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AQI up near 1000 around Duluth

They thought it stood for Gulf of Europe...

Slight risk Saturday. Guess it depends how much clearing we get and heating ahead of the energy and way too many unknowns. ZCZC SPCSWODY3 ALL ACUS03 KWNS 160734 SPC AC 160734 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours before moving southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic overnight. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... The CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central Plains for much of the past week will have retrograded west by Saturday and be located across the US and Canadian Rockies. Strong mid-level westerlies will persist on the ridge's northwest, north, and northeast periphery. Embedded within the westerlies, a series of short-wave troughs and smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the start of the forecast period, the main short-wave trough will be located across central Ontario, with its associated jet streak located across the Upper Midwest. This feature will dig southeast on Saturday, ending up in the vicinity of northern New England by Sunday morning. Ahead of this main wave, the 20260716/00 UTC guidance suite shows multiple speed/vorticity maxima moving through the west-northwesterly flow, each of which will be capable of aiding the development of scattered elevated thunderstorms. At the surface, a weak surface low should develop Saturday morning across southern Ontario/the northern Great Lakes. This low will slowly deepen during the day as it digs southeast, reaching upstate New York by evening. Ahead of the surface low, southwesterly low-level flow will transport a very moist airmass northeast into the Lower Great lakes, with 70F surface dewpoints possible as far northeast as western New York. To the southwest of the surface low, a surface cold front will serve as an initiating boundary for thunderstorms during the afternoon. An unstable and strongly sheared airmass will be in place by later afternoon across Ohio northeast into western New York. As thunderstorms initiate along the front, large hail will be possible before thunderstorm outflows eventually congeal into one or more linear clusters posing a threat for damaging winds. This line of storms will push south and east during the evening and overnight with a continued threat of strong, damaging thunderstorm winds. Farther southeast across the Mid-Atlantic, most model guidance indicates the development of a surface trough to the east of the Appalachians during the late afternoon. To the east of this trough axis, temperatures will warm into the 90Fs, although there is some uncertainty how far north the hot boundary layer will extend. Given the presence of this surface trough and strong diurnal heating, several clusters of thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon, especially if any of the previously discussed vorticity/speed maxima can interact with the low-level trough. Strong, damaging winds will be possible with any thunderstorm complex during the afternoon. Additional severe potential will also exist overnight as the remnants of the convection along the cold front approaches the region. Gusty thunderstorm winds will be the likely threat with these storms. ..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

ensembles and OP's are showing a stalled out front situation towards the end of the month. right now it stalls slightly off shore with several waves of LP riding along the front. A lot of times the models are too progressive pushing fronts through this time of the year so could be something to watch. Almost all of the ensembles have prolific rain totals just offshore but would not take much for that parade of lows to come inland. Regardless, it looks much more active again beginning this weekend. It's funny, I went away for 2 weeks and before I left it was hot and dry then we had all that rain while I was gone and nothing since I've been back home. Starting to feel rain cursed lol

Been using it. Better than nothing but not great. Sky is hazy here. Faint smoke smell to the air but nothing horrendous. Air quality is poor but still no smoke visible at the surface in my area. Out my way this still trails 2023 by a big margin. Still nasty though.

Maybe it got hit by an asteroid or an alien spaceship

Looks like GOES 18 is being used as a fallback? https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/operations/goes/status.html https://usradioguy.com/news/goes-19-in-safe-hold/

Something similar actually happened yesterday over Pennsylvania too, the fires sharpen the thermal gradient and can increase both the coverage and area and intensity of storms over a local swath. Yeah, models did not pick up on this at all, and it didn't become apparent until maybe midday Tuesday. I suppose if that was the case, it would've led to subsidence elsewhere, maybe farther north.

Did the Trump admin finally just shoot down GOES ?

He should crack the window of his cruiser

That CFS graph is referring to relative 3.4 anomalies, which are currently in the +1.3 to +1.5 region rather than ~+2.0. Actually, the official relative 3.4 for last week was only +1.3: 08JUL2026 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.5 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt The CFS latest 10 day mean prog has a whopping +2.3 for relative 3.4 in August! August will be a really big test to see if the progged record breaking Nino is still on track as that would require a near 1C rise from July:

Since GOES-EAST is down, you could use GOES-WEST, though it's not ideal since we're near the edge of the disc image, so images appear blurry but its better than nothing. The colored image distinguishes between cloud types. Smoke is green, blue and red are clouds

73 this morning. 85 currently.

A little hazy but wish we had some smoke! We dry

Unlike the very mild Feb 1878 in the upper Midwest, the E US’ warmest month of that winter was the fairly typical El Niño warmest Dec. In contrast, Feb was only modestly AN in a good portion of the NE to NN in the SE. Jan was NN to BN. Jan-Feb combined in much of the E US wasn’t mild at all and instead was largely NN (no more than slightly AN in the NE and even BN in good part of SE).

Haha yeah. Can put the band name above it, name of the album below

Air Quality Indexes are off the charts in the upper mid west. Higher than 2023, The extreme readings are knocking on the door of Buffalo. Hopefully it doesn't reach here and without that satellight working, we won't know for sure.

Daily Cfs2 plume charts are updated daily and hyperlinked to this site; past half way down. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

Album cover vibes.

Hard to know with satellite down but looking at obs back to the Great Lakes I'd say using pre 1960s forecasting that the worst smoke will go S and W of here

In my experience down there in 2015-16, when it decides to rain there it goes totally bonkers. May 2015 was the most rain I've seen in my life in Austin. I guess the closest match would be August 2010 up here but I think May 2015 was worse. The heaviest rain I've ever seen was Oct 2015 when the remnants of Patricia came through. It was literally like watching a firehose outside.

I was just looking at that stuff... According to CPC most recent power point, yet the present NINO 3.4. regional anomalies ( found here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 ) are already floating around +2.00 C. So, either their CFSv2 product is less accurate as a predictive use ( by over a whole deg C ), or... Climate Reanalyzer's data is suss. I don't really care to get into that ..per se, I'm really just more interested in general with the comparison between monitoring vs modeling: where are we?