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Nice to see the cmc and gfs keeping the Northeast cool going forward

Nice to see the cmc and gfs keeping the Northeast cool going forward

I really didn't know these severe days had this many reports. You might say that this is a lot of tornadoes on 3/15. A lot of (perhaps, brief,) QLCS tornadoes were added to the storm reports in the last couple of days

Cloudy here. Snow is hanging on away from trees and buildings.

SN+ outside & March madness on the tv.

Unreal for March at that elevation!

I scroll right past…honestly, who has time to read that?

Looking at the bigger picture of what's causing these massive high pressure systems (which we've seen happen repeatedly the last ~6 months or so) and the extreme high temperatures and high temperatures, I'd be interested in ideas about when or if this pattern might break down. It seems we're just stuck in it indefinitely, but at some point things HAVE to change, right? What I read is that a weak La Nina has been in place (now fading) and has resulted in a persistent western high pressure ridge being placed perhaps further east than 'normal'. But have we not seen similar patterns many times before that didn't result in such extremes? It seems like we're in uncharted territory now - with the possible exception of the Dust Bowl years which obviously none of us were around to experience . Thanks in advance for your thoughts....

If we could get some real sun here…it would be excellent. Mostly cloudy is killing the temp. 52 degrees.

Here is the February to March 19th (every about 5 days) TAO look. We will be having the WWB take place over 130-140E and progress E. You can see what the last one was able to do back in mid February. Very slow rotation going on but could be one heck of a WWB if this holds. Be mindful the zonal wind anomalies shown are not always what reality equates to but more so movement is the key strength will vary along the way.

This is the time of year where I wish I could have a place near CVG for 6 weeks lol.

We shall see I do wonder that with this being so far north in comparison to the past few super El Nino events, this seems to have a bullseye around roughly 5N. Will we follow similar paths to those events or create a new way we have yet to see (something similar to what Stormchaserchuck showed in earlier pages) and would we actually remove the heat basin? In comparison to the last 4 super Nino events in ~50 years.

Public Information Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 512 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...NWS Damage Survey for 03/15/2026 Tornado Event - Update #4... .Update...Date/time correction. .Overview...Middle Tennessee was impacted by a strong storm system that brought widespread strong to severe thunderstorms during the evening and overnight hours of March 15, 2026. Storms produced damaging straight-line winds, isolated large hail, and three tornadoes. Strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts also occurred during that afternoon. A sharp cold front led to a drastic drop in temperatures the morning of March 16 which also brought accumulating snowfall to the Cumberland Plateau. ..Ft. Campbell EF0... Rating: EF0 Estimated Peak Wind: 75 mph Path Length /statute/: 5.05 miles Path Width /maximum/: 200 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 03/15/2026 Start Time: 09:35 PM CDT Start Location: 4 SSE Fort Campbell North / Montgomery County / KY Start Lat/Lon: 36.5999 / -87.4486 End Date: 03/15/2026 End Time: 09:40 PM CDT End Location: 3 ESE Oak Grove / Montgomery County / KY End Lat/Lon: 36.6407 / -87.378 Survey Summary: A weak tornado impacted portions of Clarksville. The tornado began in a neighborhood on Fort Campbell. Damage consisted of shingles off the roofs as well as some small tree limbs snapped. The tornado continued east toward Highway 41, where an overhang structure was blown down at a car wash. The tornado then moved northeast through additional neighborhoods and across Outlaw Airfield. Damage in the neighborhoods included rotten trees downed, tree branches snapped, downed fences, shingles blown off roofs, and occasional vinyl siding and metal metal fascia. The tornado crossed Outlaw Field and uprooted a few trees on a farm just northeast of the airfield. The tornado then continued northeast into a large residential neighborhood causing additional minor structural and roof damage to several homes and snapping small tree limbs. The tornado dissipated somewhere near the TN/KY state line in an open field south of Interstate 24 as no additional damage was found north of Allen Rd. ..Mt. Pleasant/Columbia EF1... Rating: EF1 Estimated Peak Wind: 90 mph Path Length /statute/: 16.53 miles Path Width /maximum/: 500 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 03/15/2026 Start Time: 10:06 PM CDT Start Location: 1 NNE Mount Pleasant / Maury County / TN Start Lat/Lon: 35.5591 / -87.1848 End Date: 03/15/2026 End Time: 10:25 PM CDT End Location: 3 SSW Spring Hill / Maury County / TN End Lat/Lon: 35.6966 / -86.9494 Survey Summary: The tornado began along Highway 43 in Mount Pleasant. Many trees were uprooted or had broken limbs along the highway and interstate. A few homes and barns had metal roofing blown off.The tornado continued northeast into Columbia, impacting neighborhoods and Columbia State Community College. Tree damage was noted frequently. Structural damage to homes was also noted, mainly to vinyl siding, shingles, and metal fascia. There was one building on Columbia State Community College that sustained roof damage, as well as fencing on the ball fields. Next in the damage path was an industrial area along the Duck River. Many trees were uprooted, snapped, or sustained many broken branches. Several buildings lost metal roofing, and one larger metal building system had a portion of the south facing wall caved in.The tornado then moved back into residential areas, causing occasional trees down or branches broken, shingle damage, and damage to vinyl siding. The tornado ended along Green Mills Road in northern Maury County, just prior to reaching Spring Hill. .Lexington/Bonnertown EF1... Rating: EF1 Estimated Peak Wind: 105 mph Path Length /statute/: 14.57 miles Path Width /maximum/: 400 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 03/15/2026 Start Time: 10:48 PM CDT Start Location: 1 W Lexington / Lauderdale County / AL Start Lat/Lon: 34.9671 / -87.3831 End Date: 03/15/2026 End Time: 11:04 PM CDT End Location: 1 E Minor Hill / Giles County / TN End Lat/Lon: 35.0368 / -87.1486 Survey Summary: A storm survey team determined that a tornado touched down in an open field west of Earnest Street and south of Highway 4 in Lexington. As it approached Earnest Street, it caused an open outdoor structure propped up on cinder blocks to slide to the north as well as snapped 4x4s and uprooted trees. The tornado tracked northeast toward Lexington City Hall and caused minor roof damage to five structures. Continuing northeast, the tornado uprooted numerous trees along Highway 64 before crossing highway 59. Along the way, multiple trees were snapped, homes had siding damage, several small open structures collapsed, and a garage door was blown in. It continued snapping and uprooting trees as it approached the state line.The tornado crossed the Tennessee/Alabama state line and moved northeast, continuing for 10 more miles in Tennessee. In Bonnertown, many residences were impacted, with several homes damaged. A few manufactured homes were moved off their piers, and a couple mobile homes were lofted or slid, remaining in tact. Other structural damage included missing awnings, removed shingles, carports thrown, and trees falling onto the structures. Several farm outbuildings were damaged. Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted. Beyond Bonnertown, the tornado continued east along Appleton Road, downing trees and destroying a chicken farm. As the tornado crossed into Giles County, damage was mostly trees downed or uprooted, and branches snapped. A few structures were impacted in Giles County south to southwest of Minor Hill due to trees falling. A few metal farm outbuildings were also collapsed. The tornado ended quickly south-southeast of Minor Hill.

