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Looks like the retirement of the NAMs/HRRR/HREF/etc and operational implementation of the RRFS has been delayed again, this time to November 3. An error was found within one of the ensemble members of the RRFS and was corrected, but I guess per policy they have to wait 30-days

I understand why the snowfall tangent in a main ENSO thread can be frustrating for some, and am sorry for that, but the fact is that that a large percentage of weather circles share a common bond; snowfall is what first compelled us to crawl over to the window and, ultimately acted as the catalyst for that nascent interest in weather that has continued to flourish to the extent that it carries us through even our darkest hours today. It's the fountain of youth in that we get to relive that same, youthful and eternally hopeful jubilance that life would have otherwise long since stolen from us...it's that unique lived experience that binds us with the strongest of social fabric, and it's that unique lived experience that drives the autistic inertia that ends in my annual drafting of the longest winter outlook known to man on annual basis, despite having two jobs and 4 children under the ago of 7. Hope that answers your question, spoony-fork-

i see your two stations on Davis map lol.

Early data in for Sept. Chalk up another warm one. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

Dipped to 31 in Wallace overnight. Lots of upper 30's around the state in spots that radiate well. Even as far south as Vineland in far south Jersey. Temperatures per NJ WXNET. Overnight low here was 42 on the top of the hill.

For Saturday the SPC highlights the coastal boundary moving north. Should be all kinds of shear there, especially as warmer air moves onshore. I'm still watching for later Saturday farther inland across Alabama. If a hybrid system can get an open quasi warm sector going, I could imagine some north-south bands of low toppers too. Would need the rain shield to scoot away and destabilization. Otherwise, the coastal front would be the focus. My zone is TBD for a couple days still. Need a named storm to model. For now, from the SPC for Sat... At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.

55 currently with cool breeze. Had to grab the hoodie to sit outside and have coffee.

Obviously early RI would probably make this stronger at landfall too as if it becomes a Cat 3 extremely rapidly over the next 60 hours that would allow it to do the whole "making its whole environment around it" thing

You have a subforum for your CC autism. I think the autism implication here is a restricted interest, and I really don't think that fits, dude.....I think I cover a great deal when I write about weather....including CC.

Depending on the track, shear could be a net neutral, even allowing for strengthening through landfall as the shear vector is aligned with the storms track if it tracks more to the East/faster.

48.9 here, wind stayed up off the sound so really did not drop much...

you have a local subforum for your backyard snow autism

Yes, it's generally viewed as one of the more compelling elements of weather, which is why it's such a point of focus amongst weather circles. I understand why someone who adds nothing else other than snowfall related banter may elicit some frustration from a few, but I really don't think I fall into that category.

ENSO is tied to everything, which is why this thread encompasses just about everything....it's generally accepted and tacitly understood.

snow autism, many such cases

As I have gotten older, my inner normie kicks through and the “sweatshirt to leave the house morning, shorts coming back” has become top tier. Love this weather for football, apple orchards, and other fall shit. Plus I can send the kids back outside to play after school.

climate change is a likely contributor to the strength of this nino. also the enso index you guys insist we use is adjusted for climate change

46 in upper NW, DCA with a low of 50, coldest since May.

whole region sleeping good EPS casting mild zzzzs across much of the continent in the extended

Looks like a wall of shear before anything hits the Gulf coast. The SE is pretty dry so a good rainer would help. If we’re really dealing with 40kt shear on the Gulf coast, hard for me to see how anything beyond a moderate/strong TS can make it.

and what reason is that?