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ya’ll are funny to watch.

Give me a PD3 all snow MECS for the entire forum and you can call it a winter.

Well ..honestly, that bold is unstable and probably one or the other yields... about 90% confident it would be the -NAO... I can't stress this enough.. the NAO is modulated/forced by the wave termination mechanics downstream of the Pacific planetary signal. Not lecturing anyone here ...just sayn', it is not occurring just spontaneously out of random emergence. It is dictated by the former planetary circulation gunk. Such that having that block emerging in the N. Pac ...it's likely it pulls the rug out on the -NAO... It may not entirely... but we probably see something like a neutralizing NAO domain, while the PNAP across the CONUS sort of biases toward a -PNA but fails really be strongly so with any warm dividends one might climo-associated to a -PNA. This is predicated on the N. Pac continuing to manifest, though. We'll see.

Respectfully, if it isn't a big deal to you, then why did you question the accuracy of my station?

Not ignoring that, but didn’t clearly state it. I posted a few times that there’s signs of shuffling….meaning the Pacific getting better. As we get later in the season I just want to see money in the bank….aka a good airmass in Canada to tap into. If blocking persists that’s even better but not sure what to think about that.

It had the strongest signal among the ens runs at 0z.

@The 4 Seasons

CMC has the same general setup but doesn’t have the high placement like GFS so wintry is further north.

A SWFE is an event that is dominated by mid level southwest flow over colder surface air, so an overrunning event. It can transfer to the coast early enough where the mid level lows develop south of us and the winds turn around to easterly or northerly at those levels at which point it’s not a SWFE anymore but those are rare these days. They used to happen in the 2000s and before, some examples are the 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 storms. But we usually have storms now that redevelop too late so we keep southwest flow at the mid levels due to the mid level lows tracking west of us. That causes changes to sleet/rain/dryslot here. Further north in New England they have more time for the low to transfer to the coast and the cold air is deeper with confluence closer by so they stay snow longer or entirely.

after all the complaining of a torch and end of snow threats it's going to be funny if we end up worrying about suppression and a NC snowstorm again.

Maybe not..... This is our year. How many time have we seen long range torches get muted or replaced by cold? Happening a lot this winter as we get closer to verification time. It just wants to be cold in the east.

Yeah that’s later on post-Ides. I have no idea what’s going to happen during that late Feb/early Mar period. If you keep the Atlantic blocking during that period and then try and insert a -EPO, then we could get something exotic.

Maybe I just started paying any attention (likely, was focused on WWAW), but the front runner Tuesday-Wednesday sets the boundary to our south and then we want a decently strong wave to ride along it next Friday-Saturday. That’s a pretty classic order of operations for us.

Gfs AI from best I can tell on pivotal based on qpf and temps has a moderate snowstorm and close to something bigger. .

Based on what was going around on social media I don't know where the idea came really of a "torch" or whatever you want to call it upcoming. I mean we were clearly going to moderate from what we've been experiencing. This is when anomaly maps get tossed around and are used and interpreted incorrectly. We are still in peak climo in terms of temperatures...orange and red shadings on anomaly maps don't necessarily indicate or mean warm...we can still be above average and its still relatively cold or chilly or whatever. The only areas where its clear there will be a significant warmup is within the central Plains. Even those temp anomaly maps from BAM or sham or whoever...+12 to +15 in the upper-Midwest this time of year is still chilly

If I wanted to troll the forum, I would post this: Oh wait... (its an op run 10 days away, so don't take it too seriously)

Interesting look on the Canadian

Yea, I have 3-4 shovels now for different types of snow but not really a great tool for chipping off and moving ice. A coal shovel is an interesting thought and might be perfect.

Don't forget the Kennedy inauguration storm.

Happy birthday to me, I hope.

It's not the Atlantic that you gotta worry about as a spring/early warm enthusiast... Oh it's not helping, sure. But the biggest player is what everyone is either ignoring, or just haven't seen yet because it's bursting onto the ens means ( all three - ) over just the last 6 or so cycles... That's more than eerily similar to the -WPO/-EPO hybrid pattern that locked out late Nov to after Xmas and utterly dictated matters... it's identical. This is also coupled to the ridge showing up in the 100 hPa level in the Strat/Trop monitoring, which also did the same thing back whence and a lot of folks were fooled into believing it was an early season SSW... just like there are those thinking similarly now. But it's not clear to me because it is not, frankly, a true up--> down intrusion/propagating event. This is just a hemispheric shuffle... or re-shuffle... The ideas of a warm post mid month ( as I warned yesterday...) might be in trouble as these patterns repeat over longer periods.

Yeah basically looks like the rest of the season can be written off at this point. First torch is already locked in and after that I'd rather just save the ol' climo luck points for next season

It's not technically an under-measurement if the observer is following the standard that they are supposed too. The problem is that there are different standards for different types of observers. I'll never beat ISP in a big storm unless they rain and I don't because they are supposed to wipe the board every 6 hours and I am not. In the most recent storm, ISP reported 13.2" and I had 11.4". I don't think they had more snow than I did (plus we snowed heavily a little longer before changeover to sleet), but both measurements can be technically correct. I suspect the once in 24 hours max depth standard might be designed to make it easier for observers, plus in some instances (not all) it is a more accurate way to portray the snowfall. Wiping the board more often makes sense for airports because it relates more directly to wiping the snow from runways. It is frustrating that we can't do apples to apples comparisons, especially when doing projects like The 4 Seasons is doing. For my money, snow depth and LE of the snowpack are the best way to compare between sites.

Hope not. All set wasting weeks of peak climo.

12z cmc was a MECS in the making. Still at long range, just good to see