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I will take a middle ground of the ICON and GFS. If the GFS doesnt keep going west we will be fine with 70 MPH gusts from a 974mb Low. Interesting to see what the Euro shows.

ouch. same happened to me last January. it was stupid expensive

Salisbury would be dug out in June

GFS all alone it seems

Yeah buts it’s still like a few noise level shifts from a HECS.

12z CMC with a solid run! Not as strong as the GFS but still a big hit!

CMC wonky and SE evolution out to 102.

If you go back and look at the 00z run from 1/22 of the Euro which was a huge hit, the kicker was way up in Central Canada and it was much slower to occlude. All I will say is, that piece that becomes the kicker is currently over the NW Pacific Ocean, somewhere between Japan and the Aleutian Islands. I doubt the models have a good handle on it. It won’t even be on land (North America) until Friday.

Now watch we have the GFS as the only model in our camp. I hope not, because it'll just lead us on to hang on longer than we should. Come on Euro......if ever we needed you

That did something similar last night. Onto something maybe?

I saw those guys at House of Indy

convective feedback issues-2 lows showing

We back? I love this forum. I’ve been here since EasternWX and every hit or miss follows the same trajectory of hope and despair and hope again, many times over. I’m just glad we’re tracking anything at all.

Got family in Galloway an beach house In ocean City Maryland. Keeping my options open for now

Go further EAST. Salvo/Rodanthe NC!

CMC says not so fast

You dont even live here in winter. You essentially hate winter. Oh and this storm was a great storm for the central ohio crew but it was short of 20" so if it was here you'd be complaining. I know, because you had many critiques when Detroit had a 16.7" storm in 2015.

That's what they said this last storm...until we were dry-slotted for 6-8 hours - No telling the glacier we could have had. Granted this is a different storm setup- but it seems as of late whatever models say, it's always way overdone. I think at one point for today the low was supposed to -8, ended up at 12 (20 degree difference) - Granted it's cold as all get out, but nothing is verifying as modeled. Again, that is more upstate of SC, it maybe verifying perfectly everywhere else, but here - not close.

I'd lock that mfer up right now and wouldn't gamble.

CMC a step back

They are just being slow in updating the PNS. Not sure why it’s THAT slow, but they already announced on social media some of the storm totals so the entire thing is included.

I hope we score something because right now most models give .10 qpf the next 10-15 days. That ranks in bottom 10% of all periods with a mean temperature at or below what they are predicting for averag temperature Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I think the AFD is by far the best and most succent analysis of this setup possible: KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a coastal system this weekend. Very favorable storm patten in terms of analogs for big snows in the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge, blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive pattern. Guidance continues to show a Miller A type Nor`easter (it has been a while for one to form, let alone show up in model guidance). While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to see as indicated by the latest 00Z guidance and ensembles. Future runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm comes to fruition or not and impacts land. Regardless, expect fluctuations over the next day or two until the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore across the western US.