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  2. SnowenOutThere
    My take on today. Made before the Dulles sounding, but I doubt that changes too much from the parameters shown on mesoanalysis.
  3. vortex95
    I share your skepticism, b/c so many fails this summer. But past performance does not....
  4. IronTy
    Stay safe.
  5. wxmeddler
  6. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  7. MANDA
    Associated discussion and Flash Flood Watch was also lifted slightly north and NW from earlier this morning.
  8. dailylurker
    I'm trying to finish a job in Crofton and I'm getting nailed with heavy rain. It's a small shower but it's heavy.
  9. batmanbrad
    CSU-MLP latest had the best TOR chances between Baltimore and Philly
  10. yoda
    The 18z sounding should be very interesting
  11. GaWx
    The average 3.4 SSTa adjusted for GW has leaned significantly toward La Niña the last 20 years with an avg anomaly of -0.3C.
  12. dailylurker
    Raining and cloudy in Crofton. I've seen this one before lol
  13. chubbs
    Here's Zeke H latest forecasts (updated daily). An August record is almost guaranteed, while a record for 2026 is currently a coin flip. Monthly and yearly record odds have both been increasing as the month continues to run warm. https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global
  14. vortex95
    I know the event has yet to unfold, but recall a few days go, someone asked "is this it for svr for awhile for the region? And look at the DY3 outlook from 8/18 (attached). Now? 5% tor risk hatched? So it shows how things that do not look so good 3+ days out, can turn around, and sometimes big. The fine mesoscale details are everything, and sometimes it is only apparent that day hours before, or sometimes in real-time (June 5, 2024 comes to mind). May 3, 1999 epic OK tor outbreak. It was clear as mud as to the extent of that event. Morning outlook had SLGHT, upgraded to MDT by 1630z, and the 20z outlook when HIGH. The issue that day was lots of clouds and enough diurnal heating for storm to fire in the first place. And it was not synoptically-evident big tor outbreak day. And yet the result was the biggest single day OK tor outbreak for total tors (66) on record, and some monsters that revealed some amazing data from the DOWs. June 29.,2012 derecho here. That morning it was SLGHT, and by the aftn update, it was upgrade to HIGH as it was apparent the derecho in the OH Valley was taking on a life of its own, and again a historic event. The above are the exceptions, not the rule, but it shows how we can still be "surprised." And that uncertainty still exists today, despite all our advances.
  15. weatherbo
    Cool nights/dry weather can't help but notice.
  16. H2O
    12:58 it got sunny. I missed it by 6 fcking minutes
  17. GaWx
    1. Yes 2. I went from the beautiful Estes Park to Rock Cut (where I walked a bit) and then turned around. On the way back at Forest Canyon, I walked the entire paved path and checked out all of the amazing views. I also stopped at most of the pullovers on each side going and coming back. On the way down, I walked a short dirt path to a beautiful meadow with a tiny stream surrounded by wildflowers. Very peaceful with nobody nearby! (I can’t post because pics are way too large for the attachment limits here.) I spent a total of ~3 hours inside the park. 2. Thanks! Next time I may try Old Fall River Road. How does it compare to TRR safety wise? Even though I loved driving TRR and was very careful, I admit slight feelings of danger on the many parts with a steep drop right off the edge! @mayjawintastawm
  18. AlexD1990
    Seabreeze crappy thunderstorms firing up over my area
  19. wxmeddler
    I didn't expect the 5% or the # for that matter.
  20. mattie g
    That makes sense. I agree that sod scratches that need for satisfaction, but I’d like to try to make it work with seeding it. Just need to keep the dog off of it!
  21. MN Transplant
    0.03” overnight and 0.07” in the noon hour. Really racking it up now.
  22. mgerb
    Noon Excessive Rainfall probs increased to the moderate range for PHL/NYC metro.
  23. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon into this evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible late today into tonight with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin. Scattered damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Deep South this afternoon into the early evening. ...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic... Radar mosaic late this morning showed a couple of weak convectively related vorticity maxima moving east across the central and southern Appalachians (i.e., southwest PA, eastern KY). One of these lead disturbances was sampled by the WSR-88D VAD at Jackson, KY, with an upstream shortwave trough over the OH Valley moving towards the Mid-Atlantic states. The airmass across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas will continue to heat amid patchy but thinning cloud cover. Model guidance shows moderate buoyancy developing by early to mid afternoon from the southern Appalachians northward into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. A belt of stronger 700-500 mb westerly flow (30-45 kt) will overspread the northern half of VA northward into PA/NJ. Beneath this stronger flow, southerly low-level flow veering and strengthening with height will support hodographs favorable for organized severe storms, including supercells and organized line segments. The latest model guidance shows a few simulated supercells developing in the area centered over MD and the upper Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the 20-00z timeframe. This scenario seems plausible given some low-level enlargement to the hodograph and effective shear around 40 kt. A tendency for upscale growth into a line segment is expected as this activity moves east towards the coast during the evening. A couple of supercell tornadoes are possible with this activity, in addition to a line-embedded mesovortex and scattered damaging gusts.
  24. Brian D
    Charted NOAA data for July. Easier to see what it looks like. Will put out Aug next month when data updates.
  25. vortex95
    It seems just E of I95 and just S and SE of the metro is always "in play!" The way I approach it now is, "is the area between a line from DCA and IAD and about 15 mi to the N in play b/c this area seems most variable and gets the shaft, relatively speaking, more often that not. Probably due to the location from things like downslope from the Appalachians, but it seems very dependent on the mean flow. W and WNW seems to be not good often (DC split), but of course, this is just a broad view. Subtle differences in the mesoscale can be huge.
  26. yoda
    Oh... um hello there CIG 1 hatching
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