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  2. tamarack
    New Sweden (just north from CAR) reported 1.0".
  3. AlexD1990
    DT was comparing it to the perfect storm on FB.
  4. Brewbeer
    many people don't believe this is an existential crisis for long term human civilization because so far, many people have been able to adapt to the changes that they have experienced, so far it has already become an existential crisis for some people living in and around Miami as king tides increasingly impact low lying neighborhoods; people can't sell their homes because the value is greatly diminished due the reoccurring sunny day flooding, which is progressively getting worse. for a person who lives in such a neighborhood and needs to sell and leave, it IS an existential crisis. same goes for millions who live on only feet above sea level in southeast Asia, which have substantially less means that the home owner getting flooded out in southern Florida has we've been discussing AGW/climate change and it's on-going effects since the 1970s. it's well understood. because the facts and basis for it are so widely accepted, there is a general frustration with people who won't accept the facts, or modify their behaviors accordingly
  5. JTA66
    Slight risk day 2 west of the river. We'll see.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was arguing that the forcing would be little to the west of the super-El Nino composite due to that, and you disagreed....it was like a couple of weeks ago.
  7. Typhoon Tip
    If someone is distorting, or attempting to alter an understanding of reality, that is “demagoguery” or gaslighting. The data that is real and empirical does not support a grand CC conspiracy to fabricate a climate crisis to jump in bed with macro-economics required to rewire the world around a green infrastructure... Glaciers melted... Seas already rising ... Global temperatures exceed previous record along a contiguously accelerating curve ... Species dying off or in states of diaspora due to lacking the ability to adapt at a pace their habitats are forcibly changing ... Math and physics demonstrating that these should exactly happen - and here we are... This compendium of objective realities does not suggest a grand CC conspiracy. They suggest CC. Period.
  8. IrishRob17
    There is typically lake effect talk in this region: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/10-upstate-new-yorkpennsylvania/
  9. yoda
    Ah our old friend QLCS (from this morning AFD from LWX) Warm conditions return Friday as sunshine and southwest winds push highs back up to the low to mid 80s. Models continue to slow the arrival of our next cold front. The leading edge of the front, with its associated line of showers and thunderstorms, is now progged to cross the area Friday late afternoon to evening. The later arrival also allows for more instability to develop, which will act to fuel stronger thunderstorms. Sufficient shear should support an organized like of convection, with embedded severe thunderstorms. While damaging wind gusts are going to be the primary threat, a quick QLCS tornado spin-up is certainly possible. SPC has added a Slight Risk across the northern Shenandoah Valley to northern MD, with a Marginal Risk covering the rest of the forecast area.
  10. yoda
    Squeegee line instead?
  11. bluewave
    I have been taking about the importance of the +30 C warm pool for years now. Back over the summer we were discussing the potential of the +30 C warm pool off of Mexico linking up with the Nino +3 +30C warm pool. So not sure what resistance you are referring to.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...like I said in my original point, which you disagreed with....PDO is not the driver, but it is reflective of the drivers, so it shouldn't be ignored.
  13. WinterWolf
    Ya, they’re bored. That’s all it means.
  14. LakePaste25
    It likely will not flip positive long-term because of subsurface warmth in the extratropical W pac from the semi-permanent La Niña state that we’ve been in. So if it flips (I’m confident it will, it won’t last). PDO is very slow to respond and it’ll take a multi-year Nino state to reverse it, just like it took a multi year Nina state to get it where it is today. To get that multi year Nino we need a stretch of Modoki’s just like during the 2010s. East based supers are not very conducive unfortunately. I think it’ll we will get that favorable stretch in the 2030s, but just to be clear, my position on this is that a +PDO in the 2030s will not be the reason for any favorable pattern in the E, it’ll simply be a consequence of a multi year modoki/favorable pattern.
  15. Brewbeer
    I think the line is "she shaved her legs then he was a she"
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah I saw that. Highly unlikely. Some sort of hybrid warm seclusion coastal, definitely possible. The perfect storm, which started as a typical cold core nor’easter absorbed hurricane Grace. That’s never happened before (recorded) or since. .
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak started following October 2026
  18. DirtySnowDen
    The fact people are out of the woodwork early means something.
  19. Mount Joy Snowman
    Low of 52. No rain here. Interesting couple of weather days ahead. Big win for the Brewers last night.
  20. WinterWolf
    Ya…I get it. It(the know it all comments)infuriates me though. Oh, I thought he was a he?
  21. H2O
    91.6 yesterday 66 now Gotta love damn near 30F temp drops
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    We are definitely on the same page. If we do not get a handle on this asap, we pass a point of no return. Positive feedback loops overwhelming take over. That’s where I think the real threat that isn’t modeled excists. How do you model and account for something we do not fully understand. Then what happens to humanity at 5c? Certainly we aren’t supporting 8 billion with 2/3’s of the earth uninhabitable. Worst case scenario we can go further (though I’m not sure it’s possible) and go full hot house earth. Thats obviously a species ending event. .
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not crazy about the JMA this season....it has continued to try to turn this event into a Modoki, which never made much sense to me, and makes even less since now that it's getting the warm pool that far east.
  24. WinterWolf
    Be careful…James is watching you.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    You were resisting me on the importance of the 30C warm pool with respect to forcing when it was modeled south of Hawaii, and I was arguing it would compete with the east-based El Nino, but now that there is support for it getting further east it's full-steam ahead. lol
  26. WinstonSalemArlington
    RIP NAM
  27. WinterWolf
    Scott says no lol….Tip says we may have already seen our nor’easter…. easy to say when it’s 9-10 days away. But…
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