All Activity

Oops. So, that’s why most others’ maxes are significantly warmer than mine. I inadvertently entered a different max temps contest than most. One other entrant @RodneyShas similarly lower maxes to mine. I wonder if he also thought it was just for June. And I saw people before me putting “June” on their entry, which further made me think the maxes also were for just June. If there’s any way you can remove my maxes picks, please do so. Otherwise, it’s ok. Maybe I’ll get lucky.

Instability looks marginal, but deep-layer shear is very good. I don't see any high-end potential here, but I would think that the updated Day 3 in an hour might contain a MRGL here.

RGEM was showing a big soaker, but now it shifted south. I see Euro just shifted a little south. It's still a very close call, but it seems to be going in the direction of the heavier rain missing to the south for Saturday morning to early afternoon with only some light rain up here.

Yeah, we got 0.08"- storms really fizzled as they came out of the foothills here last night around 10 PM, no good explanation. Continuous lightning and thunder to the west, walked the dogs quickly and took the plants in, then 20 minutes later just some light rain and poof.

Today was another day of furnace-like heat in France, Jersey, and the UK. The extreme heat will shift eastward over the next few days.

It's good analysis here but I would also caution for the other readers that this ridge's morphology has been somewhat unstable in the operational guidance - their respective ensemble means have at times actually implicated a warmer/less perturbed scenario which is interesting. I'm also noticing the end game has been correcting toward a warm numerical telecon values, so there may be some question about the rapidity in which the pattern breaks down - tbd. But as is... right. GFS has a stationary boundary dangling through the region heat never gets in here. Wouldn't take much of a bump and this cleans up considerable.

Maybe they will finally lower you from extreme drought.

T for BOS for pcpn June 1999, but not long after midnight on 7/1, crushed w/ TRW+!

So far, late June through the first 10 days of July resembles 1999. To me this is different from early Nino summer.

Tomorrow svr risk looks so-so. Once again, we see to be lacking in CAPE. MUCAPE struggles to reach 2000 anywhere. What time of year is this? Wind fields are ok w/ largely straight hodographs on the RRFS, but the NAM shows some messy loops at the lower levels. It's a fairly solid 500 s/w for late June and a 250 mb jet max as high as 145 kt moves right over the region tomorrow aftn, which is outstanding for a svr day here in the summer. 65 kt at 500 over SNE. HRRR looks more impressive that RRFS for "meaty" storms and coverage. Maybe an upgrade to SLGHT for some of region 06 or 13z Fri.

I'll take the heat if we can get some big storms.. ring of fire pattern would be fun

I do think region wide we'll be upper 80's to lower 90's and maybe even closer to 95 in the torch spots, but the most interesting aspect about the pattern is we could end up in a favorable position with respect to the ridge axis for EML advection and MCS propagation from the Great Lakes/southeast Canada!

The GFS and ECMWF both show the heat tempered in the NEUS. Ridge axis is too far W and the ridge will be "dirty" w/ lots of mid and high clouds spilling over it into the region. Also, frequent minor s/w in the NW flow will likely promote significant RW/TRW waves w/ weak FROPAs and sea breezes. GFSX MOS does not show BOS above 83 through Thu of next week. Western New England should have some 90s tho. So the big heat PT needs to be put on hold for now IMHO, but the tstm prospects look quite good and WxWiz should get plenty of his EMLs feeding into the region! Storms dropping from the due N can be really nasty in such a pattern. It does not happen often, but when they do, look out. Overnight wild LTG shows are common (thank WxWiz's EML!).

Thank God. Its been a while day since we've had rain. Another day without rain and we'd be crying drought again

More rain on the NAM. Good news for the nut job fertilizers. Not to mention the botanists transplanting their fufu trees.

Pretty interesting/weird how the GFS blossoms QPF in the Tennessee Valley region mid-week directly under the heart of the ridge

are you thinking about a previous job by any chance? I literally don't work in a warehouse..

Every NYPD cop is cheering this on

Looking like once it arrives the heat might be here to stay for a while according to the GFS.

CIPS has (for domains near/over us) June 4, 2008 and June 13, 2013 showing up for hour 60.

The GFS is still baking the heat into the area but the Euro/Euro AI are more reasonable looking. Still hot but 4-6 degrees cooler than the GFS is advertising. Looks like MRX has followed the Euro temp guidance for my area today vs the GFS yesterday. They had my high at 97 Wednesday during yesterdays forecast, today it's 93. The 12z GFS is showing 98 over my area Wed/Thur/Friday still but the Euro AI shows 90-92.

DCA: +3.0 NYC: +2.3 BOS: +2.1 ORD: +3.2 ATL: +2.1 IAH: +1.8 DEN: +2.5 PHX: +1.6 SEA: +2.1

The Paris-Montouris station, for which records go back to 1872, has recorded its first case of two consecutive 40°C (104°F) or above days. Paris-Jardin du Luxembourg topped out at 41.2°C (106.2°F). Jersey (Maison St. Louis: 39.3°C/102.7°F) and Switzerland (Basel: 38.0°C/100.4°F) set national all-time records. The UK (Merrifield: 36.7°C/98.1F) set a national June monthly record.