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This looks like a classic pike north severe event . I’d head to ORH if I were you

Kind of a bummer how this played out locally after much of the forecasting had IKK pretty comfortably in the warm sector.

From 10 percent double-hatched to two percent.

pepperidge farm remembers

Storm West of Bloomington IL is trying.

Looks like things are about to kick off.

mesos are definitely becoming a bit more intriguing with tomorrow

A few days ago there were model forecasts of record low barometric pressures for the month of June out of the current system. Anyone know if that is verifying?

Chase plans cancelled due to clear southward shifts in supercell tornado risk coupled with a brutal week at work. Tornadoes miss southern Wisconsin/IL north of 88 to the north in April and to the south in June? Go figure.

Hodos are long and curved. Kevin approved.

we've got to get some supercells quickly now in IL

Bingo. Looks like a complete bust in all honesty, the whole area of clearing is already filling in with convection. I’ve seen the subway less packed than IL/MO

SOI Dashboard Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 16 Jun, 2026 Average SOI for last 30 days -20.85 Average SOI for last 90 days -12.51 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -3.30 Monthly average SOI values Mar 7.59 Apr -9.88 May -13.22 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 16 Jun 2026 1015.72 1014.90 -3.30 -20.85 -12.51 15 Jun 2026 1014.15 1014.70 -12.93 -21.65 -12.43 14 Jun 2026 1012.95 1015.20 -24.88 -21.99 -12.27 13 Jun 2026 1013.31 1016.35 -30.44 -21.77 -12.05 12 Jun 2026 1013.95 1016.80 -29.10 -21.27 -11.81 11 Jun 2026 1015.79 1016.65 -15.11 -20.72 -11.37 10 Jun 2026 1015.93 1015.45 -5.69 -20.61 -10.91 9 Jun 2026 1014.09 1014.60 -12.65 -20.73 -10.58 8 Jun 2026 1014.36 1016.70 -25.52 -20.24 -10.22 7 Jun 2026 1014.05 1017.70 -34.73 -19.19 -9.71 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 1 Jun 2026 1013.74 1014.85 -16.87 -

Some changes as we move towards the third week of June.

Tropical downpour and constant lightning in this band moving through. Nice to get a little garden variety action.

Seems like a pretty solid Stein south of 90. Maybe a shower in the morning . Monday trended south on GFS

Definitely has the feel of an underperformer today. Seems like stuff already popping for 2nd round. We need more time to recover. But shear is stupid so something will probably happen on boundary.

After another week without rain I cant imagine tomorrow’s drought update will be very pretty for NC

80/70 probs on the new watch

Well today seems to have shifted to an I72 event in IL

...New England/Mid-Atlantic... Convection will likely be ongoing ahead of the upper trough during the morning, particularly from eastern New York into New England. While this activity is likely to inhibit afternoon destabilization, strong wind fields will still promote some risk for damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado. The strongest activity will develop by early afternoon along the cold front and progress eastward. Bowing segments and marginal supercell structures will be possible. The strong low-level jet will be shifting eastward during the day, but portions of New England will still have strong 850 mb winds during the early/mid afternoon. If sufficient heating occurs, this is where the tornado risk will be marginally greater.

Re: IWX's forecast area... I think along and south of IN State Road 14 has a shot at a strong tornado. Maybe a spin-up along and south of U.S. 30. My biggest concern in South Bend is whether my basement gets water.

Not even close shower #2 went south It's so over Even if it hit were talking .10"