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We wait until we see the whites of the weenies.

Ironically enough I was going to mention this myself as well. Definitely some similarities.

I would, of course, love for the 18z HRRR to be correct, but it is likely too strong and juiced. It has a 1004 mb low, whereas the globals have a 1008-1012 mb low. This HRRR run would probably finish with 16+" in Cedar Rapids, which I very much doubt. Half of that is more likely. The CAMs will probably come back to earth as the start approaches.

500 mb evolution with this does remind me a good deal of a slightly less impressive version of GHD II. Trough/jet streak matures in a very similar way and the thermos aren't terribly far off from that either. More likely to taper out with eastward extent though.

Meh. After the last 5 years, it would be nice to even be in the game. It’s obviously a flawed setup, but everything is now

He’s not a snow lover and his comments to me are unusual for him so I’m quite hopeful and 12/5 looks good analog wise

It’s a sheared our tilted system, but we’ve seen this before. Doesn’t scream suppression verbatim.

Widespread snow cover over the northern USA coming. We’re looking at 4-8/6-10 here Saturday and New England similar mid week. I’ll miss the New England event but won’t miss the fun here Saturday. Hopefully more in the pipeline next weekend and beyond.

Winter storm watch for the entire GRR CWA. Local P&C showing 8” and still snowing by Sunday. Looks like gusty winds in the 30-40 mph range, so blizzard conditions at times. Still some time for the rug to get yanked but I feel pretty confident in a solid 6-10”+ throughout the sub.

Yes... I agree, the look of vort max and its progged track is not one screaming suppression? At least not yet. Its trend (vort max) moving forward is something to watch closely over the next few runs. Nice to see a post focusing on a forecasting issue.

The 12z Euro trended south and eastward. Overall, was a nice run as was its ensemble.

Nope, I’m not there. I guess that’s better on 12/2 vs 2/2, but I’ve seen this movie before. Might be a little better for you more inland. 33 snow vs 34 snow.

Let’s behold it together (thru noon Saturday)

A sign if intelligence is being able to change your mind.

Hold.

I mean, it wouldn’t be pretty but the euro would work here. I’d roll the dice with that look on 12/2, and so would you.

Yup you called it.

Windsexy AWT

Horny’d.

We lost a lot of good commentary to that board

Till snow falls I believe squat. Models - Scmodels...

HRRR 18z is a beautiful sight to behold.

Could cash in on lake effect bonus Sunday. 12”+ in play.

Happy Thanksgiving H****d! Let’s hope we score.

Today’s trend has been to reverse yesterday’s trend. Yesterday’s we saw guidance come in less phased, less amped and flatter with the main wave…thus, weaker, south and drier. Today’s trend reversed all of that.