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First post of the season for me since there hasn't been a season to speak of until now! With all the hype online of this upcoming potential Winter Storm, it's time to dive in and start posting model runs! 06Z Euro. Using Kuchera since this has it snowing in single digit temps on the Euro. Will post all the 12Z runs soon!

Maybe one of the worst head fakes(here) was snowmageddon. All those pretty 30" clown maps moved to DC. Well, the worst headfake was CLT area forecast to get 3-4' right up to and during the storm....not even sure the grass got covered. So yes, I want the synoptics right before jumping on board fully. I don't like that the Baja low has a different iteration w/ each run. I don't know which camp is gonna be right about the high which will likely roll into the northern Plains. Is it 1040-1042 or is it 1050+? Definitely important things still to sort out...

i would go with the ai models until proven wrong. They had the weekend storm right

https://x.com/_jwall/status/2013273456691868076?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^2013273456691868076|twgr^|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=

GFS might be more suppressive than EURO, based on that map. Confluence is further south.

Ended up with 4.2”, same as the official ORH site. A solid event on top of 2” the prior day. It really is a winter wonderland.

a really strong and big storm could poke through the cold high especially if the high isn't north of us, in this case the high is actually trailing from our northwest. the storm has to be a big one though like January 26th 2016

Do you think LI sees single digits? My noaa forecast has me down to 6 Saturday night

That's a fair point. I would say it's probably more of a gradient in that respect, and separating them into two different categories is likely an overgeneralization. Thanks for pointing it out!

I think if you look at the ensembles from the Euro and GFS they are pretty much in agreement with each other at this point as far as snowfall totals go. Once we get in the 48-hour range, I would almost bet whatever the EPS shows you can about take it to the bank.

What a horrible coaching hire, 40% winning percentage. 1/3 league no coach. Still hurts lions shit the bed but rooting for Broncos. Surprised Johnson didn't go for 2 at end of game.

Yeah. I would lean 80% it’s wagons way south right now. Hopefully the AI has a clue.

He said for inland North Carolina north, there is no question that the precipitation will be frozen. It will be really cold to ensure this is a frozen event. Obviously, the big question is what form of frozen precipitation will predominate.

Most important run of the GFS so far for 2026 running. Big difference I'm looking for is around the hour 100 mark with the handling of shortwave over the Pac NW that either cuts off our southern stream energy or kicks/phases it eastward. The 6z difference in Euro vs GFS shows it nicely. GFS on top Euro on bottom.

Meriden, CT btw

Not to be a nit-picker, but I don't think it's accurate to say those are the only two possible outcomes for this system - not at these lead times. Like you, I obviously hope the AI models have the right idea - and the ensemble support across the whole range of models provides good reason for optimism. The next 24 hours should be pretty telling. Not that we'll have things nailed down, per se, but we should have a much firmer grasp about how realistic this threat is (and for whom).

Hey boys, beautiful out there! I had 1” Saturday, 2” Sunday AM, another 2” Sunday PM. Nice snowy weekend

I just don't know at this point.

As someone who lived in Philly for many years, I think you should be getting pretty excited about this storm. You know it’ll probably trend north at least some extent, but not enough to hurt you guys. For us in NH we’re probably on the northern fringe, but these things do tend to come north. I grew up just south of Dover and if I lived there right now, I’d be very excited.

I've received about 9" in the last week with a nice snow shower this morning. Breezy with temps in the upper teens. Whitened everything up for that deep winter feel. I allllmost left for New York this morning to chase what promises to be a very intense LES band but decided to stay local. I hope this weekend's storm comes to some sort of fruition as a consolation prize.

Skeptical is the right thing to be imo. But I don’t know if saying suppression is likely today is accurate. It’s certainly possible, but likely might be premature on Monday here. If the confluence/cold strengthens even more going forward, then obviously it won’t get up here. If this is a Saturday deal, I’ll miss it anyway(I’ll be sledding). If it’s more of a Sunday deal I might catch it. But that’s neither here nor there. It’ll be interesting to see how it goes over his week.

About 1.5" last night. Not even 10" yet on the season. The last three years I was over 30" by now.

5" on Saturday, 1" overnight through Sunday AM, 3.5" last night through this morning.

(for those that don't know) falcons fan^

I certainly hope Mike is onto something, but i'm never confident 4+ days out. I guess that's just me and 40+ years of following these things.