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This definitely tracks with OTG truth here. I am at 0.28" for the month. According to the RAH AFD, Raleigh east is in the crosshairs for tomorrow, we shall see. Just warning you guys ahead of time if it's a dud for me, I will whine a bit.

Let’s keep wagons heading south

-PNA +NAO Ehhhhhh... Can see occasional cold shots but they will be shallow and fleeting at best. Everyone in a +2.5-+4 winter Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Glad you experienced it! The clouds and light in the early mornings and evenings have been really spectacular the last few days. The rule of thumb of 4-5 degrees drop per 1000 feet works pretty well most of the time when planning. As ValpoVike wrote, snow can happen any time of year up there, though mid June through Labor Day it is seldom a driving problem. Only another 4 weeks till leaves start to change- and this year they may be early, not because of cold but because of drought stress.

This isn’t going to produce much for anyone. That’s clear

yeah... no one's been told before that the NAM has a N-W biases beyond 24 hours... heh

These are always tough because it depends on exactly where the front stalls and where the low pressure tracks. I've felt the past few days the GFS may be a bit too aggressive with Saturday...at least with northwest extent of the heavier rain. We'll probably see some showers around though given weak lift

Congrats NYC, LI

Qdoba > Chipotle

Yea, I get it's too early to definitely say whether that will chance by the time that the winter season ensues, but the mid latitude ground truth relative to the development of past major El Nio events dictates that this definitely remains a work on progress.

Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 1214 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 PAZ012-041-042-045-046-049>053-057>059-065-066-210000- /O.EXB.KCTP.FA.A.0013.000000T0000Z-260821T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Lock Haven, Shamokin, Renovo, Williamsport, Selinsgrove, Harrisburg, Danville, Pottsville, Hershey, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Sunbury, York, Lebanon, Trout Run, Lewisburg, Laporte, and Lancaster 1214 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Columbia, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Montour, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Schuylkill, Snyder, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Union and York. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Periods of heavy rain are expected this afternoon through the evening. Rainfall amounts up to 3 inches are possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

New GFS keeps most of it south of all of us Saturday

Hopefully, the guidance will be accurate and the heaviest rains will avoid your area and others that have recently experienced flooding.

Need the return of hemispheric seasonal gradient increase - the triggered machinery response ( wave spacing and speeds and jet location biases ..et all) will be conducted by the new maestro so to speak. Prior to that, all we have is WWBs and vague SS stressing differentiating SST pattern/morphology, happening amid a generic summer hemisphere that remains unresponsive. The gradient and the response/forcing of planetary wave modes come hand in hand

Are you at Chipotle?

Feeling FAIRLY confident that my area of NW NJ will escape the heaviest event totals. Guidance has been targeting mainly along and east of I95 for max totals. Will have to watch radar over the next several hours. Key for NW NJ is where downstream convection starts to "ignite". Hopefully it will be near or east of BWI/PHL and then lift and/or train NE leaving NW NJ with just more frontal related rainfall but still with heavy downpours. Can deal with 1 or 2" out this way but 3-5" totals not good for this area. Still very wet out my way. Sitting at 5.5" for August to date here.

What a time to be alive

Looks like Hawaii dodging a bullet with Two-C

The August 20, 2026 12z HREF:

Drought buster incoming

Very tough forecast. Definitely better potential for more in the way of consistent rain eastern CT and points east, particularly on Saturday. Sunday I don't think is a rain all day but there could be some room for some strong storms and downpours in the afternoon if we destabilize enough. Saturday could be like EOR type ordeal and Sunday WOR

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