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Daised and confused?

Is this gonna be a wet pavement deal where it’s sleet/ mix or is it gonna be a mess? Plowable snow overnight tomorrow or something that can be melted off with salt? Trying to plan for a crew

GFS probably hasn't ingested the latest moon phase data. Once it does....it's over.

So that means the amped solutions are not reliable.

Could the GFS score a coup on this one, maybe, but it really just is a woeful model. The GFS holding on to a solution for run after run only to cave to other guidance in the short term is almost always what occurs. The verification scores show everything you need to know: The Euro, CMC (can't believe I'm saying that) and the Ukmet consistently outperform the GFS. Again, could the GFS be correct in this case, sure, but overall it is just not a serious model.

Moon angle might be deadly

I remember the 1 euro run for a day and we didn’t have QPF

Pretty sure this was written before every model caved to it. .

It does get exhausting, the thousands of international tourists coming and every one of them asking one thing: how do I get to the middle of nowhere in northern Connecticut, I've heard so much about it.

I’m actually wondering if the 00 runs just all come in like that… Maybe not that ferocious but you know full commitment

No new moon until March 18. But that’s the next storm. #1993vibes .

Nam is looking sharp so far. Still early

Some flags MHT south for me…dry air aloft and sim radar has that shredded look quickly after 00z. Wonder if it goes from steady snow to heavy showery junky frozen precip after a couple hours.

Either way I like the idea of only 2X/day I wonder how others feel about that. Maybe just the have the high res stuff run 4X/day. I kinda miss when the Euro only ran twice per day. The only main global that was running four times was the GFS. Now it's everything even the Canadian and UK run 4 times now in short range

Home...not even drunk. NAM look shaper with the northern stream so far

0z NBM & NBM Para both show Warning level snow potential in the LSV.

Bump

Sharper Trof and a little more stream interaction on the NAM through 39

Pulling for you all. I’ll be stuck in Ohio all week, so I’ll miss this one. I think we know one way or the other by 12z tomorrow.

Looked a bit colder down your way too, 4mb stronger with the slp then 18z sliding under SNE.

Surely the fact that we are all a bunch of hysterical loons isn't part of any good policy analysis. More information is more information. We might not be able to resist the allure of overreaction, but surely a professional just waits and looks at a few runs, and the information is more current, and the effect is the same. I mean, I've seen people on here saying why hasn't box done x y or z, when their information doesn't match, and they are clearly just waiting for more info to confirm, rather than oversteering.

Reflection off the moon. Unless it's a New Moon, then we're in business.

Blinding.

The sun is pretty strong at night