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You know who is going to see this at some random midnight hour and focus on the "wait" comment and speak to that part as gospel for the pattern being delayed....just watch

Nam looking good with the clipper, more coherent precip shield

I understand science is a bit above your head but whatever

Okay, sure...yes. I agree....slow start doesn't prohibit a good stretch, which I still expect, regardless. I am just referring to the ultimate seasonal total.

You were right about the late November into January cold. No denying that. You were also right about the snowy periods in December, no denying that either. BTW, i never thought there was going to be a torch for one second, however, I did doubt the level of cold and the amount of snow NYC saw this month, true. That said, I vehemently disagree that we are going to see this below normal cold pattern continue through February and March. 5 months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) in a row of below normal cold in this new climate especially? Color me very skeptical. A La Niña hasn’t done that in over 30 years…..since 1995-96 and that was a very atypical Niña, coming off a Nino with a strong +PDO. From the new post on my thoughts in the ENSO thread: “So far, since late November, we have been following a textbook front-loaded canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. They are typically cold in the east from late November through late January before they flip for February. Whether or not this one continues to follow that from here on out or becomes atypical for February and March remains to be seen. We should know where this one is headed within the next 3 weeks. I think it’s going to take a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup (i.e. 2018), to break from the evolution we have been following and not flip come February and March. As of right now, I don’t see another way to avoid the classic La Niña winter footprint we are following other than that (stratosphere)”

Dint talk to me, talk to Tip bro.

Sure enough Carver! It’s been documented not just here but in other places that orographic lift aided by Bays Mtn does this. I’m not sure an industrial plant could actually cause 2in to fall. Either he has no knowledge of the phenomenon and/or he has no knowledge of how orographic lift works. Crazy! Speaking of bands, I noticed earlier that it looked like a second one tried to form in South Knox into Blount Co. I’m not sure about that one. Don’t know that I’ve seen it before. It doesn’t really look like it’s still going, so it could have been something like River effect, Lake effect, steam plant, etc.?

Take what you can get after last few winters.

I don't see why a faster flow is more likely to place the trough axis unfavorably for the east coast relative to any other area of the globe.

Ok, I’m not saying your seasonal total ideas aren’t going to be wrong…but the weather obviously doesn’t care about totals and stats…so I guess my point is at some point things will snap the other way. When that is, is anybody’s guess? But If D. Sutherland is on to something, that would certainly help some. I just don’t see the angst on 12/30. But I also just picked up close to 9” too…so sometimes that helps the outlook too. I guess if you want to be upset, then go right ahead. I feel January will have some fun in store for us.

Windy, cold and some snow flurries feels like winter

correct, and the faster (or slower) flows aloft play a significant role in where ridge/trough axes occur.

Wind gust here last evening of 42mph.

I think it's still dependent on the trough axis, Paul.

Actually that would be incorrect. Fast flow doesn't necessarily inhibit storms from bombing out nor does changes in the size and structure of the Hadley Cell. They just influence the jet stream differently and shift around regions which are favorable for deep cyclogenesis. A faster flow makes it more likely for storms to bomb out farther to our west versus towards the coast and then for storms to bomb out as they move just off the coast towards Atlantic Canada.

This has that feeling of an old fashioned winter that we had growing up in the 70’s. The kind that started early in Nov/ early Dec and by the time you hit Morch you felt like it had been a year since you felt warmth . They used to be constantly cold like this . With no warmth in sight thru Jan.. it really has that vibe. Hopefully the snow follows

GSO got down to at least 21 degrees this morning

I think you are conflating what I am saying, JD.

That isn't meteorology, it simply climatology and arithmetic.

https://x.com/ajuklowpxi/status/2006002289610481752?s=46

That reminds me of the LE band from January 2024 where I got 8 inches and someone got I think 11 in that band. Hope that band thru Wash CO just comes a few miles north. I think there are several on this board right along AGC and Wash Co border who would benefit.

Here is, in my opinion, one of the big pattern keys to keep an eye on. Going to use the GFS as an example. Look at yesterday’s 18z gfs. It cut off the pac energy and retrograded it west under the building epo ridge out west Now, the newer run still building an -EPO ridge, but they’re also bringing that pac energy east which temporarily boosts the SE ridge. If this ends up happening we may have to wait another 7-10 days to let the -EPO work its magic .

Everything in meteorology is negotiable…because it’s the future, and because it’s not an exact science.

That is what it is...I don't change anything. But the numbers don't lie if it doesn't snow soon. Keep in mind I am speaking strictly about the seasonal total...this doesn't mean that there won't bee good storms at all from here on out and/or it will be warm. Not at all.

Does that officially count as an event?