All Activity

KFS knew.

I mean what an evening . He never acknowledges all the times KFS forecasts well

Hopefully Scooter does the right thing and hands his degree over to you.

63 was the high here at 1k. I was off by 2 degrees so missed that a bit I’ll let you all be the judge .. who had the better Tolland forecast today ?

We have been due for a crappy Memorial Day weekend. Looking more likely now.

Last week at this time looked like 80s this upcoming week, reality is clouds and rain

Woke up to 57 this am. Beautiful day here with a high of 78.

Funny, had almost the opposite. .98 this time, .28 last storm

The last "event" was one of the biggest short term busts in recent memory. Forecast rainfall totals here before last minute adjustments as the event was unfolding: 1-1.5" Total rainfall here: 0.05" Luckily prior events performed/overperformed and got my area out of the drought. Really need a solid inch of rain now though as it has gotten pretty dry again.

Next Friday into the weekend looks intriguing per afternoon AFD from LWX After a short reprieve, the system later in the week will have a lot more fuel to work with. As high temperatures on Friday are expected to rise into the mid/upper 80s (coupled with dew points approaching 70 degrees), instability should be plentiful. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible as this system tracks through on Friday into early next weekend. Details hopefully become more apparent in the next few days.

Afternoon AFD from LWX makes it sound good The upper low will continue to slowly drift northeastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley Monday into Monday night. As this occurs, showers will gradually overspread the area from southwest to northeast. As it stands now, most guidance holds precipitation off in the DC Metro until the late afternoon or early evening hours, with precipitation not starting until after dark Monday night around Baltimore. The rain may start to become steadier and moderate to locally heavy at times by late Monday night, especially across Central Virginia. By Monday night, model soundings show deep, saturated profiles, with very limited instability and precipitable water values closing in on 1.5 inches. The lack of instability should limit rainfall rates somewhat, with most of the rain falling as a steady, soaking rain as opposed to very heavy downpours that you`d typically see with a summer thunderstorm. Still, model guidance hints that rainfall totals may reach around 1-2 inches across Central Virginia by daybreak Tuesday, with more rain expected to fall Tuesday into at least Wednesday (see long term discussion below). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A highly amplified and blocky synoptic pattern sets up for a majority of next week. The initial feature of interest is a slow moving closed low which is currently spinning over the Deep South. This deep and anomalous system is set to become more negatively- tilted in time while crossing the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Eventually this trough begins to evolve into more of an open wave as it treks toward the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week. The slow forward motion of this particular system may not see the trough axis pass by until Thursday morning. At this point, the associated surface fronts exit into the coastal Atlantic as high pressure briefly returns. Mid/upper heights begin to build in earnest by late in the work week ahead of the next weather maker. What is currently a strong upper trough off the West Coast will undergo a complex evolution across the nation over the next several days. As expected, a large array of spread is noted across the board when evaluating all recent guidance. The overall pattern shift does favor unsettled conditions on Friday into portions of next weekend. Looking more closely at Tuesday into Wednesday, the mentioned closed low will tap into anomalous Gulf moisture. Characterized by anomalies around 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above normal, this system will interact with strong dynamics with the upper low to produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Ensembles support around 2 to 3 inches of rain during a 24 to 48 hour period. Depending on how much of this falls at once, there will be some flood threat that emerges. However, this will depend on location and intensity of such showers.

Yeah, this afternoon/ early evening is really nice. Gets the drying out process going so hopefully fields will dry out for sports tomorrow.

The latest guidance takes the heaviest rain next week west of the B.R...............................

Can't wait to see how we get screwed again this time.

Sun peaking out. At last.

I’m going bold and 1.01” by sunset Thursday in mby.

12z euro says I’m about a factor of 10 too low and you’re about a factor of 50 lol. But I’ll keep the betting line where is is for now

3.03' event 5.17" MTD

Less than half that here - approaching 0.9" but we're about done. Still without a 1"+ day this year. PWM reported 2.20" from 2 AM thru 2 PM. Might be a few puddles there.

"mild mid morning on" It's not March.

Sun was out by late morning . Looks like my high was 60.. so I was off by 5

Isn't this the same pattern we had in the winter?

Yes, it was in the 90s even inside my house. I remember that day it hit 102 in the city and 101 at JFK, it was the third straight for the city and second straight for JFK, on a Saturday, and the sun looked orange. My dad was gardening outside and when I went out there with him, I asked him how he could garden with no breeze and an orange sun beating down lol. I woke up at 9 am it was already 92 degrees at 9 am at JFK, that's how I knew we were in for a historic day.

it was a beautiful day when i went out this morning temps in mid 50's very gusty breeze almost lost my hat a few times..

Finally a little sun! It was missed.