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Hope

Dew points have surged to the low 70s, hopefully the last time this year. Barring any surprises this will end up as the 4th DRIEST August on record in the Twin Cities.

yes

Top 10 day. 75/54.

Overall a dryish month across the state. Broadly speaking the southern half of the state did OK. The northern half, outside of the mountains had a very bad month, especially the NE quadrant. Very frustrating as we had made huge progress from D2/D3 all the way back to D0 or D1 but now we're right back in the hole. What makes it even more frustrating is that it's not like a massive ridge baking out the Southeast; there's been plenty of moisture around and several episodes of good lift, stalled fronts etc. For some reason cells had a hard time popping and those that did seemed to have a short lifespan.

@Birds~69 how you holding up with the Cecily Tynan retirement?

Don, your entire post 100% makes sense. Regardless, please post the August map if you get a chance. Even assuming one cooler than normal summer wouldn’t suddenly stabilize the glaciers, I want to see whether or not his supposed summer map is essentially a lie in itself. TIA. And on what the heck is he basing his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years?? Is this just made up out of thin air?

Yup...definitely want to focus where that sets up. It could be an active night tomorrow night, especially if activity across NY/NE PA is more widespread than modeled. That's some hefty elevated instability moving overhead later in the evening. When you have large MUCAPE building in and either weak forcing or already established convection...convection tends to either persist or continue blossoming.

No stupid snow maps to post when it comes to tropical

How's this any different than winter snow chances?

In a few days, the August monthly anomaly will also be available on Copernicus. Even if the summer average were cooler than normal, it's worth pointing out that the toll taken on glaciers in a warming climate is cumulative. Glaciers don't reset automatically when things turn cooler. That's a point Bastardi either doesn't understand or chooses to ignore.

Its been nothing but "a, b, and c look good, good sign its strengthening" "Thunderstorms blossoming around the center....good sign it's strengthening" "Angle of the thunderstorms...good sign it's strengthening" "Compact storm, just needs to spin more...good sign it's strengthening" But yeah this probably finds some way to get TS winds for about 7 minutes before moving inland

There must be a reason why the same areas have been struck repeatedly. I’ll settle for a garden variety storm at this point

It’ll probably organize enough to get a name, but it’s still not there structurally. Hard to RI when you have no inner core. This would be 2/5 of my NS forecast. The next three need to be hurricanes.

Quite the temp gradient b/w NJ and CT upper 80's to 60's eastern half of CT

What are "preliminary reports?" Do they mean just radar warned tornadoes? Or are those actual confirmed tornadoes?

Never underestimate an EML in NW flow events.

Summer is waiting to return in time for Christmas

Twitter is so ridiculous with weather. Everyone trying so hard to justify why PTC 5 is going to strengthen and going nuts with how the convection looks, how because its a tight circulation so all it needs to do is increase its spin, and blah blah blah...meanwhile recon is extremely meh lol. Its literally been happening yesterday with people trying to will this to just take off

0.92" of rain from stms last night. A general 1" around the area from the complex. Still overcast this morning, and cool, but it's suppose to clear n warm up.

Think it looks pretty good to become a TS if it becomes strong enough. It has some surprisingly nice outflow to its south with a good level of anticyclonic spin aloft. Honestly, the limited convection makes it a good study of the cyclonic surface vs anticyclone aloft.