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  2. Neblizzard
    Absolutely pouring with intense lightning in Union County NJ
  3. Neblizzard
    Gotta love warm front storms , sometimes they produce the best.
  4. BoulderWX
    1.3” on the day so far.
  5. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1648.html Mesoscale Discussion 1648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern Pennsylvania...eastern West Virginia...northern Virginia...much of Maryland...Delaware...southern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181650Z - 181815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through early-mid afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary concern as storms evolve into eastward-moving clusters and line segments. A watch is likely prior to 18z. DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating of a very moist air mass is ongoing across the discussion area as of 1645z, contributing to moderate/pockets of strong surface-based instability. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage across the higher terrain, and along a north-south confluence zone across southern PA south into northern VA, during the next few hours. As coverage continues to increase and low-level lapse rates steepen, the potential for damaging gusts will increase across the discussion area this afternoon and early evening. Additionally, low-level shear will remain locally enhanced in the vicinity of a warm front across southeast PA/southern NJ. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell structures, and the risk for tornadoes, potentially strong, will be maximized in this area. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch is likely prior to 18z. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 39077931 40007859 40547698 40477526 40267451 39987411 39137439 38627538 38437699 38487839 38647934 39077931 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  6. DDweatherman
    Growing concerned looking at the parameters and sun is beating down nicely at the moment. Lots of little boundaries as well that could enhance some supercells.. assuming development continues upstream.
  7. winterwx21
    Coming down in buckets. This is wonderful.
  8. LakePaste25
    Yeah which makes sense. It lags both from warmth going bottom-up in the tropics via instability/upper level divergence and from planetary scale baroclinity aloft, which seasonally strengthens in late NH summer and early fall as the Arctic cold pool begins to develop.
  9. Modfan2
    7/10 split with the first round in CT?
  10. yoda
    Sounds like leaning towards Tornado Watch
  11. canderson
    Torn warning headed into Bedford
  12. NJwx85
    Tornado warning in Southern PA. Legit supercell. That’s what’s coming here. We just need the last of the crappy convection in NE PA to clear.
  13. psv88
    Flood advisory for Suffolk now.
  14. Storm Clouds
    Putting my new Tempest on a good practice run so far today…it has recorded lightning 375 times, but only .01 of rain. Most of the significant rain went well north and slammed Harrisburg area it looks like. I was on the very edge down here. We’ll see what happens later.
  15. winterwx21
    These storms don't have much wind but WOW, so many very close lightning strikes. Haven't had lightning like this in a long time.
  16. canderson
    .2” or so of rain this morning. Just took out the trash and didn’t smell smoke but you can still see it.
  17. JakkelWx
    90/80
  18. NEG NAO
    This is reminding me of last July 14 - the route 22 corridor got slammed with heavy rain and this storm is heading right up 22
  19. NEG NAO
    Tornado Warning out in PA TOR from KCTP
  20. winterwx21
    Pouring again. Obviously we're gonna get a lot of rain today.
  21. EasternLI
    Another thing I'm curious to see. Do we start seeing recurving typhoons in the pacific more often again? I don't have stats, but I feel like there's been a dearth of those for the past several years at least. I think some of that could be blamed on a lack of any real phase 8 forcing over that time. There's research out there that describes how it manifests itself in the pacific. Which is that the recurving typhoons are an artifact of phase 8 which in turn act to invigorate the Aleutian low. They're one of the driving forces of that feature apparently. There has certainly been a dearth of those over the same time too.
  22. psv88
    Nasty storm here. Winds to about 40, lots of thunder.
  23. SnowtoRain
    93.4/83 sultry
  24. Rainforrest
    Coming a rip snorter here. Hail heavy rain and bad lightning and thunder.
  25. Cyclone-68
    In the past I’ve definitely seen them under a slight risk
  26. NEG NAO
    alot of thunder in the distance
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