If only we could get that to the East Coast...

Just your run of the mill +40ºF departure in the central part of the US this weekend. Looks more like 6/21 than 3/21

Was hoping the models would change with time but i reckon they arent.There was some signs the MJO would reappear into Africa but this seems to be nothing but a Rossby wave,Then the next few days another Rossby Wave will seemingly destroy the MJO signal into the WH. Oh well,enjoy the dry 20-25 AN temps this weekend,good weekend to go out and do things. By the map Vol posted seems reasonable to me,the ridge out west has to move east and its not going to happen for several days by the ensembles.

Solidly moderate snow here. Next few hours will be critical. So far…no temp issues.

Something interesting went on with the NAM overnight. It seems to have been 'swapped out' for a warm result. The FOUS grids in this kind lee side polar air have been struggling to get above +2. Out of no where they are all popped to +6 to +10 in the T1 layer. Today is the Equinox, so if the switch to the summer algorithms is true it's as good a date as any to flip. Man, it is spectacular nape day. 53 full sun zip wind.

The 10th Anniversary of the Dead River Flood 23 years ago, worst case scenario.

I’m still not sure what to expect. Models keep printing very heavy precip rates. Like 3 hours of 0.1”< QPF snowfall and like 0.60” in 4 hours this afternoon.

Not to the Fairbanks extreme for, like, mid-January, but pretty darned cold for March. FAI is currently sitting at -15.5° for March. The previous coldest March was -6.6°. The next week will be warmer, with an average around 0, but they should still wind up around -10 for the month, which will easily be their coldest month on record. And that was after their coldest December since 1980, and cold Jan and Feb, so their DJFM will be anomalies of -19, -6, -7 and -20. Plus a lot of snow, they were already above average and Feb dropped 39" (their average is 10"). They should be in the top 10 years with >30" of snow depth (48 days as of yesterday) Pretty deep winter up there. ANC has been warmer until this month, but got 40" of snow in January and this month is running a -15 anomaly. While FAI had one day above average (by like 0.1°) ANC is at like 34 days below average and will add to that for the foreseeable future (they're not progged above freezing for at least a week, and should be at ~ the third longest such streak). And down in Juneau the story is more the snow. 82" in a -12 Dec (depth of 50") which was gone by Jan 15 after a week of rain, but 28" in Feb and 52" so far this month and they're sitting at 184" for the year, 10" off the record, and they should be close by the end of next week. This guy's feed is a pretty good compendium of how cold it has been up there this winter. (Things like "Juneau has had more snow than Fairbanks and Anchorage combined, and both of them are above their averages.")

It's like 'Chuck NoMorris'

That’s what I was thinking too….it may take a historic ENSO event to finally flip the unrelenting, stagnant Pacific. It’s been over 20 years (1997-98) since we’ve had a true, “super”, east-based/East Pacific El Niño. I guess the ‘we’re due’ argument would fit here, since 2015-16 was a basin-wide event, not east-based/EP

Me too!

They didn't bury him 6 feet under, the world moved 6 feet up.