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This sounds accurate. La Ninas are usually warmer than normal in February and torch in March. December and January are the best months for snowfall in a La Nina. Once you punt January (not saying we are, at least not yet) in a La Nina, you run into significant trouble for rest of winter. Now would be the month to cash in. In a La Nina, anything past end of January becomes more difficult.

It’s also incredibly easy to take the under right now too. Regardless of the look, we’ve minimized every potential

Hoping this band can hang out before shifting north. Looks like tomorrow afternoon and overnight is our next shot, will be happy with the low end of that.

Yea keep the winter vibes going…

We gotta be deep in the gutter for me to look at the RAP but it's also got some light stuff. Def wouldn't turn down a dusting to close the month

12z EPS teleconnections. The NAO and AO remain negative, albeit weakly, as the EPO goes deeply negative. The WPO also goes weakly negative. The PNA goes neutral to slightly positive. When I first started following weather output on the internet, I used to only look teleconnection graphics and the NOGAPS. I don't think I did any worse then than I do today in the long range. But as for the teleconnection package as a whole...great look and they rarely line-up that well. Let's see if we can resell this in.......

Followup: The full torch period MJO is now in as I had to wait for the reporting lag. It turns out that the MJO during the heart of the torch (12/23-27) wasn’t in a typically cold track after all. Instead of a typically cold in Dec counterclockwise track of 8-1-2 of moderate to weak amp (including near or inside circle left side), it tracked clockwise weak 7-6-4-3, an unusual Dec track that one would not associate with cold as it kind of went in reverse: 2025 12 23 -0.28945175 0.37228486 7 0.47157007 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 24 -0.12800699 0.45807526 7 0.47562456 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 25 0.16766728 0.36077648 6 0.39783412 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 26 0.17544751 -6.13679737E-02 4 0.18587054 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 27 4.42237742E-02 -0.35203809 3 0.35480496

He needs to take a break and let one of the students do the posting.

MU continues to make very...interesting posts. Needless to say, he's not enthusiastic over the advertised pattern in January. Meaning, he isn't buying it.

NAM brings us snow tonight

Can tell what type of yr its been so far when you really need the Reggie and the HRRR to be right.

Good news on the Lake Erie ice front. Recent warmth has brought total ice coverage down to less than 25% of normal to date (4% coverage versus mean of 13% for the date). All of the lakes are running a little behind normal, as of yesterday's analysis.

Won't see another once in 20yr IVT for a bit here, But GYX does have a map out, DE Maine jack AWT.

Visualized. NAO weakens and Pac trough crashes in pushing a ridge east. Still lots of time for this to switch back thought.

1-3” NYE… 1-3” Sunday We’ll take it. Better than cold and dry

Much better actually i think, I eat both, Cut the bodies, Cut off the heads clean and rinse, Recipe is simple for these, 2 tbl spoons Salt, 1c Flour, I place them in a zip lock, Shake them up and fry them in cooking oil, It makes them crispy, Supermarkets or fish mkts up here will carry them in season too. https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/236481/fried-smelts/

All that H off the coast will do is screw us.

Bam is above normal for February

DAB classic

Dumping snow in South Russell right now. Noticed that CLE bumped snowfall totals... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 1.5 feet. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, Geauga, and Lake Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact holiday travel. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest lake effect snow will persist near the lakeshore this evening into Wednesday morning. Another period of heavy lake effect snow will arrive Wednesday afternoon and overnight, impacting the entire area. Snowfall rates may reach 2 inches per hour at times Wednesday evening.

Snow squall conditions possible tomorrow night, per NWS. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 104 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 OHZ039>041-049-050-059-069-PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075-077- WVZ001>004-012-021-509-310200- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0028.251231T1800Z-260101T1500Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Belmont- Monroe-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene- Westmoreland-Fayette-Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Kittanning, Washington, Uniontown, Morgantown, New Philadelphia, New Castle, Malvern, Woodsfield, Weirton, Monaca, Canonsburg, Indiana, Salem, Monessen, Moundsville, Lower Burrell, Ellwood City, Waynesburg, Latrobe, New Martinsville, Beaver Falls, Aliquippa, Ford City, Murrysville, Wellsburg, Ambridge, Pittsburgh Metro Area, New Kensington, Butler, Follansbee, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Cadiz, East Liverpool, Steubenville, Fairmont, Greensburg, Columbiana, Carrollton, Wheeling, and Dover 104 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches. Snow squall conditions will be possible during the evening and overnight. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, southwest and western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X @NWSPittsburgh. && $$ 88

Interesting setup. Probably an inch or two type deal but nice refresher and possibly more with just a little better/sooner redevelopment.

How do they compare with sardines? I like sardines minus the heads. The chickens get those.

12z euro has a weak, brief inverted trough setup across C NH/SW ME as that H5 vortmax passes through.

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2006077759941210284 BAM says it perfectly IMO. "Don't try to rush this. It won't work." This is NOT a can kick pattern yet. Jan 15 and onwards has been the timeframe the better posters have been honking their horns on.