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I was surprised to see plenty of past-peak foliage in the Catskills already this weekend, especially around Shandaken and West Kill. There's a lot of great color around though.

Always that 1 storm Maybe Mid atlantic winter this year?

I only see three down? KMOB, KTLH, and KEVX

Cooler air has finally made it to our area. Been in the 60's since this morning with a light chilly breeze out of the north.

I expect it to be warmer than what Euro is showing.

We basically get some showers... maybe half inch from it

@griteater posting

68 degrees under mostly sunny skies here...perfect fall day

It’s expecting more storminess in the South so it stays cooler.

Any idea how long the Gulf radars are expected to be down for? This could be a very bad weekend to not have radar. NWS can still view them but the public cannot.

it's pretty bad. The continent would be mostly devoid of any arctic air-sure the south is cooler but it's not arctic orgin air. Winter cancel right there.

No surprise here. It's quite common for September or even early October to be the warmest time of the year on the California coast.

You should say it might

Gfs

I'll try this again. Lol I like how the Euro has 850 temp anomalies for most of the forum under 1C for the DJF period. The SLP for the periid is tasty too. Sorry about the 850 map, but that's all money can buy you on the free site. Bncho?

Win one more round and lose in the 2nd round to the Penguins again? Sure

It is possible. This storm has a runway to attain hurricane status but it not be an ideal environment. There will be westerly shear and dry air impacting the storm to some extent though if this is moving to the NE the shear vector may not be that unfavorable. Also, divergent flow aloft on the east side means this could be a strong, lopsided system. If the surface circulation gets hung up or moves more west it seems (based on ensembles) the shear and dry air win out. At this point we need a center to track before we reach any conclusions on the future environment but it is by no means going to be pristine. We have seen, especially in recent years, storms be able to overcome similar environments while heading NE so I wouldn't write this one off at all even given the look that certainly features westerly shear and continental air impacts at some point. This location is well known for overproducers too this time of year. Will be an interesting week, but at a minimum this looks to be a significant heavy rain event in the deep south and possibly some major drought relief in the Carolinas

Awesome shots.

Really not that bad, if correct. I thought the whole USA would be red with a super nino

Maybe we'll break our hurricane drought with this system

The thread for the Gulf tropical threat has been started:

just 10-15 short days away on an OP model