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Looking at the HGR records that go back to 1899 this has been the worst 4 year stretch ( maybe 5 year stretch soon) since they've been keeping records. First time HGR has gone 4 seasons straight with less than 20" of snow. Northern MD and the I-81 corridor compared to average has been the worst spot in the region for several years now lol

Hopefully one of those deals after this weekend is wintry. We certainly walk the line.

I think next winter the models will be re-programmed with the reality that it doesn't snow in Wake County.

Long range GFS & Euro Op runs are starting to entertain the idea of a Valentine/PD weekend Winter storm chance, just like their AI versions have shown over the last couple of days at times.

I'm not saying it's a warm-sector with all rain...but it's probably a mess for SNE.

Back broken for arctic cold after this weekend.

The problem is h5 looks quite a bit different on current ens guidance for that period compared to a 3-4 days ago. The developing NE Pac Nina ridge is stronger and we end up with a largely mild Pacific air mass for the mid month period. Not much cold around as currently advertised. Still subject to change ofc given we are 10 days out. As usual, we just cant know yet.

Yup.

fwiw, go check out the 6z gfs. Blizz was callin that period out the other day, and verbatim its a good one. 9z and 6z had it.

You know shit is bad when LR thread doesn’t have more than one page overnight. Doo doo pattern relaxation, doo doo storm tracks, doo doo next two weeks

Same in Marysville

Yea, this weekend into the onset of early next week concludes the utility of the 2015 analog...that is coming to an end.

Very light snow in Pen-Mar. 23 degrees.

The PV split help to send all the cold into Asia. We may have a -NAO but battle +EPO for awhile. Some signs it may change later in the month.

It should be AN for awhile.

He posts regularly on Facebook.

"There was a watershed moment for Australian energy transition this week as the Australian Energy Market Operator released its energy dynamics report for the December quarter of 2025: Renewables comprised more than half of energy supply in the quarter, driving down wholesale electricity prices by nearly half. Coal-fired generation was down 4.6% year on year, falling to an all-time quarterly low. Gas-fired generation plunged 27% to its lowest level for 25 years." https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2026/01/29/turning-point-renewables-surge-to-50-of-supply-wholesale-power-prices-plunge-grid-resilient-to-heatwaves/

Why is this disappointing?

add manheim to the list of mood flakage.

Ewww

General idea here in Triad area at moment.

Clouds moving in already, so not sure how much warming we can swing.

Picked up more snow early this morning than the whole month of January produced lol. Picked up 1.8" from a narrow heavy band of snow. Little or now snow accumulation was in the forecast until a late evening last sec update.

latest HRRR tossing out some ZR for afternoon evening, in east TN locations in the freezer this AM: Manages to squeeze out 0.30" in east Knox county:

Definitely seeing most models back off a bit this morning. Still a decent threat north of the VA border. A dusting to half an inch possible North of 85 and may include the Triangle if everything goes right