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I just started a thread on 91L/potential Bertha:

.91 with tstrms

Invest 91L will be investigated by recon today. NHC chances in TWO now very high: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi —————— -Last 5 full UKMET runs, the most consistently enthusiastic of the globals, have had a TS from this moving toward W GOM/LA/TX. -Icon also has been hinting at this with some runs having a TC -0Z Euro is first run with a TC with it near borderline TS S of W FL panhandle

I saw a video from around Deposit, NY of damage from that tornado. I’ll be curious what the rating will be on it.

It was a good call postponing Freedom Fest until Saturday 7/25. Nothing severe here thankfully, a .36” total, 7.95” for the month, and heavy heavy mosquitoes thanks to the deluge from a couple weeks ago. @crossbowftw3I saw the Tornado Warnings yesterday and saw footage of the damage around Deposit, hope you made out ok.

Sucks to be you

We love huge COC

.91 great drink

Yesterday didn’t really bust. The greatest threat for severe weather was off to the West, in which there were a quite a few reports, including at least one tornado. Threat was always lower here and worth watching.

We will all take this. Yes this will be a strong El Nino but its way too early to say what this upcoming winter will be like. How will the NAO, AO , PNA and EPO be ? MJO ? Alot of factors.

Lots of thunder last night though none of it particularly close. Ended up with some solid rains. Looks like a beaut shaping up for today. Moving into the rapid-shortening of days with sunlight losses hitting 2-minutes plus per day at Pit2 this week.

Mount Holly bullish for heavy rainfall here on Tuesday. 1-2" in the forecast for Tuesday night.

I think he meant precip in general. Should do well with rain events to knock down any remaining deficits.

WB 6Z GFS and EURO rain for midweek.

Still no power in Marysville & PPL has no estimated time for restoration yet.

Plenty of ocean heat to be re-distributed, as ocean heat content increased at a rapid pace in the first quarter. The ocean as a whole is warming much faster now vs 97/98.

Set a new record 'warm minimum' for the date of 69.7 degrees, old mark was 69.0 degrees from both 2015 and 2013. Wow it is incredibly muggy/humid here this morning with partly cloudy skies, 72.9/69.0 degrees at 7:50 am. A small thundershower rolled thru here about 3 pm dropping 0.03" and winds gusted to 28 mph, that was relief for about 8 minutes until it cleared and the mugginess/heat returned.

The pattern from the winter is still in place, with long wave troughiness continuing in the northeast and frequent Canadian airmasses. Completely different from last year. We sent all the torch the Western Europe. Persistence ftw. This breaks once the fall EL Nino forcing kicks into high gear.

maybe it's behind us

Can’t recall a more boring summer in some time. No thunderstorms, one synoptic rain event sandwiched around Stein hands , a hot humid summer .. and pure boredom

In the Canadian forests

We need to see months of wetter condions to end the longer term drought. This is a nice start if we can build on it. So August will be important to see if this continues.

WOW you probably have more rain this month than I have for the year. Terrible drought continues here with no end in sight. Leaves are dropping now

Where's all the heat some were talking about?

^Liz Leitman issuing that outlook. She's an incredible forecaster.