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SPC has day 2 marginal and slight risk out for west and middle tn specifically the northwest area of west tn and marginal up to and around i65 looks like a thunderstorm complex setup for 5-15% damaging wind 2% tornado and also 5% hail as well https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html .

Congrats Miami on hitting 100°

I might officially declare the drought over. The question now is are we gonna get our once every 5-10 yr blizzard.

We need AO help biggly and not the overrated kind. I’m otherwise in the @forkyforkcamp on this one.

January could end up pretty warm is we build huge departures early on.

Last season featured my first positive seasonal snowfall anomaly since 2017-2018.

Oh, that is your site? Awesome job! My only critique is that it only has mean vp, and not vp anomalies.

Mowing today, did not finish, ran over the second yellow jacket nest of the season. Will need to work on that after dark. Lawn has come back nicely, now that cooler weather and lower dews have arrived.

We hit 99 today. First time this year and hopefully the last time. Heat index as high as 126 earlier.

The desertification of the UK. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/17/uk-government-emergency-drought-plans-transparency

We got like 10-12” but we live elevated. Half mile down the road by the park was the complete disaster.

NAM 3k runs have been really bullish for Thursday. Kiss of death?

The more I follow the Clancy case, the more it points to Patricks guilt instead. He did it.

@CoastalWx should read this before passing summary judgement on the RRFS! RRFS_webinar_20260625.pdf

MIA hit 100F for only the 2nd time ever today.

I got the property cleaned up and ready for our guests arriving tomorrow afternoon in the Short term rental. The sound of chain saws nearby all day and the neighbors above cutting down trees. I believe that's was the worst storm since Fred 5 years ago for our part of the Mountains.

I actually picked up some back-built leftovers yesterday for 0.49" total for the day and a 2-day event total of 1.06". Had a low of 73 and a high of 87. The dews have been annoying and it's currently 84 with dp 73.

A strong El Niño favors a cool Fall that turns mild for December but who knows.

October will be rocking

2 cold Winter's in the Northeast followed by an El Nino looks like this precip wise (10 analogs is a pretty good amount) Now keep in mind that includes Weak Nino's and we are going to have the strongest on record by 15%, so maybe it's still really hard to get a dry Winter but I thought the analog composite was interesting (since we know how the dry pattern has been present for the past 2 years, minus wet July and Aug which has been the decadal trend 2017-2026).

Cooked

pepperidge farm remembers

I think it would take a lot of bad luck to get shut out. It could happen, like it did in 1998 and that early 70s winter. But with a highly juiced up STJ, I’d definitely take my chances. In 2016 we got a perfectly timed -AO/-NAO even after a disastrous December, and if that happens again then all bets are off. The long range precip anomaly maps for the winter months make me feel pretty good about big storm chances.

I believe somewhere on the East coast will get a HECS, just not sure exactly where.