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I’d usually decry a jinx thread for a threat this early until I remember my overall odds have been crummy all season anyway. So let’s do it! (CT/NY/PA/NJ) sigh….

Yikes, here we go again.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios. ...Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained. Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.

Today is phenomenal. Widespread 40s to start the day. Low of 43F and up to 73F currently.

I’m at the Poutine Festival in Londonderry. Yay….

Some blue over the UP of MI https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2026082912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_50.png

Got a rare easterly flow today with rain coming east to west!

Top fiver

Looks like one after the other. Not enthused for any rain

Beautiful day in the Bronx. .

Looks like on and off chances nearly all next week then too. Annoying

Tuesday may end up holding the day with most potential here for western sections. What happens on Tuesday may end up pushing the boundary well southwest on Wednesday and we end up very stable

Good Lord the Commanders look sooo bad. DQ seems to never have them prepared. Sucks to see the team you grew up with look like this.

Yeah ridge runners this week will cut back on the heat and then it cools off after. Sad times.

Damn. Lush green here-I think we could be dry for 2 weeks and lawns would still look nice.

Had the kids at Long’s Park all morning. Absolutely beautiful out.

Been real dry here too. My oaks are losing leaves and lawn is dead.

Southern half of Wilson county is getting a decent soaking but nothing wants to pop north.