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  2. Met1985
    That severe drought should be eroding away quickly.
  3. vortex95
    Tropical sounding. Lapse rates all below 5.5 C/km, but that's ok b/c the deep layer high dew points make up for it, and just a small amount of heating sets things off. That's why the convective temp is so low, as noted. K-index 38 and PWAT 2.16", so there is your juice! 0-6 km shear 31 kt so close to support supercells. Low-level turning on the hodograph not bad either.
  4. George001
    Yeah it will be warm. The question is more the magnitude of the warmth as that will make a big difference in terms of how much of the precip is wet vs white. There is a big difference between say +2 AN and +5-6 AN.
  5. frd
    May not be huge rains, but the signals are there for continued active weather in our area. Even at day 6/7 from the WPC along with machine learning severe threats.
  6. CoastalWx
    Let’s skip the lakes region and get Seymour another 4”.
  7. GaWx
    Chris, The following is a better way to look at how 1997-8 did: using the more appropriate/well centered climo base of 1981-2010 instead of 1961-90, which is earlier than 1997-8. Using the earlier, colder 1961-90 makes 1997-8 anomalies ~1F warmer than they actually were in many areas as you know vs the available best centered climo of 1981-2010: still mild in NE but not as mild and SE NN:
  8. MJO812
    This will not be a cold winter ( definitely the first half ) we have to see how fast the EL nino weakens.
  9. MJO812
    September is also early. Check back in November.
  10. dendrite
    Hope the HR^3 is right
  11. Rainforrest
    Picked up 3.37” last night.
  12. bluewave
    Yeah, there weren’t any cold winters in the East with super El Niños relative to the climatology at the time.
  13. snowman19
    He’s from Philly, so yes. I would love for him to let us know which super El Niño winters (Dec-Mar) since 1970 were cold in the PHL-NYC-BOS corridor. Strong doesn’t count. I’ll wait…. @PhiEaglesfan712
  14. A-L-E-K
  15. snowfan
    Its gross outside.
  16. Birds~69
    79F/DP 71F at 9:40am Another sign Fall is on the way is someone had lawn chairs down by the curb for trash pick up. Probably old/broke and they will pick up new ones on clearance in a few weeks for next year. Smart move. Anyhow, we need some refreshing air (DP 50s)...
  17. Kmlwx
    Everything "feels" juiced today. At least for heavy rain. Was driving from Odenton back to my folk's house in Colesville and it started lightly raining and I wasn't even under any returns on the LWX radar.
  18. GaWx
    I assume you’re referring specifically to the NE US as the first 3 winters weren’t warm in the SE. They were pretty close to normal there.
  19. wxdude64
    Yep, a completely different world up there. Glad you had a great trip, as someone else said, just gotta keep a watch out for the 'sliders' on the ground and whatnot.
  20. Met1985
    I just read where Mt. Airy East just got hammered yesterday. Radar estimates of over 10 inches.
  21. snowman19
    Which super El Niños were cold winters (Dec-Mar)? 72-73: warm, 82-83: warm, 97-98: warm, 15-16: warm *PHL-NYC-BOS corridor. Strong doesn’t count*
  22. wxdude64
    About a tenth overnight, about that much since the 7 am report. MUGGY, MUGGY, MUGGY! 71.2/70.0 currently with light rain at 9:30 am.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    The 12z sounding from IAD seems pretty juiced. Nearly saturated atmosphere all the way up. I think the most interesting thing is how convective temp is only 81 degrees.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I will always point out that the coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century was during a strong la nina. Strong/super el ninos generally mean warmth, but not always. It's too early to tell whether this upcoming winter is going to be warm, but if the models are still showing a cold signal in September, then people need to accept that it will probably be colder (and possibly snowier) winter.
  25. bluewave
  26. Mount Joy Snowman
    Low of only 73 to go along with .01” of rain.
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