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I ended up with 4.3” of rainfall this month, which is slightly above normal. But I’ve gotten none since Oct 11th, which was from a feeder band with thunderstorms that woke me ~7AM from the influence of Isaias’ remnants and which was just ahead of a cold front. I got a total of 1.6” from Isaias Oct 9-11th. The wx especially early this week and last week with comfy dewpoints and sunshine was great for outdoor activities. Due to the combo of persistent breezy NE winds most of this week and the full moon early this week, there was coastal flooding near times of high tide Oct 25th-29th despite sunny wx (“King Tides”).

From Spann: SSW/POLAR VORTEX: I have been getting many questions about last night's post here about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in progress. Let's clarify in plain English... Twenty miles above the North Pole, a river of wind circles the Arctic — a fence keeping the coldest air on Earth bottled up over the pole. Next week, that fence collapses — earlier than ever recorded. The air high above the pole warms sharply in days (that's the "sudden stratospheric warming"), the circling winds reverse, and down comes the fence. All 50 European forecast scenarios show it by November 12; the record is November 28. What it means for Alabama — and what it doesn't: *It does NOT mean cold arrives next week. The next two weeks stay mild. *It DOES raise the odds of real cold later. With the fence down, Arctic air can spill south in the weeks that follow — for us, the window is Thanksgiving into December. *The wildcard: a super El Niño brings a wet, busy storm track here. Cold air meeting that moisture is the December combination to watch. Bottom line: no hype, no snow forecast — just better-than-normal odds that December brings cold. I get the idea our weather will be pretty interesting over the next 4-6 months. Stay tuned.

Miller A ?

Yup, and this Nino is doing exactly what is expected. The Super Nino composites for depth on Mansfield are not in any way encouraging, ha. Some bottom barrel seasons.

This guy "Northeast Wx Alert" on FB has been pushing big cold for the NEUS this winter all along, and as soon as the models shows it cold in the long range, he jumps all over it and says things such as "as I was saying" w/ endless patting himself on the back. See the post below. What is funny is that is a 10-day fcst, and he acts like he always "wins" here, when it hasn't even happened yet! Classic weasel fcst statement: "This is precisely the possibility I have been dissing." Using "precise" and "possibility" in the same sentence when talking about a 10-day fcst??? Well, that the problem with this guy, he is *always* talking about the long range and what *might* happen, never the short range or what *is* happening. Never talks about verification of his forecasts, just always hedging and wording things in generic and vague terms w/ about as classic word salad as you can get that is verbose that says nothing, or nothing anyone could not say and have no skills in forecasting, just good w/ the word hustle! I've called him out several times in the past w/ reasonable and valid statements about his style and wording, and of course, all the defensive, and he eventually blocked me. That's tell-tale sign of a hustler/poser or someone who is closed-minded and about ME ME ME! They block you when they know they are cornered and can't rebut/retort from valid statements that give sold criticism. He talks about blocking and the -NAO. Just b/c it gets cold in the NEUS does not mean there is blocking and a -NAO. In such a strong El Nino pattern, the STJ dominates and things are very progressive, so Greenland blocking is largely absent. There is blocking, but it is in central Canada, not the same thing for CONUS sensible wx!

Weather becoming increasingly jackety.

Wednesday, November 11 2026 8:28AM EST Fifteen years to the day of an unusual early season snowstorm for parts of the region and, especially, the northeastern US, another early shot of winter weather will affect the region today. Moderate rain continues to overspread the region from southwest to northeast. Temps have fallen into the upper 30s to lower 40s from north to south. As the shortwave approaches from the west lift will increase making the rain become heavy at times by this afternoon. By this time some sleet and snow may start mixing in with the rain across northern MD. However, by the late afternoon hours rain will rapidly change over to a heavy wet snow from west to east as the main shortwave moves over the region maximizing lift. Most areas should be all snow for a duration of 5 to 8 hours with the longer “all snow” times north and west and the shorter times south and east. With the strong dynamics of this system along with ample lift and even a small amount of elevated instability, snowfall rates will peak in the 3 to 4 inch per hour range with localized bands reaching 5”/hr. This will completely snarl any Wednesday evening traffic and widespread power outages will result from the weight of the heavy, wet snow on trees and powerlines. Adding to the power issue, winds will pick up as the surface low deepens rapidly this evening with gusts reaching the 30 to 40 mph range. Although visibilities will remain below a quarter mile for the duration of the snow event, have opted to not issue any Blizzard warnings as winds should stay just below blizzard criteria. Snowfall should depart the region by midnight with snow totals of generally 1 to 2 feet with higher drifts. For the remainder of the work week temps will remain moderately-below to well-below normal with low 40s for highs and mid/upper 20s for lows. ...

Looks like historic warmth for much of the month

Last year record early depth on Mansfield. I was optimistic for the winter, but @CoastalWx did he typical, "good for them, but NNE is irrelevant to me!" And then look what happened for the winter! "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" several times for his vista outside his home in Weymouth!

It reminds me when the MSM says, "super warming in Antarctica when temps 50 F above avg! Sounds crazy, right? But when your avg temps are so ridiculously cold, even +50 F is still cold. Vostok's mean month temp ranges from a high of -32 F to a low of -67 F. So do the math! Also, in the polar regions, wild above and below temps are much more common here merely due to its climate. And in typically clueless or disingenuous fashion, I have seen some take a temp anomalies in deg C, and forget to subtract 32 from it for the F equivalent. In other words, 30 C then will be temps 86 F above avg! Anything to push the hot narrative.

A perfect Halloween evening. Crisp but not cold.

And one less hour of diurnal heating! Seriously, I see that in the spring when chase season ramps up...one extra hour of heating! I'd like to say it just trolls or engagement bait, but not always.

@CoastalWx needs to be reminded that in very strong El Nino winters, the only real cold air shots for the CONUS are in the Northeast!

You'd be the one squealing. I got the bow

How about "Downeaster?" as in Alexa!

"Weaker Super Ninos". Average snowfall at BUF airport is 95.4", my call is for around 50". 2015-2016 had 55.1"

Quite consistent pattern w/ very strong El Nino. The biggest temp anomalies are usually in the Upper MS Vly/Nrn Plains and that's is what this shows well here. All on track. That what the MSM and others do not get. Sure, this type is El Nino is not common, but 1) just b/c something is not common or rare does not mean it is abnormal, 2) very strong El Nino in itself occurs naturally. and 3) the sensible wx that results from it in regions across the globe are completely what is to be expected given other El Ninos like this. This a major problem these days w/ how things are communicated. Everything is pushed as NOT usual or typical simply b/c it has societal and environment impact. As if there should never be any or not times it is worse than others? Has the ATLC HU season been severely suppressed? Yes, Pacific HU season very active? Yes. STJ showing dominance? Yes. Big rains srn Cali and Desert SW? Yes. Miller A tendencies E Coast? Yes. I see narrative pushed that due to warming, the wx is becoming more "unforecastable" or "uncertain." Noting could be further from the truth! And this notion that El Nino gets "worse" w/ warming. So why in the last 30 years, base conditions have become more La Nina? See attachment. I was thinking it may be AMO connected, but it was more El Nino base 1950-1969 when we were still in the favorable AMO phase for big ATLC HUs, and since 1995 that same AMO phase for ATLC HUs has existed, yet more base La Nina, so any direct correlations do not work here.

that's me

Winter thoughts https://www.facebook.com/share/1N3iXRz76y/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Thoughts on winter https://www.facebook.com/share/1N3iXRz76y/?mibextid=wwXIfr

forky ? As always ……

Six photos from the New York Botanical Garden where the annual Chrysanthemum show opened today: