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Fast pacific flow keeps the northern stream active and outpacing the southern stream. And in a La Nina, the STJ is quite inactive anyway. Combining those two together leads to a "dry begets dry" pattern. So we get the cold (it's real and it's coming) but it's a cold and dry regime like 2025. Both winters very inactive for the vast majority of the US. This does not look to change any time soon.

Being near the left entrance region of the jet streak is favorable for us, and I would not be surprised to see some good trends at the surface as we get closer

This is how I feel. I'm not big on nickel and diming with clippers. If it's going to snow, then I want it to be a worthwhile storm.

The 18th is gone because the 16th slips away. Very cold after, but looks like high and dry until the 23rd or so and then we get another chance. But it always feels like we are "one chance away." And the amount of times since 2020 that I've heard, "2013-2014 gradient pattern setting up" or "this looks like a big pattern change like 2015"is nauseating. It's never happened since then. And it won't

Thin coating of ice this morning with a T of snow too. Looking forward to an inch or two of snow Thurs. Then bitter wx arrives.

I don't disagree, but at least publicly, realizing it's not necessarily honesty, players seem to like him. I don't think there's any way they can justify keeping him as OC. That bridge was burned this season. If he gets demoted back to passing game coordinator, it's a compromise. But the passing game has never been great during his tenure. That said, the offense was never built for prolific passing statistics, either, being run-first plus possession, so it's kind of a wash. Correlation vs. causation is hard to determine. Eagles definitely need to draft one, I agree. Calcaterra is a terrible blocker, so I don't love the idea of going into next season with him as #1, and I kind of don't like how the team keeps overusing him in running formations given how poorly he executes. For those reasons I'd prefer if the team moved on from him. If the coaches could use him more responsibly as a receiver, I wouldn't care. Dallas is also degrading as a blocker, so either way the Eagles need a true or more capable blocking TE.

What 20th threat ? Looks OTS

A long way from far northern Maine here, but snowfall/pack season-to-date are very close to average. My lament is the continued mega-meh that we've had for the past 20 months. This month's temps have been Jekyll-Hyde so far - first 6 days were 9.7 BN, 7-12 have been 10.3 AN. Today-tomorrow will run +15-20 before things cool down to only 5° AN.

To be pedantic, it's not really overrunning since there's no warm air advection and no warm air aloft. The northern stream is squashing any warm air from the gulf but also squashing moisture

It's like if we're not gonna get a meaningful snowfall with this cold, we might as well move along to spring. But I know that won't happen. Hopefully there's hope down the road. Time will tell. And the only can kicking that will be taking place will be in Harrisburg. Canderson's trash cans after a 50mph wind gust on trash day.

That epic pattern was locked in for weeks. No one saw the intensity but many of us knew it was about as good as it gets modeling wise. The Jan 15 thread shows that

January 13 1916: The high temperature in the Twin Cities only reaches a frigid -14 degrees.

The 20th would have a colder antecedent airmass, so that would be preferable over the 18th anyway. Not that we have the luxury of preferences.

12z ICON has a worse outcome than the 00z ICON for our area on Sunday but the system looks a lot more like an actual storm now. Imagine it trended better at h5 but it's the ICON so not that interested in digging in lol

Long range RGEM backing the flow a little bit before one of the weekend's short waves. I'll post another pic when the prettier maps come out.

And less than 2.75” of snow?

There certainly is a bit of a feelin of "here we go again" starting to settle in; however, IF, and it's a big if, if we can get the southern stream open up later this month, I like our chances. This is an antsy time on this forum because there's enough showing on indices to keep positive people optimistic about future chances, but we're seeing enough can-kicking right now to feed the negative folks with enough sauce to start complaining. Even over the past couple of years when we were stuck in an overall unfavorable pattern, we got enough good looks that were advertised to be coming but either never did show up or if they did, did not produce. So now when the good looks get pushed back again, the I told you so comments start flying. A few weeks ago many thought that most of January would be rocking, today's sentiment is we're looking at the last week of the month into mid February. I really do see and empathize with both sides/viewpoints. I think there's enough showing to be optimistic and I think there's been enough can-kicking that it's natural to be skeptical.

I wouldn't totally throw in the towel on the 20th yet...it's still a week out and we've seen some swings with the evolution of that shortwave digging in around that period. It's really not that far off from producing something. I would give this another 3 days or so before totally writing it off. And beyond that, with that Arctic front as advertised...there will almost certainly be some significant winter weather produced by that...we just have to hope we end up in the spot. There is no way to definitively lean one way or another right now so all we can do is assess

We all get it…we got the cold and now the moisture is hard to find. Shit happens. It’s frustrating, but we have the heart of the season coming up, so the moisture could come as the EPS is showing currently. Hope so.

I mean better hope something goes right from the 20th on, it’s precarious anyway in SNE being a gradient set up with haves and have nots.

Let’s do it! Sey-Less snow or “Sey-Mour snow than Methuen”

I caught that..thank you .

Yep, several weeks left in January.

Lmao…and if they did(which they won’t), the water would freeze before it hit the fire/ground. Epic disasters incoming.