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That would be the storm of all storms in Tn

How am I supposed to complain on here if I'm outside in real life?

lol, what?

Got maybe 1/4" on top of the inch, from a band that had been sitting over me but now down to snizzle with fine flakes, a temp of 33 with dp of 32, and lots of melting going on. The coastal is sitting off the coast of VA.

At 1 pm, all the Long Island locations reporting p-type were reporting light snow. Whether the snow is accumulating is a different matter.

And I don’t know if this will happen, but the HRRR trend from 12 Z until now is to have more precip hanging back after like 3 to 4 AM.

Some people need to go outside before posting weather observations haha

Can't write "what went wrong" until the storm's over Also it's not more of a "what went wrong" as it is uncertainty in the forecast and forecasters choosing which way they wanted to go. If nearly every model shows one solution and then that doesn't even come close to reality, that's when I look into it more.

In order of verification over the years highest to lowest Heat - 100% Drought - 85% Extreme Cold - 25% Snow - 4%

I see 1.5" at UConn on this map? I didn't drive through there but drove through gurleyville which is just a mile east and no way there was 3" on the ground there.

The 12z Euro ensemble individuals show strong support for the deterministic run.

three shots of accumulating snow over the next week is the opposite of CAD.

yep, for 7 days out this may be the heaviest I’ve seen in NC even after taking ~1” off in some areas for today: there’s quite the falloff S of NC as ZR seems to take over

To be fair based on Central Park's measuring track record this could be the case.

Need to keep that HP position. Right now it prevents a cutter but scoot it east and a 1040 is going to lead to some bone dry weather.

Finally some flurries. I'm recording a T right now.

I think you’re starting to see some echoes now in NJ. HRRR really developed that in a couple of hours. That’s what to watch I think.

It is again worth noting that wx models have done a much better job of identifying cold fronts during the last few weeks, but they have been over-doing cold almost across the board.

Yeah last year and this year shows that cold air alone does not help. 1980s pattern.

You can see the broader precip shield beginning to expand and push northward.

A benchmark rainer on February 1?

Nice to see the snow hole the central counties shrink some with the more robust than expected snow shield developing back further last night. Unfortunately I was only the recipient of a light coating, or heavy dusting (whichever sounds better) with the 1-2” plus snows either falling a few miles away up on the Allegheny ridge to the west or the next county over to the east. So bit of a bummer. With that said, screw it I’m going all in on next weekend. For the first time this winter the southern stream looks involved with a shortwave coming out with Gulf moisture to tap and there appears to be plenty of cold air and decent high to attack. This has the look of a widespread and significant winter weather maker for a big chunk of the country. Whether that’s here or south/north of here is going to be the debate this week as models are changeable as per usual. 12z GFS buries this in the Deep South, Euro not quite as suppressed but still a C-PA miss to the south after the previous 0z run had the mix line in southern PA. Ensembles showed variability with some hits in the mix. Both 12z GFS and Euro AI’s are big hits that are backed up with their AI ensembles. So we’ll see, we’re way overdue for an actual big precip maker.

Same here, though some neighborhoods I passed in Brooklyn this morning were wet/slushy.

31 w/ lgt snow 2” new otg

Just grabbing some maps. The temps are also a big story. Modeling is still picking up a sharp cold shot right around 300 which is after the rain/snow/ice/sleet we are looking at. Some of the seven day temp departures, undoubtedly enhanced by potential snow cover, are impressive. I also added the accumulation maps for the Euro run.