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  1. Past hour
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wonder if Summer ridging at 90N is something that reverses long term, "evens out", like ENSO seems to do? We have been in a long, consistent cold period since 2016.
  3. Today
  4. GaWx
    The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall: This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:
  5. Ellinwood
    15/5/2 wind/hail/tor on the 06z Day 1... seems reasonable, but I could see a bump up to 30/5/5 this afternoon (no hatches) once we see how things are actually playing out coverage-wise. More confident with the wind coverage bump up than the tor. Shear's there, but the mid-to-high cloud cover loves messing up our setups.
  6. Torch Tiger
    Friday is next failed severe threat? LFG
  7. GaWx
    The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues to have as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall: This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:
  8. NEG NAO
    Total disagreement amongst the 2 mentioned models
  9. Jebman
    This developing Nino is gonna soak the heck out of the DMV. You guys are gonna get so damned much rain, you are gonnabe SICK of it. Every last weather system coming off the Pac is gonna demolish your region particularly with rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain. I fervently hope Texas gets drowned this summer/fall/winter. I want to see Rt 1626 under lots of muddy waters, with big cedars strewn everywhere!
  10. Jebman
    Watch out tomorrow DMV Region. Could be lots of thunderstorms that will significantly pad your rain totals. This Nino will continue hammering the East/Southeast and South for months to come.
  11. EastCoast NPZ
    It eventually mixed out, but oddly it was much higher here this morning. Maybe there is an issue with the station sensor.
  12. LVblizzard
    Decent severe threat tomorrow as long as the morning clouds and rain get out quick enough. Looks like we’ll get some much needed rain at the very least.
  13. michsnowfreak
    He has "forecasted" 1997-98 for you and looks forward to your suffering. Like i said. Easy as pie. He just goes warmest/least snowy outcome for the east. Without even looking at data that tells me 1997-1998 was the worst strong/super nino of the bunch for the east.
  14. psv88
    84 today
  15. high risk
    The more backed surface winds and therefore better low-level shear do indeed appear to be more likely to our northeast, but the forecast hodographs for the local area on some guidance do suggest a non-zero tornado threat.
  16. winterwx21
    HRRR and NAM3km going nuts tonight, saying some spots could get 4 to 5 inches. Good to see the models beefing it up tonight. Hopefully this won't disappoint.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it may be NDJ.
  18. cyclone77
    Ultra saturated sounding from DVN earlier this evening. Explains why even the drizzle was heavy earlier.
  19. GaWx
    Thanks, Ray. Based on model consensus and even after reducing the avg prog as a BC being that June model run avg has tended to verify too warm, especially Euro, I’m thinking RONI/ONI peaks will likely be at the higher end of your range or warmer. Models are leaning toward an OND peak.
  20. doncat
    Astro spring here was the 2nd warmest in 45 years behind only 2010, also the 2nd driest with 6.75" of precip, only 1995 was drier.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO is glaring there, look at this a -0.6 correlation in Louisiana! That's out of 1.0. I would agree, near normal, El Nino east or west based is usually colder than average there
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Doesn't seem like a real favorable environment for tornadoes tomorrow. Recent HRRR and 00z NAM trying for more low end straight line risk.
  23. Greenwald
    From the scanner it sounds like there's a lot of damage in the Evansville area and Warrick County. Took quite awhile to get a proper warning on that one too.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    3k NAM looked better too. Though severe wise the hodographs look less impressive than this morning. Generally the surface winds are more westerly instead of southern on the latest runs so you don’t get the same amount of directional shear
  25. GaWx
    I’d say well under 85% that it will be warmer than normal in the SE. The better chance imho is for NN there.
  26. Chinook
    PDS tornado warning outside of Evansville, Indiana
  27. dendrite
    Looks like a decent morning too…may be a good time to get fert/compost around the fruit trees.
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