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The precip shield makes it look like one big warm front. Maybe that's all it is for us. Lol

Or some of these meso short ranges to be right lol

Same and the NWS increased their forecast amount for Clarksville :/

Wow I hope the NAM is right. I’d have to up my forecast here to 15-20” easily. That’s a monster QPF bomb.

Kind of surprising pros are bridge jumping over a few early NAM panels?

I really hope we don't have to cut the NAM precip by 1/3rd like we used to!

Honestly if LI/NYC get 10 inches out of this at this point it would be a major win and a great storm. I am not even convinced the immediate NW suburbs are getting 10 inches at this point. I think the NWS is too bullish.

The HRRR is only starting to get to the WAA with its hourly runs now but between 13z hr17/12z hr18 VA got drier.

NAM Derangement Syndrome

And what a front it was. Had a high yesterday of 54. This morning it is 29 with a wind chill in the teens easily.

My low temp was 4 in Marysville. Currently temp is 9 Current dew point is -4 Arctic air is certainly in place.

What a freaking mess! If heavier rates can hold on longer that could be enough to keep the warm layer colder and thus hang onto snow longer.

If anything wouldn't a little IP actually help lock in the pack with latent heat release? Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Deep down I'm hoping y'all pull a November 2018 and the warm nose ends up less pronounced and things stay snow longer.

lol…looks like it’s snowing out of the condensation from the chimney

@CAPEaneed @csnavywx, whats the latest? 2 to 6" of snow, 1" of sleet, 0.25" of freezing rain, followed by rain? Seems like icing impacts could be alleviated by marginal temps and change to rain?

Congrats @Hank Scorpio!!

The RRFS doesn't even look plausible with the precip shield, but it is ~0.4" in DC before the flip.

Yeah there is a reason "Getting NAM'ed" is a legit situation... Can't tell you how many times I got skunked when living down south seeing a Nammer warm nose turn snow to IP and ZR Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Yeah that’s our plan too. Shovel in the AM, let more snow fall, then ice

lol. I mean, are you new here? There’s going to be a dozen people here who base their forecast heavily off the worst possible model run for their BY, despite what the majority compromise may suggest. Lowering expectations to be pleasantly surprised later

I don’t get all the panic over the NAM. Personally, if I get 15 inches of snow and then taint I would consider that a huge win.

okay i'll text you here monday and see who was wrong. I can be wrong im not saying that but im not falling for a crappy model thats getting retired! Yes we will mix with some sleet but that sleet line will drop south immediately once the low pressure starts taking shape off the coast of Jersey

PA thread checking-in 1) Congratulations! 2) My son was born in February and his mom had to be readmitted for infection a few days later. They discharged her during a snow storm (State College) and I had to take a week-old out in the snow on roads that were not at all ideal in a Hyundai Elantra. I had never known nervousness up until that point. I understand your concern more than you know lol. Make them keep you. And then raid the vending machines.

This is my thinking as well