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Maybe a SYR special today? Sucks instability on Friday will be limited because those are some insane dynamics and a vigorous shortwave approaching. Maybe get a risk for some strong storms along the coast where dews could sneak into the lower 60s.

Thanks 1. It being the driest time of year means it isn’t all that unusual. 2. Oct is typically too early for the Nino STJ moisture as that usually doesn’t get going til close to Nov or often not til Nov, itself. That’s what the Euro Werklies are suggesting.

come to think about it ... sudden potent short duration events have also been increasing in frequency every time Gretta sneezes so heh

Friday could be interesting. Wind fields are strong. It's not out of the question there could be some strong winds if tstms form. Instability overall is lacking, but it is a dynamic system. The CAA winds Saturday diminished some. Still could be 40 to maybe near 50mph.

i'm always a little suss about those fast moving cold slicing waves like that. often enough they prove to have been over amplified. but like Scott just noted ... the ambient polar boundary appears to be gradient saturated so maybe this time we'll yo-yo 36 deg spanning 30 hours.

So Philly 0 to 3 but we get 24+?

Clear skies with filtered sun, but a light, misty fog has rolled in. 54F

I dont know if Ive ever seen an ensemble that dry for that long. GFS is practically rainless across the SE for the entire run. Where is our Nino STJ? We got very lucky to get the tropical system, most all the region got at least 1" of rain especially worst drought areas

Tstms near BTV today and snow in nrn ME.

Looks pretty chilly to me.

Thanks man. Long story short, I wasn't doing anything weather related at the time and my team all got let go, so I am looking to get back into it to some degree. In the meantime, I also am going for my CCM (Certified Consultant Meteorologist) certificaltion through the AMS.

Typical short-term temporary drop of 3.4/r3.4 due to the evaporative cooling induced by strong WWBs. Once that settles in a week or two, they should start shooting to the moon again.

I noted those stronger winds in my posts as it was making landfall. You could see it on radar velocity very easily. But this all makes sense now. Pretty cool stuff.

This weekend looks like it will be a tease. Looks mild for at least the next ten days after Saturday. Doubt there is any snowmaking until at least November 1st.

Think will be be above 32. This thing already has moderated some off initial progs

didn't know anything about this place. turning the water off at the lake house Thursday and may need to stop on way home. I never go that far up 106 when coming/going from Jordan's Ice Cream which closed for the season on Sunday!

I didn't realize you've been out of work. Sorry to hear that and good luck on landing something soon.

Snowing at the top of the 'loaf:

Good luck figuring out Simon's track. If you haven't, please check out today's model guidance for the system...

If we have a +QBO, then November (at least the beginning of the month) is going to be very warm in the Eastern US. The last 3 +QBO years (2020, 2022, and 2024) all featured record warmth in the early part of November.

Well this is Belmont NH near LCI around 1k I think, but yeah I hear ya lol.

October 13 1917: Record low temperatures occur across central Minnesota with temperatures ranging from the low to mid teens to the upper teens and lower 20s. St. Cloud records the coldest temperature of 10 degrees, while Mora records a low of 13. 1880: An early blizzard strikes parts of southwest and west central Minnesota. Huge drifts exceeding 20 ft in the Canby area would last until the following spring. 1820: A snowstorm at Ft. Snelling dumps 11 inches. For Tuesday, October 13, 2026 1846 - A great hurricane tracked across Cuba, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The hurricane inflicted major damage along its entire path, which was similar to the path of Hurricane Hazel 108 years later. The hurricane caused great damage at Key West FL, and at Philadelphia PA it was the most destructive storm in thirty years. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1986 - Four tornadoes struck southeastern Virginia late in the night causing three million dollars damage. Tornadoes at Falls Church VA caused a million dollars damage. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders) 1987 - Fifteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 34 degrees at Meridian MS, 28 degrees at Paducah KY, and 26 degrees at Beckley WV. Another surge of arctic air entered the north central U.S. bringing snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A total of forty-three cities in the eastern U.S. and the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV and Marquette MI where the mercury dipped to 18 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Sixteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s and low 90s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast. Evansville IND and North Platte NE reported record highs of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 13 Tue National Train Your Brain Day 13 Tue Ada Lovelace Day 13 Tue Navy Birthday 13 Tue National No Bra Day 13 Tue International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction 13 Tue World Thrombosis Day 13 Tue Breast Cancer Awareness Day 13 Tue Disaster Day 13 Tue International Civility For the Girl Child Day 13 Tue International Day for Failure 13 Tue International Day for Natural Disaster Reduction 13 Tue International Skeptics Day 13 Tue Iris Film Festival 13 Tue National M&M Day 13 Tue National Transfer Money to Your Son Day 13 Tue Herpes Awareness Day

is this true or Bob's BS ? Don't have access to this part of the model output..