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This has been my idea since Thursday. Since then, my confidence has decreased, not increased. But I’ll let it ride and go down with ship if need be. Meanwhile, I’ll be at the whiskey & chocolate fest in Oaks today picking up storm supplies.

Thank you for this, I was always wondering what the Kuchera algo was, and what it was good for given the many comments. Your synopsis begs the question, why is your preferred approach not available as an algorithmic output? .

Do we even have a nickname for the RRFS yet? Seems we got one for all the others Goofus- GFS King/Dr.No- Euro Reggie- RGEM ICONic- ICON (Looking at you Astronomer) Uncle- UKMET Nammer- NAM (And I personally call the GEM "Ol' Timbits") Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Decent virga on radar down this way keeping me entertained for now lol Forecast start time pushed out to 7-8pm so we'll see how that breaks later. Some areas of TN are overperforming in the snow depth so that's a glimmer of hope but I'm not feeling optimistic about 4" of clean snow anymore. Time will tell. Ice amounts have bumped up in my area as well. I'll keep posting until I lose power and internet lol.

Low of 11 here and -8 at Deep Creek. It’s so nice not sweating high temps today.

We go through this so often. And people cover their eyes and ears beforehand and pretend it didn't happen afterwards. When the NAM shows sleet it sleets. And the extent is usually north of where the 3rd party vendor graphics show it.

Across Chesco I think a solid 7" to 10" (SE to NW) of snow (6" - 8" snow/and 1" to 2" of sleet) with some ZR snizzle at the end. NAM leading the way

So in other words...just bad luck with the track, smh

There’s 7” on the ground here .. if we can add 15-20” and then more on Thursday the pack will be best since 2015

Looks like most all the modeling so far has bumped a bit north so we are now getting into the 1 inch QPF range up here.

It looked like an extremely fine fog but it wasn’t particularly dense. Hmm…I mean I’ve seen us snow in virtually clear air conditions so idk. I’m new to all this so it’s pretty cool learning about what to spot.

Looks like we have major differences between amounts on RAP and NAM compared to HRRR for the Piedmont of NC. Anyone have thoughts on which typically performs better in this scenario?

Thanks! Some of those 2010 storms skunked the Skook if I remember right. As for the blowing and drifting, any place that doesn't taint is going to have problems into Tuesday, I think.

That’s probably about dead nuts on

Zzzzzzz

But this storm is/was fascinating to watch evolve and learn from

As this has an overrunning component to it I sorta expected things to maybe show up a bit ahead of schedule.

If things keep ramping you may need to do a 15-22 or something inland

Looks like definite sleet to me on soundings.

Seems the warm nose is even more pronounced that last night. Would appreciate an explanation from a red tagger or one of our more experienced members how the warm nose at 700 (or 750 - wherever it is) can be so shallow, but project so far out with the uppers and surface remaining cold - especially the surface. Is this a physics thing with fluid dynamics or what?

I am thinking 5 to 8 in NYC, but at this point I will be satisfied with that, especially if the sleet helps it form into a glacier afterwards. . I guess my one worry is that things just keep trending bad until game time and even 5 is not within reach in the urban, coastal core. Hope I am wrong.

More phasing/amplification allows the primary low to track further north with a later transfer to the coast- and the developing coastal low is tucked. Earlier runs were less amped/ w flatter flow, a weaker primary with earlier transfer further south and the coastal low tracking ENE off the coast- this setup spares the area from too much warm air moving in aloft and at the surface in the vicinity of the coastal low. The warming is temporary as the colder air comes back in afterwards.

Watching developments for S OH with trepidation. NAM shows 8-10”. All others GFS, HRRR, RAP, and Euro show in excess of 12” up to 22”. I fear the NAM may be on to something. I hope I’m wrong.

I’ve been mentioning 12/20 for 4 days now over on our discord. It’s in the top 5 of analogs as of yesterday. .

1.6 on Thursday brings me to 19.4 inches for the season. Not bad on snow and pretty darn chilly at times with frequent freshening breezes. Looks as though we have around a general 3 inches on the ground before Sundays event begins