All Activity

It's because they don't know who's measuring tonight. Or better yet not measuring.

Now do the HRRRR

Don't even think anything is reaching the ground east of IPT. There is going to be some QPF lost due to dry air along the leading edge.

This was never going to be anything, and somehow it even failed at that low expectation.

Stopped all rdy dry slotting moving in

It's overshooting the main warm advection snow further and further NE so we deal with subsidence. Just have to see what happens at this point.

West of the spine IMO

Nothing coming down atm, but went to get the mail and there were dippin’ dots on the driveway. 27F/DP 11F

For fun, let's compare the 18z NAM with the NWS for select locations that provide snowfall reports: 18z NAM: NWS Forecast: I will be looking at the other 18z guidance. For now, I still think a general 4"-8" snowfall is likely in and around New York City (including all of the above locations).

The main event! Radar vs the models

There will be a sharp cutoff where 20 miles could be the difference between 6” fluff and 1”-2” arctic sand grains.

Ongoing mix of sleet and freezing rain in Lebanon. Temp down to 28 .

Today’s Euro Weeklies, which are overall fairly similar to yesterday, still have that new +PNA in the means for 1/12-18: This setup continues more strongly into the subsequent week, 1/19-25. than was seen yesterday:

If it means anything, I just watched 10-12 power company trucks head southbound on 206 from Chester. Perhaps gearing up for repairs due to ice accretion south of me?

Unusual for upton they usually low ball .

NJ is a state of emergency all day every day 24 7 365

Keeps reducing to talks to our area but I’ll gladly take the 4.5” verbatim

Today's Euro weeklies for Jan 19-26 have a colder look Equal chances on todays 3-4 Week CPC outlook

Home. Some sleet, temp 28

It's a battle.

I think they use a model called the MBN. I do not have access though.

Maria Carey thick flakes too

Light snow flurries here. Light freezing rain about 30 miles west of Allentown. Looks like the demarcation area between precipitation types is starting to set up as expected.

Thats a bit high, would love to see it, but sort of hard to believe...hope they are right