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  2. mayjawintastawm
    Timing would be right, and if it's big in Castle Rock we benefit a bit from the upslope (house is at 5650'). 3 of the last 4 years it's snowed here just as the leaves were falling, which either helps or hinders leaf pickup depending on whether it melts before I try to bag them. We have two massive ash trees in the front yard.
  3. weatherwiz
    Here is the forecast from the GFS of what the split looks like. I did lie a bit, there is some displacement with one part of the split displacing more into Alaska. Can't post a gif (could make one but don't feel like it) but like you said, its rather brief.
  4. tamarack
    Along with white oak, hickories and hophornbeam, it's tops for BTU. Only the HH is available around here.
  5. weatherwiz
    I would have to hope people are looking more at just "charts" and what the tendency of the stratospheric AO is forecast to do. I mean its still pretty early in the season so the PV isn't particularly strong to begin with. Also, if you look at the structure and evolution of the structure (of course this is based off model forecasts) it does "weaken" and even looks to split but it does not become displaced really. Will this have some impact on the hemispheric pattern...sure, perhaps but enough of an impact or an influence that it needs headlines...don't think so
  6. CoastalWx
    I’m not trying to be a Debbie, but it has to be able to couple to the troposphere. I have seen nobody talk about that, only about how there’s a split. If you ask me, it’s a bit misleading… And then I saw one person talk about it could lead to a very sharp cold snap later in November. But that can happen regardless. Polar Vortex splits are meant to adjust the large scale pattern for awhile, not two days. All the stuff I’ve seen just seems very misleading to me and more of click bait type stuff. The irony is that the pattern that helps cause the split will lead to a lot of CONUS warmth. Judah actually agreed on that. This split would also have to fight off Nino forcing which may make it harder to couple to the troposphere. We could see a split have more meaningful impact as @40/70 Benchmark had alluded to come mid winter and beyond. But right now, many energy mets that I know are not sold on this being much or anything.
  7. bluewave
    This warm up into early November will give a boost to the fall rankings which are already around 15th warmest for our area since September 1st.
  8. kdxken
  9. Cobalt
    ..except for the 2 billion or so folks who rely on stable glaciers for irrigation, water supply. Also the 1.5 billion or so people who live within 10km of a coastline.
  10. forkyfork
  11. Snowcrazed71
    Fair enough. I do know what we're up against, but, I'm not writing it off it's definitely going to be a horribly warm winter.
  12. bluewave
    In terms of most people who have had much lower early season heating demand with such high energy costs these days it’s a big help to their finances. The average people I speak to off this forum has been very happy with how warm the winters have become since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. So this board is a real minority in terms of the general populace which would rather spend their winters in Florida than the Northern States. Internal migration has been to the sunbelt from the colder climates across the CONUS. But there has been shift to this pattern in the last few years.
  13. TauntonBlizzard2013
    November is going to look a lot like October. Just shave off ~5 degrees on average. Instead of 60, it’ll be 55, etc
  14. winterwx21
    I see after the late week 70s it looks like a minor cooldown for Halloween with high temps likely low-mid 60s. But a very warm week next week with 70s. In the long range the 2nd week of November looks like much cooler air that might end the growing season here.
  15. TauntonBlizzard2013
    The background state is about as bad as it gets for SNE. Not really sure how you can dispute that. I’m not pinning my hopes on some obscure feature to save us.
  16. Snowcrazed71
    Well.. not sure if Judah Cohen counts. He has mentioned this. Also one of the Mets here in Connecticut that I follow and listen to his morning live everyday mentioned this today of this possibility. I also follow a guy from Northeast weather... I've followed him for the last few years and I have to be honest, he has been pretty much right on with a lot of his research. He's not a clickbait guy. Now, I guess time will tell if this actually happens in mid-november. Maybe you're right, but you're also not a professional met, so for you to jump on me that quickly it's kind of rude LOL. But no feelings are hurt here :-) I guess we'll see what happens in mid-november. If I'm wrong, so be it. No loss for me, but if this does happen, it could get very interesting.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    They say a perfect environment for humans to thrive is a global temp 5-7F warmer.
  18. MJO812
    Its only October. Too early to say who will be wrong or right
  19. snowman19
    He’s going to be wrong again. Just like he was back in 2015
  20. CoastalWx
    Like who? lol. It’s going to lead to a warm November across the CONUS and then restrengthens in December.
  21. LakePaste25
    Guaranteed, take it to the bank that the vortex will not be even close to as west as 2009 in December in the monthly mean. The OLR coming out of the tropical pacific is already much further east-based.
  22. MJO812
    Thank you for posting. I thought you like Judah Cohen.
  23. weatherwiz
    It's so ridiculous. People are always trying to find something to latch on to.
  24. CoastalWx
    5 yr anny of the big blow in SE areas. One of the top wind storms of my life. Phil just dragging his sack all over.
  25. Snowcrazed71
    There have been quite a bit of legit mets with this info. But we shall see (it wouldn't be something we see until mid November).
  26. mitchnick
    Told ya'! Lol
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