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Hope I’m wrong. The upcoming pattern on some of these runs reminds me of March 2010/2012 but I’m ready for one more good run afterwards.

well....maybe not a decade, hopefully only a couple ratters, then roll out a handful of events that just want to one up each other....

Based on today and definitely tomorrow, spring has already arrived

Nasty back door cold front on gfs in the long range for nyc north

Are you guys serious? It’s just snow. It’ll be ok. FYI I used to be a member here under username rmcwahoo. It snowed a lot at Wintergreen. And lots of people were there for it and documented it. I don’t know how to help ya around that one. Also don’t know why it would bother anyone? Just to drive you even crazier here’s a cool pic from the next morning

If I got 3' fuck it. Torch the rest of winter for all I care. I'll sit back and smoke a cigar and call it a season.

mud season will also be epic.

It appears that the Tuesday wave is going to stay intact, but the problem is the cold air is moving out. The question is how much snow, if any, will we get before it changes to rain. Today's GFS gives us a little front end snow.

It was a nice white Christmas season, starting in late November. Only thing that sucked was actual Christmas was bare. I look at the whole season. It was very front-loaded in the western sub, but it still happened lol.

Absolutely not. One 25-35” storm surrounded by torches and sunshine would be hell on earth. You’re assuming you’d get hit and that’s always far from a guarantee.

There were two periods to this warm up... The first being a contentious argument between winter and spring that begins really Sunday and lasts trough the 9th or so. The second being an implied if not explicit very warm couple of three days between the 10th and the Ides... This 12z GFS is attempting to discontinue the latter of the two as a brand new reconstruction of the continental synopsis by the 10th.

These warm February days make it real easy for me to click out of “winter mode” and start thinking about swinging the sticks.

B+ is my grade. A good mix of colder/warmer wx, and lots of little snows (and some rn). 2 snow events that were very cool. 1st was the LES dump of 6" in 3hrs on 11/29, and of course the blizzard of 2/18 which netted me 18", and shutdown Hwy 61 along the shore from DLH to the border for a good part of the day. Depending on what comes in the next couple weeks could bump it up into the A grade. Winter is not a strict DJF for me, but more like mid-Nov thru mid-March.

Need that high to back off the end of next week for any big warmth. Gonna be hard to scour out if becomes entrenched. 12z gfs nearly kills the entire window with CAD for eastern areas. Euro AI has been doing it too at times.

I say this every year, but I don't grade til April. Its minimal, but March/April does have a slight impact on my grade. It will likely be in A-/B+ territory, and certainly no lower than a B+ I love the endless cold/snowcover as you know, so it was really an excellent winter. No huge storms (biggest mby 6.2", biggest DTW 6.1") and an almost comical no white Christmas (considering the continuous snowcover that began in late November) are the only real mars on the grade. I wouldve liked to kept the snowpack into March but deep winter started unusually early, so wont dock for that. I never count this into grades, but it seemed locally that the models had an atrocious winter performance. There were both rugpulls and last minute surprises. AWSSI still has Detroit in an "extreme" winter. A mild March would likely knock it down to "severe" but no further. https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/AWSSI/chart?stn=DTWthr You can definitely see it was an eastern sub winter. Some random cities rankings to date: Mild- International Falls Moderate- Minneapolis, Des Moines, Quad Cities, Rockford Average- Chicago, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Alpena Severe- Sault Ste Marie, Saginaw, Grand Rapids, Fort Wayne, Toledo, Indianapolis Extreme- Detroit, Flint, Columbus, Dayton, Cleveland

As I get older I'm all about anomalies. As stupid as this sounds, it's a bit deflating to miss it by 10-15 miles. That is the shit we live for. Not 1-3" refreshers over crust.

Sweet!! Love it. Where are they going to be located, if I may ask? Also, gotta find a time to meet for lunch one day and chat meteorology and learn more about the Mesonet program. I was actually shadowed by a student at UMD this past Friday that knows you. She was incredibly bright and has interest in WPC. Small world!!

Fair point-I thought it was aggressive for timing even in a normal winter.

Yea as long as every becs doesnt strike the same area cuz of fast flow, etc…sematt.

Tradeoff I am willing to make TBH...give me a decade of shit winters if we get an event like that.

Well, that April storm was easy to remember because I was 22 at the time and about to graduate from Rutgers. The anticipation for the upcoming snow was intense. The day before, Monday, was in the upper 40's. The storm dumped 9" with frigid temperatures and wind. That arctic airmass brought down a 510 thickness to PA/NJ. With the snow on the ground my low temperature dropped to 16 degrees Wednesday morning and with full sunshine my high stayed below freezing at 31 degrees. Truly a rarity and the largest April snowstorm of my life still to this day. Also, Central Park broke their record lows for both the 6th and the 7th with 21 degrees at midnight going into the 7th, so it caught both days within a few minutes.

12z GFS and CMC. 6z Dr. No is still pretty much a no.

Yup. That’s more water vapor into the atmosphere in a nutshell…

We hit 30 that morning. Much of NC away from the coastal areas were in the 20's on that morning.