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Well there has never been an el nino this strong, and never been such a warm 9 months in the conus. Also LaGuardia didnt dip below 32 in December 2015. So not at all unprecented.

FYI it has never stayed above 32 degrees for the entire month of December in Central Park in recorded history and most years the first freezing temp was before December 20th. So good luck with that prediction.

WPC predicts heavy rain for western sections at 168 hr. balanced. The only possible support is GFS and ICON. What am I missing????

The color up this way is still pretty vivid in some spots but the leaves are quickly saying goodbye. On the whole this was the prettiest foliage I think I've witnessed in my time.

December is going to be a make or break month. If it's a torch then we're probably toast for the winter as a whole. If we can manage one or two events then it probably means we're setting us up for a solid winter and the pattern won't be as hostile. I'm going to set my expectations low and expect another 1997-98.

Squeal like a pig Kenny….

He’s not calling for a big winter . He’s got one decent month in Feb . And not so much for NYC

Jeff is near the moderate/severe border but I'm in moderate. However, the Sandy River is extremely low, meaning in the zero-to-5th percentile range. Carrabassett is in the same category.

Absolutely beautiful Fall colors this season around this area as well!

Does Will come out of hibernation tomorrow?

Just got back from Boston. It was gorgeous there. 40F with snow covered mountains here yikes

Just to be clear, I wasnt aiming that at you. Was at prior posts by some others. I certainly expect less cold/lake snow intrusions than last year. We had snow like 25 days in a row last jan/feb. I think some near the Lake Superior shore might have had 2-3 days total in a 90 day period with no snowflakes. Definitely see less of that this winter. I personally do unfortunately think its a winter of low snowfall totals in the Lakes...but again, low is not no lol. If Marquette managed a winter under 100" the locals would say it was a non winter. For Detroit im guessing around 30"ish for now.

Any thoughts about the PV weakening and reversing circulation, watched an interview with Judah Coen yesterday and was very intriguing was saying November 4th thru the 14th was the timeframe.

I would not be surprised if it does not occur until late December or even January. We have a historic nino on our hands, i bet we struggle to get a sufficiently cold shot in December.

The fall colors are actually solid at this point. Still a ways to go before peak but the maples especially are killing it with low amounts of leaf drop:

Why do it when it's windy Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

So winter cancel? Some of you will eventually eat crow. I believe in Ray.

Yes this talk of cold is hilarious. There is no cold . North America is covered with mild to warm Pacific air . Even a trough brings us AN air

I’m not and never had said places like the lakes and north east mountains we’re in the game for low snow totals. The mid Atlantic coast sure. If you average over 100” the chances of less then 20” are close to zero. It will snow there. My point is without arctic air lake effect is essentially shut off. The Canadian plains are well above normal on the long range models, meaning no cold air source for lake effect. (In the short term) .

Wouldn't the question be how did they do in 2015-16? I mean, im refuting the absurd ideas of a snowless winter; in fact, I actually said multiple times we probably see one big torch month. Marquette 160.9" (dec 18.9") Grand Rapids 61.1" (dec 2.5") Detroit 35.3" (dec 1.3") Even in an all time warm December like 2015, it snowed. Just much less than usual.

Not to mention....1972 and 2015 featured such a dearth of snow up here due to supression during colder intervals, NOT continuously prohibitive warmth. Now we expect a STJ displaced futher to the north as a byproduct of CC, which I think is a net gain up here despite a warmer mean. Christ, give me the keystone event of the season further north if it means the season is +7 instead of +5.

Snapped a Pic today of a straggler butterfly.

Winchester averages more than Leesburg, IAD and Fairfax. Closer to 25. The area around Shawneeland in Frederick County Va averages up over 30 + at 2k.