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Man I wish it wasn’t a total fantasy. Would actually be quite the forum pleaser. CCB gets decently west and the inverted trough covers people well outside the CCB.

He has Ji mentality...it's a bust or the back edge is approaching before it even starts. Cecily new map puts Philly in the 8-12 (from 4-8) now with the mention of blizzard conditions criteria and thunder snow. Let's get this thing going!!

I'm in Lakewood. Bummed will be missing this. Currently in Florida where its in the mid 80's. Will be watching from afar via my security cameras.

I don't think so with this one. If anything it'll be a rain at start to heavy snow scenario, not prolonged rain during height of storm anywhere.

Sorry for posting such a question but struggling to make a decision: currently in the Berkshires, ok to head back (3 hour drive) tomorrow morning at around 9? It does appear the heavier stuff arrives in the early afternoon but not certain.

Long range HRRR has a crusher on the 12z run

Sooooo for ASH area cement type with little wind ?(up coming event)?

Looks nothing like it

It’s pretty much stacked early on….those “blizzard loops” happen in maturing storms when the sfc low starts getting “pulled” in by the upper low.

He was done with this though after the overnight euro shat the bed.

You put it better than I could. Thanks.

I'm going to try and get into IBSP Monday (research purposes). I feel somewhere between there and Squan will be the bullseye. Matter of finding somewhere that doesn't have massive drifts

Yes plus temps a little above freezing means probably white rain in NYC until early-mid afternoon. I was surprised rhe blizzard warning starts 6 am but I guess that's as a precaution.

Not right along the coast in Monmouth or Ocean - I bet there is a mixing or change over at some point for at least a while

Nothing posted as of yet

Aside from that initial tuck east of Jersey, we don't get much of a stall/loop like some of this past biggies. Probably the only thing holding back the widespread 2-3ft totals..

Possibly more if the Nam is to be believed

It’s wrong biased

That would probably slide NE but yeah…the dry conveyor will start getting wrapped around the low.

Is hrrr warm biased this far out?

Don’t ya think?

I don't think we're done after this. I saw 10-20" but I try not to pay attention to other maps to avoid tainting my forecast. We should be fine. I'm not seeing any big dry slotting issues.

Absolutely, that’s why I highlighted the 18hr look because past that’s truly beyond the pale for the HRRR lol, and is already shaky. I will take the better result but yeah doesn’t really move things

will be interesting to see how the barrier islands in Ocean County do with this storm - I remember traveling west from Silverton which had 1 inch to Southern Lakewood - 7 miles away which had 7 inches from a storm