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Yeah we'll see as we get closer but a total washout seems unlikely

Before we get stuck with another streak of 90s

Really dont find it odd or eerie at all. Weather often has a history of being very similar. Case in point, last year the weather went to shit the week of commencement for the naval academy. Same thing happened this year. Doesnt seem like anything special.

CanSIPS was too cold overall across the CONUS during the 2025-2026 winter. It verified as the 2nd warmest winter on record across the CONUS. To be fair none of the models correctly forecast how warm and expansive the Western ridge would become. This allowed the East to turn out colder for a change than the seasonal models such as the CanSIPS were forecasting. But the magnitude and geographic coverage of the cold was limited compared to the expansive and record breaking nature of the warmth.

Yep, too many people look at that product and think "ooh red, it's gonna be hot" when it doesn't actually show temperatures at all.

I use https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Very easy to rank different variables, years, etc. Ive used it for years. Excellent resource.

The usual cold spots in SE MI tanked this morning. 39F at Ann Arbor. With the cool mornings keeping the house cool and fresh, theres been no need for the AC in the afternoon. That will change tmrw or definitely Thursday. Regardless, why cant we have this low humidity all summer!

Saturday looks hot. Hopefully we can stave off the rain

all the people in this thread trying to wishcast away a super

Almost looks like smoke coming down from the NE today on visible today . Has the look

Jewelry! ….. As always ……

Not sure ... For whatever method, those are probabilities tho. For whatever metrics they're weighting, not the actually anomalies like this sentence intimates: "One thing I notice a lot is the CPC seems to overdo sfc temp anomalies." I blame CPC - most people misconstrue that product. In fact, I've pointed this out on this site, to the same individuals who continue to do so LOL ... and it doesn't seem to register. They probably - or should ... but who knows - provide an explanation/methodology statement somewhere in their web access. They do have a contact option. The only thing they have is a confidence/probability by forecaster, but don't delve into what the forecaster is actually looking over.

68.8/49.3 at 2:30 pm with cloudy skies on ENE breezes. Had some sprinkles about two hours ago and looks like some heavier/moderate is on the way glancing at radar from the north.

Yes but based on what? 500 mb heights? Do they even factor in marine influences? And objectively, given the surface pattern in this case, it looks more like near normal or leaning below. You have to wonder how much manual adjustment is made, or is it just straight model output averages like the NBM. The public and even some mets don't see these outlooks as probability. They often see the warm color, and think temps will be above avg this period. I've even seen some clueless OCMs state when there is big cold probability bulls-eye present, "the polar vortex will be here!"

I think the difference between this rain threat coming up for Sunday and the Memorial Day weekend event is that the Memorial Day weekend event brought meaningful rain. The potential rainfall this coming Sunday will be more meaningless but just enough to F up a weekend day. Looks like 1/2" or less for most spots based on the more reliable model guidance. We'll see how it plays out but it does not look overly wet IMO.

Coworker weather

look

Wanna to bet?

Wednesday Morning, June Chill

those aren't scalar anomaly ranges ... They're probabilities for being above(below) at all... scaled.

I saw a dead cub at exit 8 on 89 this morning.

Nino 3.4 was unchanged at +0.5 in yesterday’s release. The other 3 regions warmed 0.1. I’m expecting 3.4 to be a few ticks warmer in the next weekly release as a typical delayed reaction to the start of the SOI drop a couple of weeks ago. 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7