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Duration and strength of winds also increased a bit.

Such for euro moving south. POS.

Euro and AI look decent. Nam too.

And like the Ravens and Harbaugh...time for the Terps to move on from Locksley, lol I have a feeling that 2026 is gonna be a much better year for all 3 major MD sports

Both NAMs quite wet

h85 and 2m. nothing to worry about !

Atrial flutter

It’s too late, Raindance! I had just posted this at another BB: Those that follow Raindance know he’s well respected due to his pretty good record and very extensive research/detailed presentation. The highlight for the SE and nearby areas is a cold January that’s nearly as cold as Jan of 2025 (mainly 4-5 BN). This is a result of a 40% weighting of each of 2014, the coldest SE Jan since 1986, and the cold 2025.

Left OC around 11 this morning to head back to Winchester for the winter. Was pretty dreary in OC over the past couple of days. Got back to the Shenandoah Valley with sunshine and temps in the low 70's was a beautiful afternoon. Nice to be back home for the winter. Now if we can just keep the Nor'easters rolling for the next few months we will all be happy.

They use the last month as the year. So Dec-Jan 2001 would be 00-01. US Climate division data uses the year for the first month, and those monthly climate maps use the last month.

I don't necessarily expect the cold to show up as severely as it does on those maps. It probably will come in warmer by 1-3F in two of the three months in Jan-Mar, and then as severe as depicted in the other(s). Taken verbatim the weighting would make Jan-Feb as cold almost as both 2014 and 2025 nationally, which is pretty unlikely. I also don't expect the WPO to flood Canada/Alaska with warm air all winter. If models are right the PDO/ENSO should move toward their warmer cycles and you should see a corresponding change in the Northern Hemisphere patterns. The 100-180W heat content at the equator down to 300m got to -1.33 last in Jan 2025 but is trending warmer/weaker this year, so you should see an easier breakdown of whatever the dominant pattern is late winter when the ocean heat content warms rapidly. It went all the way to -0.06 by March 2025. If we top out at -0.8 to -1.0 this year, the flip to 'warmth' that coincides with the surface pattern ENSO flips should happen a lot faster. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

The way that plot is made, doesn’t Dec-Jan 2001 mean Dec 2001-Jan 2002??

Drizzle is so light it’s just a trace so I wouldn’t worry about it not registering more

Probably a bit less precipitation and wind in the valley with the shadowing affect. Overall, not expecting anything overly exciting around here. Probably 1-1.5 inches of rain and 30 mile per hour wind gusts

Increasing consensus that this will be mainly a light to moderate rain chance on the western shore with a heavier footprint on the eastern shore, but still likely to miss out on the worst. The trend the past few nights when doing the QPF was to bring down totals across the Central Mid Atlantic as the evolution would be a detriment to a widespread rainfall as the 5H pattern leads to a disconnect over our area. There will be some rain and some breezy winds, but the heavier precip and stronger wind field forecast from a few days ago has vanished with consensus now in the short term suite. I would imagine it'll still be kind of raw overall, but it won't be a total wash out at this juncture. The only way it could is if the occlusion of the secondary low to the northeast leads to a pinwheel back overhead and gets part of the forum before diminishing and fading out to see on the end of the SLP lifecycle. Tough break, but it'll at least moisten things up a little bit without getting fully skunked.

This pattern for the end of October doesn't look bad, with +PNA and west-based -NAO developing.

Great work Man !

This pattern for the end of October doesn't look bad, with +PNA and west-based -NAO developing. This year has been nothing like 2020-2023 where there was strong -PNA all the time. -PNA periods have been in short periods, and sometimes transition to neutral, or in this case a potential +pna

What do you mean?

2021-22/2005-06 were pretty decent, 1995-1996 was obviously really good, and 2017-18 was generally cold/snowy for the east coast we just got really unlucky that year

It’s moist and wet here. .02”.

SUNY MM5 was a great model

Hmm. BDL might be? I think Logan will have delays, but it will be operational.

^a lot of those +QBO/Ninos are great winters for us. Maybe it’s the difference between the SE and our area. The longwave pattern looks good in the -QBO map (with some small quibbles), but it doesn’t seem to work out for our area too well.

Not sure about this Tempest weather station. I guess drizzle drops aren't heavy enough to register on the hepatic rain gauge. It's been drizzling for over 4 hours here, and it hasn't even measured 1/100 of an inch. I might have to replace it at some point (maybe New Year) with a traditional weather station. Especially since I already know it won't register snow flakes. At least with a traditional tipping bucket, once the snow melts, it measures the liquid equivalent.