am - 4pm days off, five runs per day when I worked. I grew up going to that mountain since I was a kid in Boston/Mass. Give me more of that, please!

BOS with a massive torch yesterday … +0.6F. -2.2F MTD ORH was +3.8F. -1.2 MTD should begin to swing towards AN this week.

Seems like we wont' be getting anything meaningful from that pos system off the mid-atlantic either.

-Invest 92L has significant ACE potential (10-15+) with much of this coming from the subtropics -The active Euro Weeklies for 9/22-10/12 show absolutely no resemblance to the relative quiet of the season overall to this point

It may never rain again.

Are you seeing September finish above normal for the park? I'm seeing a lot of muggy nights (almost 70 degree overnight lows!) in the upcoming week, which should erode the cooler start totally.

The source region to our west has been record dry since August 1st.