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All day snows that start 1st thing in the morning are rare and awesome. Great first storm and hopefully a good omen.

The last 5 years or so most vanished. Prior to that they’d happen . Time to turn the tables

Natural gas is now near $5, which is the highest in nearly 4 years. NG generally is highest in winter when the E US is forecasted to be cold.

Is this more a Mid-Atlantic threat in your opinion or Northeast too?

Should this stay on guidance and happen, I hope it doesn’t switch to rain at the end here in the NNK, that would be disappointing.

The problem is that we need something in the upper atmosphere to turn it up the coast... and just are not seeing that right now.

worst birthday present ever.

I don't think it's a mirage...the setup has the potential for an actual snowstorm. We need the timing of a northern stream wave to change. If it does...and asking for that kind of change at this range is not crazy...the setup is there. That doesn't mean, of course, we will get the changes we need...but I don't think the threat is dead yet. 12z GFS The problem is there is a wave coming across right on top of the potential system as it's entering the TN Valley...suppressing it right at the critical moment for our purposes. If that wave to our north is 12 hours further along...there might be room...if it is 12 hours further behind...it opens the door to a phase in a helpful way instead of a suppressive impact. There are options here that very reasonable changes to this depiction could very easy result in snow for our area. Most of the ingredients we need for a snowstorm are right there...with just one thing we need to get out of the way. I wouldn't give up on it yet.

12z CMC blossoms light snow on Monday similar to 12z GFS. The GFS finally has someone tag along with it for Monday

You could see it a bit through there on the fringes of ENX and GYX for a few hours. Definitely a fun event. Deep winter and Christmas vibe out there right now.

One of the courses I have to do is a climate change course (well I think its an elective but I'm going to take it). Looking forward to that. Haven't read the info on it yet though so not exactly sure what would be covered.

Thing is ( not to be difficult ...great write up!), I'm not sure it was a poorly modeled warm layer? I mean, maybe it was that the layer was not exposed enough in the products we're allow to see? I'm asking because maybe we can back into an excuse for this. Namely, the modeled PTYPEs were excessively wet as opposed to white. That was a bit of a head-scratch when given the low path was S of LI, while also antecedence was so cold in the interior - and actually the coastal plain wasn't exactly warm, either. In other words, something in the ptype algorithms must have been seeing a phase change from white to wet despite those observations above. I remember remarking the day before that a possible compromise might be a lot of freezing rain in a band between HFD and BED ..etc. Nailed that! well... I don't mean to take credit, it's just that both things could be true. Warm layer we weren't aware, because the products didn't expose, but it may have still been there, while the cold llv was poorly handled by guidance and so icing resulting. I will say, didn't see a lot of ZR in the ptype forecasts. It was a really narrow IP band separate all snow and all rain. Almost no IP actually... That was definitely seemingly off to me anyway - so we're right to question the modeled low level temperature change. But because we were hidden from view of warm layer ( maybe...) that led to thinking more snow. Having said all that, as I remarked in the other thread ...there was also a quasi observable tendency to NOT put qualitative precipitation actually WHERE the soundings supported snow. So where it snowed was under performed. May be a separate issue in error to the above points.

Maybe this is the needed sacrifice for mother nature to finally open her legs Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Has he ever been?.

Canadian is a close miss south

All the 12z models have it so far.. looks like 1 to 2 if we get anything.. but we have also seen them before up or disappear

Nah...they'd hit at a tone of climate for modulation and correction aspects, a lot of which is no longer valid because ... heh, the climate (isn't) changing - wah wah wahhhh

I have hated to even say it out loud, but that scenario has been on modeling for days...just a bit to our SE. Now, things are trending a bit northwest. It is a narrow boundary for that to occur and a bit early in the season for the valleys, but I could see places above say 1800' scoring with this.

4.5" here so far.

I don't usually let busts get to me anymore...but that one...yea that one...

@Holston_River_Rambler, I do think the RGEM looks a bit too cold. Time of day is key I "think." For ice in the eastern valley, the cold air has to get trapped. Usually for that to happen, we need a clear sky to start the evening and temps drop. Then cloud cover slides over between 2-4AM and traps the cold air in the valley. I just am not sure. I do think SW VA looks prime for good snow as is SE KY and prob the Plateau if the precip can make it back that far. NE TN is a crap shoot. What interests me is the slp popping to the SE.

Welcome to life as a Philly snow weenie. We're already playing "Not-This-Storm-But-The-Storm-After-The-Next-Storm-Will-Be-Our-Storm" Roulette

Based on what has happened with the Thursday night system, I think the 8-10th one is going to produce some snow from someone along and north of I-40, location in TN, NC, or VA to be determined Trend on the GFS for Thursday night:

Could be a rather long duration Event, combining the 2. Not saying anything like what I'm bringing up is possible this time but, for whatever reason made me think of one of Knoxvilles big, long duration Snowstorm Dec. 3-6 I believe way back in the late 1800's I read about. I think 1873. Would have to look it up. It was nearly 2 Feet ! I've often wondered if it was a product of overrunning or System or multiple Systems.