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Im sure yall stay busy on snowbird and the skyway. I thought they contracted that out to Adams?

Yeah, we are toast on this one I'd say, barring some crazy fail of all guidance. Honestly, it's a terrible waste of potential for most of the east. Outside of some light clipper type systems, I think we need to get past the brutal cold this weekend and see if anything can spin up as it relaxes a little bit.

Yeah, I was more focusing on the footprint of the storm, I have to look closely at it to make sure it wasn't the run before lol.

For DC looks like 75% misses 20% smaller hits in the 1-3 range and one bigger hit

I would hold off on the CC-gradient saturation victory laps....I get that was somewhat facetious, but honestly...lots more to be ironed out here.

Considering the atmospheric scenario and the number of moving parts, there's a higher risk for this than usual on a 4 day forecast. I truly wouldn't dismiss any scenario for another 48 hours.

that’s 10:1 ratio. Likely to be closer to 20:1

Maybe it’s the GFS that does something different for 2 of its runs. .

You should know I'm a median lover! Just wasn't out yet. Lock it up

It’s followed the trend of the 12z runs to be lighter and to shift the heaviest precipitation east. But it’s been very consistent. It’s a very fascinating weather model will be curious to see how it does. .

would be something to see a satellite pic that shows every inch of the carolinas in white. the only hole i see is Hilton Head and that looks like a dry slot, so it can happen!

Back during the '96 storm, Philly was dumping so much snow in the Schuylkill that it got blocked up, so they had to dump in the Delaware. There are a few "infamous" pics of that still around. Then a week or two later, the temps went up into the 60s with overruning rain and the Schuykill flood pretty badly. I remember when the water finally went down and I was driving to work along it and you could see the water lines high up on the plowed snow mounds... plus there was a huge tree trunk that got wedged near the top of an arch of one of the stone railroad bridges that goes over the river! That tree trunk was there for months and they eventually did remove it. They have now been using huge "snow melter" trucks to melt the snow - at least downtown. They are doing that today around City Hall. I remember seeing one after I think, the 2010 or 2014 snow.

Im sure yall stay busy on snowbird and the skyway. I thought they contracted that out to Adams?

Gotta love the goofus lol.

I wouldn't think so, but others have noted it and it's AI have been doing that for 6-8 runs in a row.

Remained consistent!

Weather Next is similar to it's 06z run, it has around an inch of snow back to Nashville. Around 2 inches eastern rim/western Plateau, 3+ inches along 75 corridor to the Smokies, and 4+ in NE areas east of 81.

Isn’t the 0z and 12z initiated differently? .

WOW. After ingesting MASSIVE changes in the atmosphere between 12z and 15z, SREF shows this much snow through hour 87, with more on the way

25-50 happens often .. 100 is a little more difficult but at 4 days out with a few minor changes downstream certainly possible

I can't look right now...but might want to take a look at the "median" or 50% map...to see if that snowfall closer to DC is the product of a few crazy outlier runs that have like 20" creating that mean of 2" in the area. We get a lot of false flags where people look at a mean on the EPS and think it's saying we should get some snow when really it's not saying that at all and the snow mean is just a product of big outlier solutions.

It's dwindling. We got our adjustment w/nw but it just wants to dig for oil at this point. Needed a bit more time and space to make it work. The suppression out front didn't help either. There are a multitude of reasons to never trust triple phasers and this just adds to it. Better chance of getting some consolation snow if you're out on the beaches ofc, but will take quite a feat to get it back at this point.

12z WeatherNext 2.0 .

At least it's not popping out commercials every couple of minutes like the super bowl will

Not bad, I want 4"