All Activity

Seems like it's been 10 years since we had outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the right spot just east of the Dateline. We'll, fwiw, the Euro weeklies say just that. I'd prefer it a touch further east, but this darn close to perfect if memory serves. It should last through the end of the month. Maybe there's a little hope for a score with this, or so I hope. With the burgeoning Niño, maybe we can see this next winter as a fixture?

Philly is literally right on the edge R/S line

Edit to say it’s gonna be a bigtime run for the south coast folks, lots of phasing evident early on. I may not be able to make it up to CT for work Monday morning

Yes, let's get these 2 waves together for Valentines day.

Wow

I'm moving to a place that will benefit from a couple degree warmer climo. Warmer lake, bigger snows. You'll have to come up. We'll sit outside in the snow and discuss the shitty climo down here lol

It does indeed, bet this shows something of implication for the 84 and south folk up your way.

Precip field looks a lot better on nam

Snow up to State College on the NAM

It’s got that look… that feeling

For the last time Chuck we used to be able to get snow in hostile pac regimes. look at this sounding for Westminster while it’s raining. It’s 33-34 in the boundary layer. Cold enough everywhere else. The boundary has warmed 2f since 1970. So explain to me how is the fact it’s 2f warmer not hurting our snow chances tomorrow when it’s 2f too warm? I’m listening. Explain the math to me.

NAM looks a lot more phased through 36h

Someone might get NAMed here depending on temps

I guess I wasn’t paying close enough attention but I wasn’t really expecting light snow today. It’s nothing huge but always welcome. Well, at least until mid to late March when the golf jones starts kicking in.

The surface has warmed on average 2f since 1970 now look at the sounding for Baltimore during the rain and tell me if it makes a difference!!!! its 35 at the surface and all layers are below freezing except the lowest 1000 feet. You think cooling it 2f wouldnt help? Now it’s 33 and only above freezing a very tiny bit. It can snow at 33! It would have still been marginal but…more likely to tip snow v rain. Now what about NW of 95. Look at the sounding for Reisterstown for example. It’s 33-34 in the boundary during the rain. What would 2f colder mean for them? Im tired of this honestly. Sooooo much of our snow came right at or near 32 in the last. It’s ridiculous to claim increasing temps 2f since 1970 or worse 3f since 1950 hasn’t fundamentally hurt our snowfall in a significant way. And the numbers show it. Our snowfall has decreased. There is no logical retort to this. And I’m not talking about human influence. I don’t care. Not having that debate. If you want to claim it’s not human fine. That’s political we don’t have to debate that. But it is warmer. That’s a fact. That’s not political. And it’s asinine to claim somehow it’s warmer but not hurting our snow in marginal temp situations like this.

Seems like a bit of a can kick however with the 19/20 disappearing act

Heh... if we can call the 06z GFS' no event at all as colder, I guess nothing happening is technically 0 thermodynamics, so it would philosophically fit that definition haha Not sure I agree with it yet, still lookin'

Light accumulating snow this morning, 5F

Most times as I'm not a morning guy.

@Ralph Wiggum @Heisy I’m in Philly today and PennDOT has brined for tomorrow lol

Well, the meteorologist can comment but it seems like a set up that isn’t quite so sensitive. The storm is coming from the west and it’s red developing along the coast as a very slow moving Miller B. If they’re still blocking, that would seem to be a good rationale for a crawler. This scenario has been shown on this model for several days and on other models at times I think.

They had 1” yesterday. Not sure on today yet