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  2. high risk
    Massive win.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    You can really see it in the SOI over the last 30 years. We are breaking it hard now however, but if the N. Pacific Hadley Cell was +SOI driven it should be reversing around now and that has not happened yet but it is mid-warm season Streak of the last 30 years really makes the current -26 30-day that much more impressive. I think I calculated something like 72% of months were +SOI since 1998.
  4. MarcmmKU
    The wet paste low ratio dense snow is the prettiest looking. It clings to everything and whitens everything up better.
  5. WxUSAF
    Yeah smell is much reduced. Could see 1 star in the sky
  6. LakePaste25
    The lack of H5 over the central equatorial pacific does indicate a skew towards La Niña the last 20-30 years, which could also be contributing. I don’t have the research handy, but climate models argue that more frequent La Niña will not be the case long term. Possibly a temporarily aberration the past couple of decades. We are probably due for a major decadal regression the other way. Not necessarily right now, but it could happen eventually.
  7. kdxken
    Damage in Tolland? I'll post it in DIT format.
  8. jm1220
    Orangey tint to the crescent moon tonight. Still some smoke up there.
  9. Avdave
    Definitely a hot one today. got to a high of 101.2* at 15:34. Heat Index had to be around 115* or so. Looks like some good chances of rain the next few days.
  10. nw baltimore wx
    It still looks smoky, and the purple air numbers are still solidly high, but on my walk this evening, all I smell is weed. Kind of normal.
  11. Brian D
    Just a light haze now, but sooo nice having the windows open.
  12. kgottwald
    Automatic sprinklers going, spraying the sidewalk in front of an office building in Merrifield. Complete waste of water, and renders the sidewalk impassible. Does anyone really give a good goddamn if the grass next to the sidewalk is green or brown? I want a nationwide ban on watering anything that isn't A. cash crops, B. subsistence crops, or C. animal fodder. If you don't like seeing brown grass, then tear it out and plant cactus and creosote. FFS.
  13. high risk
    I fully agree that any storms tomorrow afternoon that form have real severe potential. I don't see smoke being a major factor in our area; HRRR shows most of the smoke (both at the surface and in the column) retreating to the northeast. It warms us up to 95! I think you're on the right track with the warm mid-level temps hurting us, and the mean flow somewhat perpendicular to the lee trough also argues for more scattered coverage.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will definitely be interesting to see how it progresses through the rest of this year with Super Nino! Battle of forces! If the PDO holds neutral or negative through the Winter it's probably going back to negative after this year. I don't intuitively feel like we will see a lot of -500mb in the North Pacific this year, but I could be wrong!
  15. EasternLI
    Actually, I think that makes a lot of sense. As the long term trend of the H3 PDO had been signaling something similar. The biggest question IMO, is do we see a change going into the 2030's. Mixed feelings on that.
  16. high risk
    That's not true. Other than some air quality models, the RAP and HRRR are the only standard forecasting models that explicitly account for smoke.
  17. SACRUS
  18. raindancewx
    The PDO should continue to erratically weaken with this event toward neutral. You probably will see it move slightly positive in a few months from Oct-May, but on net I still expect it to be about neutral. I've always found if PDO & Nino 1.2 are opposite states in October, that's when you start to see rapid regression of the PDO toward Nino 1.2. But the movement toward the 1.2 state is sort of dependent on far out 1.2 is from local averages and the PDO baseline. 1.2 is where water below the surface comes up and fills into the rest of the ocean which changes the dynamics in the North Pacific eventually. With more storminess in the North in fall-spring, its harder to change what areas of water are warmer/colder than average from sunlight/high pressure (almost no sunlight in Fall-Spring in the North, especially if stormy), so at that point you're seeing current driven changes. With only ~8 hours of day light at 50N in winter, relatively rapid fluctuations in SSTs v. means have to be tied to storminess/current changes. Globally, July SSTs look like a 1972/1991/2023 blend to me, with 2015 in there weakly too. 1997 had a very positive +PDO already by July, as did 2014. 2015 had so much warm water in the N. Pacific that is sort of mechanically forced the PDO negative by making the cold tongue east of Japan warm too.
  19. Today
  20. CAPE
    The usual. Congrats eastern PA/NJ.
  21. SACRUS
    Today's Highs (smoke mostly cleared north of phl) New Brnswck: 89 EWR: 88 LGA: 88 PHL: 88 TTN: 87 BLM: 86 TEB: 86 NYC: 86 JFK: 86 ACY: 85 ISP: 84
  22. CoastalWx
    Probably won’t happen
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think there are global things in motion/phase, and you see this reflected in the PDO. I agree SSTs are secondary to air patterns.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO is less related to ENSO than people think. Maybe more so west-based events correlate, but east-based events primarily effect the North Pacific High
  26. LakePaste25
    IMO, I think of the PDO like snow cover. If a large area has deep snow cover (or lack thereof), it can enhance (or weaken) a polar high, which can impact an individual storm track. But it can only do so much. If you have a cutter going into ORD, snow cover in new england or the mid atlantic won’t stop it from cutting. And over time, as we know, those repeated cutters will weaken the snow cover. So think of the super Nino as the pattern driving the cutters, and the -PDO as the snow cover. The super Nino will continuously override it over time with a zonal jet until it flips to +PDO. I know this is not a perfect analogy because El Niños mean less cutters literally. But you get the idea.
  27. EasternLI
    Ah, but are we talking sst pdo, or upper air pdo (like the one I posted)?
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