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Scottsville received 3.20" yesterday evening! Augusta received 4 sprinkles. Today, NWS says 30% and Graf says 100% for Augusta!! This will be a real test for Graf.

Excellent photo!!

Ring of fire pattern returns later next week ? I was reading over tonight's Nws forecast discussion and was delighted to hear that we may return to a ring of fire pattern later next week. The good news for most of you reading this is that I haven't heard mention of that possibility anywhere else to this point. The spc does mention the return of thunderstorms in the northeast and mid atlantic next thursday but doesn't give any mention of any anomalous ridge and believes the best large scale assent will remain north of the continental border.

"from the annoying guy and how some of the stuff he says doesn't seem to make sense." "favoring increased winter threats in the deep South because the jet will be shifted south." These are the kind of things one needs to monitor in discussions/posts. Put on your critical thinking hat! It all can sound great, then you catch one item that does not make sense that is biggie. Yes, it could be typo or honest mistake, but not always. Proof/authority by obfuscation or pontificating is a common tactic on some social media posts. And then we have AI-queries that are cut/pasted that can make it even harder to spot!

"Linear logic" -- solid term, esp. as it applies to wx/climate! Linear logic does not work well for a coupled, chaotic, non-linear system as the Earth's atmos/cryo/hydrosphere. "Supercharge" is largely a media term for hype. But if you want to go that route, what about El Nino "supercharging" the wind shear over the Atlantic MDR? It is at an all-time record level by far (at least since 1979) per CSU. Where is the mention of that in the mainstream? Even when it is, it will be spun in a way still negative for society or made a into "problem." Cherry-picking at its finest. When the Atlantic was very active 2020-2025, want to know what was going on the NW Pacific for TCs for the same period? It was the lowest 6-year total ACE on record since 1950 for this basin (66% of avg). And the NW Pacific supplies the most ACE for any tropical basin in the world (double any other basin). "Supercharge" is subjective term and often gets used selectivity, so not a good term to use, esp. for complex systems. Also, more or stronger/higher does not all mean "worse" or "bad" when it comes to sensible wx and the cycles/patterns they are connected to/influenced by.

Here is food for thought... We see this El Nino is in record territory. The thing to keep in mind that things do not work linearly necessarily just b/c you have "stronger" or "strongest ever." Case in point, the very strong El Nino in 2015-16. Up until that point, it was an expected given that Cali gets big rains in very strong El Nino, and the Pac NW is dry. Well, that did not happen. In fact, the exact opposite happened, and the MSM was all over that acting, "that's it, Cali is done...PERMANENT DROUGHT!" And then the very next year, weak La Nina, and it was one of the wettest on record for Cali. No insight or restraint, just knee-jerk, here-and-now nonsense. The point all being we are too fixated on making analogs and forecasting *exact* sensible wx for any/all regions. Well, that's not really the best fcst science. Non-linear system the Earth system is and works. So who is to say there will not be a couple of blockbuster E Coast snowstorms 2026-27, and snowiest than any other very strong El Nino winter DCA-BOS? We only have 4 other very strong El Ninos to compare since 1950, so no way we have seen the full gamut of what is possible or the variance, esp. region to region. I can give another example. Recall the fcsts for the 2024 Atlantic hU season? They were off the charts, going to be an all-time record, and yes, the indicators were there. And it started fast and early w/ Beryl, but then what happened? The climo peak of the season got ripped out Aug-Sep. Yes, it still was an above avg season, (161 ACE) but a far cry from the hyperactive season that was fcst (220+ ACE). It was not 1933, 2004, or 2005, not even close, and a significant fcst bust by all. Things got messed up b/c we had an ITCZ that was too far N and this squashed many of the Cabo Verde waves, so we could not even get TCs to form in the MDR peak season. A wildcard factor that shows there are still unknowns out there and we have a lot to learn, despite all our advances. And no, that does not mean I am saying it is going to be a big E Coast snow winter, just saying that surprises and unexpected still do happen, in spite of analogs/past seasons.

This is fantastic, hahaha

"I’m not going by emotion." Whoa, scroll back a few posts, you said: "At least summer gives some interesting weather usually. It’s been like San Diego here and I’m not holding out hopes for anything this winter that will move the weenie. I acknowledge we could get near normal snow in spots, but I’m not getting my hopes up after years of depression. Positivity is a waste." Is this not emotion (the bold)? An another post you were saying you were being objective. So which is it? Just looking for a little consistency here.

What, as if Jan-Feb 2026 never occurred? Come on! I'll say it again, how often does Weymouth get two 20"+ snowstorms in a single winter? This downer stuff is coming from someone as a kid in the 80s who used to wake up to full sun so ticked b/c he did not get his 4-8" "backlash" snow! Take more cues from @ineedsnow and get pumped every upcoming event/winter!

What about something like this? G103mph at DE-lux-BURY MA (that's your nickname for the location, not mine!) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2021_nor'easter| G113 mph Truro MA. That's among the highest gusts ev-A recorded at sea level in a nor'easter in New England. Probably the 2/2/1976 one had gusts this high on the ME coast (the one that flooded downtown BGR). And of course, @CoastalWx fav -- Dec 9, 2005 ("what's that roar noise outside?" -- said by Scott waking up in the aftn in GHG!). Even if we got something like this again, he'd be like, "MEH! NIMBY!"

Update weenie dictionary https://www.patreon.com/JaysWintryMix/posts/97501273?utm_campaign=postshare_creator

Recall that overnight in Feb 2016 (I think it was that year)? @CoastalWx was thoroughly impressed w/ the LTG. Probably the most CGs in SNE for a single tstm event in Feb on record! Then he could not believe the two spinners in wrn MA on 2/25/2017!

It eludes me why Emily from 2005 was not retired. Not b/c it was Cat 5 in July, but b/c it made two Cat 3 landfalls in Mexico. Usually, a Cat 3 or higher landfall anywhere us retired no problem. But retirement request I think are based on if the country(s) impact from officials there. Since Mexico was the only country direct impacted, they must have not requested it in the annual WMO meeting. Bret in 1999 was a Cat 3 landall in TX, but it was small and made landfall between the very sparsely populated area between CRP and BRO, so it was not retired.

These Ai models [emoji102]

A bit of caution here. The other two very strong El Ninos since 1950? 1983 was lowest ACE on record in the satellite era and only 4 NS. 1992 had only 7 NS and an ACE of 40. Yes, we had Andrew, but I am looking at entire seasons here, not individual storms. 1983 had Alicia Cat 3 that made a direct hit on HOU. 2023 going by the RONI index, was a moderate El Nino, not very strong. https://ggweather.com/enso/roni.htm This is only the 5th very strong El Nino since 1950, so small sample size precludes a statistically significant signal either way for what 2027 might hold using just very strong El Nino as an indicator.