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The GEFS last December was hinting at a big push into 7. But the MJO slowed in the warmer 5-6 phases mid to late December with the +EPO warm up. We did briefly get a MJO 8 last January but it was more pronounced in 1-3. Then the MJO missed phase 8 last February when we had the first 5 sigma Greenland block link up with the Southeast ridge.

That's what happens when you save my posts.

Man, it is warm today. The southern wind sings again an island lullaby.

Cataloochee snow makers are busy placing portable snow guns around the base this morning. Looks like a good 36 to 48 hours of snow making on the mountain and also at Tube World in town!

Just over an inch here in Southern Wisconsin.

December is 2.5 weeks away…

It wasn’t Dec. of ‘24. Yeah, you must be thinking of another year, perhaps ‘23 as you suggested though ‘23 actually had a pretty strong 1 and 2 Dec 23-31 (maybe models were too strong in 8 though). Here’s ‘23: For Dec of ‘24, they correctly predicted 4-5-6-7 (they didn’t predict 8-1-2), but they tended to not be strong enough in 4-5:

Both Lindzen and Happer have been paid by players in the fossil fuel industry to cast doubt on climate science. I'll also remind readers here that Lindzen was paid by the tobacco industry to cast doubt there as well. Anyway, consensus in science is an inevitable result when the majority of scientists form their positions around the consilience of evidence. A consensus position is not always correct like was the case with the luminiferous ether, phlogiston, dismissal of continental drift, etc. but it is a position that represents the best understanding of reality given the evidence available. Being suspicious of consensus isn't a necessarily bad thing especially if it does not cross the threshold into psedudoskepticsism. The real problem with Lindzen's statement is the implication that consensus is always wrong and contrarianism is always right. I think he forgets Sagan's even more powerful principal that extraordinary claims (think contrarian claims here) require extraordinary evidence.

Closing in on 3” here now. Absolutely shocked

Gorgeous out. 59F.

Next week looks pretty chilly. My highest forecast is 52. Tuesday will be a struggle to hit 40. More 20's to come.

True, that’s another difference…+QBO back in 2010

Very heavy thunderstorm in progress.

Some sun this morning, but showers are possible almost anytime today and tonight. We could see between 0.15" to 0.25" of rain by late tonight. Today will be our last mild day with temperatures a couple of degrees above normal with low 60's in the valleys. A strong cold front moves through late tonight and we fall back to near 40 degrees by morning. Our high temperature tomorrow will occur at midnight tonight with temperatures only rising a couple of degrees tomorrow morning before falling to freezing by tomorrow evening. Tuesday will likely see the higher spots remaining in the 30's for high temperatures. We will moderate a bit by Wednesday but temperatures for the rest of the week will remain well below normal for mid-November with highs struggling to escape the 40's through the week.

Some sun this morning, but showers are possible almost anytime today and tonight. We could see between 0.15" to 0.25" of rain by late tonight. Today will be our last mild day with temperatures a couple of degrees above normal with low 60's in the valleys. A strong cold front moves through late tonight and we fall back to near 40 degrees by morning. Our high temperature tomorrow will occur at midnight tonight with temperatures only rising a couple of degrees tomorrow morning before falling to freezing by tomorrow evening. Tuesday will likely see the higher spots remaining in the 30's for high temperatures. We will moderate a bit by Wednesday but temperatures for the rest of the week will remain well below normal for mid-November with highs struggling to escape the 40's through the week.

My thoughts exactly.. I'm just happy I could enjoy first flakes this morning and not just some overnight mix

Looks like the snow line is from Gene to N Conway

It’s possible I’m mistaken? But I thought that happened last December? Maybe it was the year before?

Yes, I agree. I don't see O'Hare getting the top-end accumulations. I still think 4" or above is reachable, but not guaranteed given this setup.

If it works out perfectly, you’re getting Buffalo-ed. As you well know, odds say it won’t. But, if it does…

Welp, it's currently snowing at my cabin, so time to start my season totals.

33.9F Moderate catpaws

This is your winter.

Overall short term guidance seems pretty consistent with the snow band. 12z suite came a touch west with the main band compared to 06z, but only time will tell. Nevertheless, trying to not get my hopes up too much as we know how these setups can easily pull out of NE IL and into NE IN pretty fast

If any of this verifies in lakeshore areas around the city, the mess it'll cause will be off the charts. I lived in Cobb County GA during a early December snowstorm and it took down power lines across the area. The night of the snowfall was lit up by transformers blowing across the area