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The 18z gfs might be over more amped than 12z

Looks like 18z gfs going to be quite amped...shocker.

Guys. This is our moment. After half a decade of hell, we might have something trending our way.

18z gfs deciding to take the low into wv and warm af. It’s on its own island right now.

YOU ALL WILL BE HAPPY ITS GOING TO SNOW A FOOT FOR HARRISBURG BOOK IT

No, lol, That's where PF likes it, We want it to track inside the BM.

Snowing insanely hard now... wooo.hooo

Crazy snow squall up here in Tyrone, PA. Quick quarter to half inch.

Is that the track we want in Maine? Looks like we get brushed with a ok amount on the models.

Sexual Healing?

This kind of feels like one of these patterns where the warm pattern sits at about d13-15 and holds for a while. Models really want to rush through the cold phases of the MJO, and that often ends up being an error. It really looks like it wants to take its time. Modeling was about 7-10 days too fast w/ the cold snap, and likely will be similar when we flip back warm. I mean at some point during a La Nina winter, that trough has to slide into the Mountain West, right? OTH, there is some brainstorming that this pattern is starting to show some Nino tendencies. We do NOT want a La Nada in E TN. Weak ENSO(Nada or Nino) is preferred. The Euro Weeklies look good for most of December. They do show the trough eventually backing West, but that likely happens due to normal pattern cycles as well. Here is the kicker...if that SSW finally works its way into the TPV, that warmup might not be real. There is a risk of a double dip cold snap. Nina climatology(cold December) + early season SSW (cold early and/or mid Jan) is on the table. I do not think modeling even remotely has this pattern modeled well. The -NAO on the 12z suites was prominent. If that deal is real, things could get really squirrelly. I will be really surprised if we don't have something to track very soon.

Since a thread was started, I'll be disappointed if the snowblower isn't needed

Honestly, would be happy with 1-3" to whiten it up, but not getting invested in storms till xmas time Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Looks good from my house

Tracking over PWM.

The Friday afternoon update from the Climate Prediction Center suggests we stay cold and wet until the 26th of December. It's been a while since I've seen them this bullish on cold and wet for an extended period during the winter.

Ha it was in jest as a joke. Personally, I want it over like metro-west of BOS, lol. I feel like it’s my duty as a white walker north of the wall for a comment here and there… but in reality it is nice to see enthusiasm and hope again on the forum. It feels a bit like the old days on here for the past 48 hours or so.

Had the ground whitened here....nice mood setter.

For Dec 1-10: 12Z EPS held onto its 0Z significantly colder temps vs 0Z GEFS. But also, 12Z GEFS came in significantly colder than 0Z GEFS: 0Z GEFS: 12Z GEFS: colder/in EPS direction: 12Z GEPS came in much colder than 0Z GEPS: 0Z GEPS: 12Z GEPS: colder than 0Z GEPS

That’s one helluva band right through ALB airport area.

this whole thing is essentially waa.

Kraft or die.

Icon getting interesting for the coast

Radar looks good, early weenie waa will make or break

Hopefully