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Thundering

Whoa: The stability comes into play in another way, too. Model soundings yield very high shear in the lowest 3kft. There could be supercell structures form as the eastern edge/side of the dry slot moves across the Lower Susq. With low LCLs (very moist environment), there is a chc for an isolated tornado or two. Temps should get into the 60s in the SE as the sun should break through at times, esp late in the day in the dry slot. That would help CAPE climb closer to 1000J. The SPC MRGL risk is painted into our SErn 6-8 counties for this very reason. If we can get upright convection (even shallow), there is a risk for svr gusts and even tornadoes. As the afternoon continues, the favorable convergence of all the svr params will be waning/breaking up.

Nice. I was going to guesstimate about 1.5” based on nearby PWSs. Right around NBM consensus.

CFS isn’t even worth the electrons for single runs

0z CFS. Nice.

Not that it counts for anything, but I’ll again reiterate my preference that we delay any droolworthy pattern until Dec 15 or later. Climo improves so much through the first few weeks of winter. Shoveling feet of pattern for Thanksgiving just helps keep the leftovers chilled on the front porch.

.17 inches here 47 and very light drizzle. I'm hoping the heavier stuff gets in here sometime today.

NJ Power outage up to 4500

Decent soaking, but would have been nice if this could have popped a little coastal low. Oh well, take what we can get.

So isn't the -40, lol, Bit of a hiccup when the batteries get low.

imagine if this were snow

It is absolutely pouring rain now - heaviest of the event except maybe like 3 am when I was dreaming of brisket and Shiner Bock.

1.40 here.

Headed to Cass, WV to ride the train tomorrow morning, stepsisters B-day and she wanted to ride the train and see leaf color, lol. Doing the one along the river (hoping for that bit of remaining color) but with the forecast DEFINITELY riding up to 'Shoe after to see the first snows of the season!

Columbia 9:45am 10/30/25 — 1.7” since 10/29/25

Impacts in St. Johns/SE Canada from Melissa will largely depend on how far west it can get. The strongest winds will likely remain on the east side of the storm, so a miss east would keep any hurricane force gusts off the coast, though TS wind gusts would still be certain in areas

Our last successful MJO 8 with a cold and snowy benchmark pattern was back in January 2022. This featured the relaxation of the Pacific Jet. As recently as last February the MJO stalled out in Phase 7 before going back into the circle. So the Pacific Jet remained extended near record levels and we got our first -5 SD Greenland block linking up with the Southeast ridge with a big cutter and Toronto record snowstorm. Last February was a west based La Niña with a warm Nino 1+2. During January 2022 we got a stronger east based La Niña when the forcing made into the favorable phase 8. So with how strong the Pacific Jet currently is and it’s only October, would want to see a phase 8 at some point this winter in order to potentially weaken it with such a strong gradient between Siberia and the WPAC to south of the Aleutians. But won’t have any confidence in such an outcome until we get to within the short term. Since the default since February 2022 has been the MJO getting over to 6-7 and heading back into the circle and missing phase 8. Even when the RMM charts went into 8 during March 2023, the Pacific Jet wasn’t able to relax so the storm hugged the coast and the NE higher elevations cashed in instead. March 2023 was also a west based La Niña with warming in Nino 1+2. So even if we can see a phase 8 this winter, it’s no guarantee we will see what happed in January 2022 again as Nino 1+2 has remained warmer than 3.4 into this fall. As the EWBs have been stalling out further west.

46° w/ 0.40" of rain

Yeah very sad situation there; and good points about being an island. Saving grace perhaps is that the most-built areas of the island - around Kingston - was not as hard hit. But yeah as you say it's not like Katrina etc. where people can be driving there from other states to help with cleanup and rebuild; it's a much harder thing on an island like that, even for people that have a vested interest. I would encourage everyone to donate some $ - there are already charities collecting funds for use for Jamaica.

Just passed 2”. No thunder that I’ve heard here.

Good rainy morning all….i can never repay this forum for what it’s done for my cognitive health. As always ……

Looks like the storm might come close to major again. Really getting its act together this morning on both satellite and recon

Wow, that 136.8F annual maximum!

Right behind you at 1.86" and adding up very quickly. It is pouring.

At 2.02" Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk