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US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·7 hours ago · Tornado #49 for PA in 2026:

Although the new RRFS 2.0 is more widespread.

South coast special tomorrow

Thankfully 53. Not really for summer to go. We endless.

The lawn must be frosted at that temp

52/50 .

51 degrees this morning. Been fishing and burning a lot of gas. Have about 10-15 mile run.

"So in a nutshell...the ingredients above are concerning for a narrow band of torrential rainfall and the potential for localized flash flooding. The HREF has probabilities for 6-24 HR precipitation values to exceed 10 year ARI across parts of eastern CT/RI and southeast MA. There are even very low probabilities to exceed 100 year ARI values near the south coast. That being said...whether or not this actually materializes remains uncertain and will depend on the mesoscale. And on top of that...even if it occurs trying to determine the specific location is still beyond the state of the science. But we do know this risk will hinge on the potential for where a mesoscale low tracks...which would setup an area of enhanced low level convergence for the southerly LLJ to impinge upon" Stein!

Northern California has been the place to be so far for cool fall weather.

46° coldest since June 2nd.

42.5° definitely under guidance HIE 32 and SLK 31

The endless summer has ended. Currently 31.6

I’m not very hopeful based on this morning’s models, but maybe we get lucky.

Should be ok unless you are flying Amazon Prime Air.

WPC kept the slight risk for heavy rainfall right through the 95 corridor. Still seems like the metro corridor could be a relative minimum based on much of the guidance and the eastern shore would get more?

Quite a spread. I"m flying to PVD from BWI tomorrow morning......i wonder if there will be any issues.

I wouldn't say that any of the forecasts that I looked at this morning exuded much confidence. None of the cams in Bobby's video develop the Sunday afternoon convection that the nws mentions in their forecast discussion. However, it did show some early AM showers with a secondary cold front. His video was released a few hours before the last nws forecast, discussion update. Sunday's afternoon, convection/rain may still have been a little bit outside the cams wheelhouse if they really even have one. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Excessive rain outlook areas adjusted for today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A dry start to the day, but moderate to perhaps heavy rain expected later today into early Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry start to the day, but moderate to perhaps heavy rain expected later today into early Sunday. Expect showers and storms to form later this afternoon into Sunday morning, as warm advection brings back the more humid airmass. This will be followed by more showers and storms later Sunday afternoon and evening, as stronger dynamics and cold front work on the humid airmass. Not a lot cold advection, abnormally warm and moist air take aim at the Great Lakes area again on Tuesday, as a strong upper level ridge builds northward from the TN Vly. ERO for today adjusted to one area, and SPC outlook for Sunday trimmed across the southeast. Complex fcst, as been the case this summer. Still holding off on a flood watch for now, given nothing going on yet on radar, still time to see how things play out later this aft. More information below. Guidance does put numerous heavy bands of rain over the area. FFG lower west and north, but heaviest QPF could be to the east. Also maybe things more an issue later Sunday, depending on where that rain falls today. Again, the problem is: where? With uncertainty high as it is and FFG getting higher slowly, still holding off. As mentioned in the Nws forecasts discussion, Spc has trimmed back the marginal risk for Sunday. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html