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I like the massive day 9 trough in CA that was completely absent from 12z. Really makes me believe in these solutions.

It's a stretch here too

Euro weeklies look really good

yep, no more snow for us on the 18Z, everything shifted significantly north - northern New England and interior New York get a good snow from this run.

What markets? In the US - California has by far the highest percentage of EV sales of any state - and even there ICE vehicles are outselling EVs by over 3 to 1. And that was before the $7k tax incentive got removed recently.

Your post shows yesterday’s ext EPS predicting an 11 day long phase 8 for 12/14-24 averaging ~2.0 amplitude. The ext GFS is predicting a 12++ day long phase 8 for 12/13-24++ but with a much lower avg amp that with extrapolation would likely be headed to a sub 1.5 amp for the full phase 8 avg. Regarding the EPS prog, there hasn’t been an 11+ day phase 8 since back in Feb of 2010 (2/7-17). Regarding the GEFS prog of 12++ days, there hasn’t been a 12+ day long one since way back in Dec ‘75-Jan ‘76 (12/19-1/5)! There have been only two on record of 12+ days: the just mentioned one of 18 days and a 13 day long one 1/19-31/75. Also, the 15 long phase 8s (8+ days) have followed long phase 7s (9+ days) only twice out of the 15 cases although the two that did were two of the coldest. So, needless to say, I’m taking these very long phase 8 progs with a huge grain for now. Of the 15 long phase 8s at Baltimore, the ones averaging an amp of <1.8 (like GEFS has) were significantly colder in the E US on avg than those with an avg amp >1.8 (like EPS has). The GEFS-like sub 1.8 amp cases include the very cold outbreaks of Jan of 1985, Jan of 1988, Dec of 1989, and Feb of 2010 with 3+” snows in all (including historic snow in 2010) for all 4 in Baltimore for example. The other 3 sub 1.8 amp phase 8s had B or N temps. But half of the >1.8 amp phase 8s were warmer than normal! So, if there’s actually a very long phase 8, I’ll be rooting for one closer to the lower amp of GEFS than the higher amp of EPS due to better prospects for cold.

Ya Bob…muster up some of that old juice…but as you said not until the end of the week… at the earliest.

Yeah follow up storm on edge of waa snows is just more west and north so draws up a big slug of warm air so precip goes all liquid. Euro further south with baroclinic zone and develops low much further south and cuts it more east. Allows for good waa snows than a nice wraparound with low.

I don't have access to the study itself, but I wonder what all they include when calculating payback times. 6.1 months seems small. E.g. do they include: The energy to clear the forest, and grade the roads to the sites? The energy to build and install the additional power lines required to transport power from the generally-remote sites? The energy to run the vehicles to drive the workers to the sites? To provide their housing, food, etc.? In addition to the energy to build and transport the wind turbines - does it include the energy to build, transport, and run the cranes that erect them? The energy to mine the ore used for the steel for the turbines? The energy to create the trucks that mine said ore, to transport the ore to smelters, etc. ? Etc. etc. - probably thousands of components that could be included, that go into creating, installing, and running wind turbines ? (Obviously the same factors apply to all energy sources, not just wind) How far one goes with the energy required to do something ends up being a hard-to-define thing; the farther removed it goes from the end product the harder it is to gauge, since the uses of that energy end up overlapping with other uses (e.g. a given truck used to mine iron ore would mine ore used both for a wind turbine and for say an airplane). Nevertheless the fact that it's hard to measure doesn't mean it doesn't exist. There *is* a lot more iron, aluminum, etc. required to support wind farms; in no small part because they are mostly-redundant systems; they don't replace baseline systems (mostly nuclear, hydro, fossil) but instead are generally additive. With a number of only 6.1 months payback - I'm guessing they didn't go that far out the chain of dependencies. That number seems very small to me. I'm willing to be it's compiled by people who have a vested interest in making it as small as they can.

I’m feeling like I should break out of my doldrums and get my mojo going. See how things look late week and may get thread fired up.

End of day finally tried to clear up a bit right as the sun was going down.

It sure can. Keeps blowing my lighter out...

Shot around the 2nd and shot around 6th is how it gets there.

Wonder if 18z gfs can do something. It’s a more progressive look out west so I doubt we get enough cold air push

It's definitely at least a slight reversal though, right? I would say (just looking at my blues and greens ofc) that the front end of this threaded event looks a bit stronger and the possible follow-up event is also back. The overall synoptic evolution looks somewhat closer to what other models are showing. Combined with what chi storm was saying that's good enough for me

The data we want is at the top of Sideling hill, not the bottom

Oh yeah

Yes, Op now that I look at it. I thought it was the ensembles on Pivotal. Too any models, and I never thought that would ever come out of this weenie little mind of mine.

GFS still not playing nice on 18z

Borrowed this from @Carvers Gap. This is the most recent run of the Euro control run for the month of December. Not a bad look at all. Still will be a lot of back and forth but positive. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Beast mode

Volatility

The only thing I could see is the fast flow helping a system from over amplifying and if there's enough cold air in place we get some overrunning. That's prob the best we can hope for

I don't think the point was that there is no alternative, just that we are hooked on oil in so many ways that there simply is no way to fully transition away from it at this point. And as far as energy/power goes, we are a long ways from being able to fully rely on electric. Not to mention the challenges that the current AI race is adding to the mix, with the enormous need for power there.

This is about as strong a look we've seen for it to get into phase 8 in several years. I'd be surprised if it did not get there, and yeah, ensembles just never see a moderate-strong MJO wave impacts it seems. Its why so often here when we see a raging 3-4-5 forecast but the D16 ensembles look like January 94 you more or less know that look will be way off if that 3-4-5 wave verified.