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Between Jamaica and Cuba, Melissa got torn apart a bit. Pressure is up to 976, definitely not as healthy as it was yesterday.

Nice 7/10 split on guidance.

Story of the last 12+ months here. Why would it change now?

Two things - one, you are likely seeing a lot shells. Everything inside is shredded and there is no confidence the shell isn't damaged. Two, what isn't / wasn't concrete is gone. So you might be seeing 30% of the pre-existing structures.

So many munks in my buckets this week.

Hello out west! I was out there squirrel hunting yesterday morning. No luck as squirrels are few and far between this year. This is east/central Augusta on the north side of Waynesboro. Late yesterday afternoon. My latest 4 model blend of 12z today is 1.34". Tonight should feature the main event.

Let the cold air be bottled up over there until December.

LOL

Im not as smart as like 98% of you and this is a genuine question…aren’t the 00 and 12 models usually more reliable than the 06 and 18s or am I imagining that?

Once we get some buildup of snow cover and less of a Pac extension, then we can get some colder and wintry weather across CONUS. Until then, I'd expect average to above average temps for most of CONUS.

Come on man...You can't make it that easy for him....

Until we get that snowcover to build up (coupled with the jet extension over north Pacific) mild air will flood CONUS. No wintry weather in the future for CONUS until we get some cooler weather up north or some sort of strong low pressure traversing the nation that can draw down cold air (even that will be difficult as there's no cold air to our north). Warm and mild November incoming. And it's hard for that snow cover to just snap back up and grow rapidly without any cold storms moving across northern tier or Canada

Just eyeballing the SSTs in the IO, it would not surprise me if the IOD goes even more deeply negative on the next weekly update….the western IO is still cooling rapidly, so extremely likely that another record negative number (since 2000) is on the way for next week…..

I agree. Having a normal winter this year would feel like a blockbuster after the last several, which were lackluster seasons.

I'm a big fan of torrential drizzle and under achieving storms. Do you see any chance of this happening or do you think we're locked and loaded with incoming soaking rains? Side note, Fall foliage is great this year. Some real nice colors out there...

I'm absolutely impressed with the buildings in Jamaica. Other than the roofs being blown off and destroyed most of the buildings are completely intact which is really good to see. I have a feeling if their homes weren't made with solid concrete that they would not have survived this well.

This kills me

New12 NJ called for 0.5" generally throughout the state yesterday. I would place my money on that forecast...

Apparently this looks like a ton of snowcover in Canada to our north lol

This band has always frightened me. I would turn the channel whenever they came on Headbangers Ball.

If that happens Again then the model failures in winter have spread into the fall

Very much Agreed. Just give me average…and I’ll be more than happy. You’ll do fine there.