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Not good, but I do find GFS MOS is ok, better than the NAM MOS of the time. NAM does do better in CAD situations though. But the RRFS is coming, much to @CoastalWx's dismay! LOL. Which reminds me, does MOS exist in any form for the HRRR/ECMWF and other models?

The deepening rate of the storm was incredible. BOS recorded min pressure of 965 mb. I think 955 mb is the record non-TC pressure for New England, set at BID 3/7/1932. Bliz of 93 peaked at 960 mb over Mid-Atlantic and filled a bit to 963 once over SNE.

DCA averages 14" per winter. GYDLH! If you thought the 4 years leading up to Jan 2026 were hell? You have no idea. Didn't bother me at all. I long ago "got my fill." After the 1992-93 to 1996-97 period? I recall saying after the Bliz of 97, "I will *never* complain about a crappy snow winter ever again!" That how impressed I was w/ that blizzard as it hit all the high notes for an absolute classic (meteorologically and otherwise),. @CoastalWx I would have thought at least he'd take some cues from that, given how he proudly likes to show off that selfie of himself standing proud in Hyde Park that next day! And then i recall he could not stopping talking about PD2 and the Bliz of 05 (I was shown the BOX radar loop from that more times than I needed to at work!). But really, what should have sealed the deal for him and "excised all demons?" The megablitz Jan-Feb 2015. Hands down. A truly exceptional event/period, and he lived and and loved it, as many others did. Not that you can't still enjoy a big snowstorm and weenie out, but take them as they come, and avoid getting upset when things are inactive. @CoastalWx is old enough to recall how lousy the 80s and early 90s were for snow in SNE. He even had to wait longer than I did b/c he got STIFFED royally in Brockton in the Dec 11-12, 1992 blockbuster while I relished in 18" in Woburn!

^ Should get some 500mb effect in the N. Pacific if that forecast verifies for early Oct

Lol!

Working overnights...I need something to keep me awake!

The hype on social media is ridiculous. Krakatoa's current eruption is *minor* overall. You get a bunch of these sized eruptions every year across the globe. Nothing to see here. "Oh, but Krakatoa is famous!" Yes, it is, but that does not mean it will do it again. Typical clickbait using familiarity as a draw. It erupted significantly larger than this in late 2018 and generated a significant tsunami, and still nothing of consequence globally. And not all eruptions are the same. You need a significant amount of SO2 for cooling. So you can have a VEI-5 (minimal for any sig global impacts) and not get much. Hunga-Tonga actually warmed the globe w/ a distinct delayed temp spike in 2023-24 as it ejected an enormous amount of WV into the stratosphere, which is normally very dry.

Yeah, and the warmista GFS just can't give up forecasting more 90's in our future. I'll sell that.

Oh, the Tide is gonna turn, allright. This record Nino has the DMV in its sights. This record-strength, record-east based Nino's moisture Plume is also aimed directly at the Mid Atlantic. That STJ will be roided up! Yeah man, The Tide is definitely gonna turn. A HELL of a lot. You may end up with lower triple digits of inches of rain by Dec 30. You will still have months more of the rain. Might want to build elevated paths over your yard, lol. Or just go ahead and pull the trigger and build an Ark. Tie the lines to your house's Deck. Might even go ahead and build your Ark out kind of like a kind of miniature Royal Caribbean type ship!!!! Man I LOVE ROYAL CARIBBEAN SO MUCH! Heck I might even fly out there and kick back on your Ark and enjoy the rain. Texas is gonnabe high and DRY for this one. Ha ha we are waaaaaaaay too far west for this one. Maybe I will still be around for the super Nino in the later 2040s lol. Maybe that one will be west-based and will give Texas record rains.

The cansips has a cold bias so it will almost always get the colder Winters. It had 0 to +2 in the Rockies and some places finished +10

I still think there will be life in the Atlantic eventually. But it’s going to be a while and the windows will be narrow—geographically and time wise.

0.07...sick of this crap ..

I was all set for some food storm activity here in Eastern Durham County today. Watching football and the radar and it all looked great. Sky was getting dark to my Northwest and said to myself yeah this is our turn. Went outside and the outflow boundary kicked in big time, winds whipping and It felt great sitting on the back porch. Clouds still look nice and dark, radar looked good. Then it happened. As soon as the bulk of the storm decided to shift a tad NE of me and the line split and died when it got here and wound up with .01" here today. So everyday this week has been a shutout until today with a most nice looking radar line and kapoof. So I feel your pain Wake county peeps. It isn't any better here in eastern Durham county. Western Durham county/city gets the rain though. The shield lives on. Looking forward to a nice comfortatable day tomorrow well Sunday here.

Dam 1.18 since last night - most of it today - wild... On top of 0.64 two days ago.... Had no events over 0.46 since June and now 2 in 3 days - first 1 inch event since late May... It really had been that dry here...

We dont do very well in MId Tn with a strong NINO,Just as well you mention the QBO,which could lead into a strong SPV.Maybe this winter has its own analogs,just as well you mention the solar and no active volcanoes to add to that as well,meh

81 today. 68 now.

Thing is, just as it likely overdoing the NAO, it could also be overdoing the EPO is we don't pop as large of a GOA as it indicates....which is possible given the residual cool ENSO residue.

@cyclone77 and I going to start the race to double digits snow thread in late February.