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  2. codfishsnowman
    Well at least here it's been the light kind that they say is great for the lawns
  3. H2Otown_WX
    Nice, your area jackpotted I think. Only around an inch here if I had to guess.
  4. vortex95
    Well, I should have checked through *all* latest models. The 00z RRFS does this, and the 00z ECMWF this. So partially salvage it? The sfc low is just off the S NJ coast now, and has yet to start to wrap up, and it passes about 80 mi SE of ACK. The solid ENE sfc gradient (for July) is still coming, so I guess what the RRFS and ECMWF are showing could happen?
  5. Jns2183
    East winds gave us the drizzle and stable atmosphere Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
  6. codfishsnowman
    Cef not even .25 and bdl .85 I think .4 around here? Thank God it's not snow lol
  7. gravitylover
    2 day total 7.5, using 3 sites within a half mile.
  8. Today
  9. vortex95
    "Diamond dust" rain???
  10. vortex95
  11. vortex95
    This is one of the worst short-range busts for rainfall I have seen. You go back a few days, and all global models has solid 1-3" at least up to the MA Pike and 3-6" widespread S of that! And then the difference between the 06/06z and 12z HRRR. Oooo, the HRRR brings it back N big time and the 3/12km NAM stay the course from 06z And now? W-T-...? KBED not even a drop yet. Virga storm! I know the event is not over yet, but too little too late it seems. Only swrn/srn CT verified well. Good thing this isn't winter, otherwise we'd have to drag this classic GIF out!! CoastalWx should post the same GIF but w/ the faces of ppl on the forum included (does he still have that GIF saved?).
  12. vortex95
    Mean trough position in the E UFN. So solid big WxWiz weenie tstm chances are there!
  13. vortex95
    Looks like we stay in semi-active to active period for the region UFN. Showers and tstms every day in some form in at least parts of region thru Sat and maybe Sun. GFS and ECMWF are a lot different for Sun. The GFS has a much stronger trough at 500 and actually develops a small nor'easter offshore. ECMWF nothing at all. The GFS solution suggests a lot of rain. Svr risk for the region highly dependent on where the sfc low tracks. Longer-range, it appears the mean trough position will remain in place in the E, so should be decent chances for some sig tstm events. Last July was quite good, but ugh, next to nothing in Aug, and quite cool much of the time. Actually had some cold air damning a few times IIRC!
  14. snowman19
    100%. The 30C isotherm is already east of the dateline and the EURO seasonal started showing this happening last month, projecting that the 30C isotherm will push all the way to 120E by November, which would be an all time record. I absolutely believe it given the huge WWBs we’ve been seeing since April. This year, unlike 2015, we have a complete trade wind reversal with WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs pushing well east of the dateline with no resistance….that is going to keep pushing the 30C warm pool east. We didn’t see that in 2015, in fact, we actually saw EWBs and the trade winds fighting back even up to this point in time…this year, not even close. The surface from region 3.4 to region 3, to region 1+2 is warmer and the subsurface is warmer than 2015 with more substantial WWBs and DWKWs. Region 4 is actually cooling now, also unlike 2015. The TC/typhoon parade projected to begin this month in the WPAC and the EPAC and the MJO progression is only going to reinforce it (WWBs, DWKWs) Wow:
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    July ECMWF run.. it has a warm bias but wow
  16. vortex95
    Good info. In weak flow when there is lots of storms firing and chaotic, the sheer number of mesoscale factors going at once inevitably leads to a very local environment that can support a supercell for a short time. FL this time of year, all those storms that fire daily, those isolated wind or tornado events you see, are due to the numerous storm interactions. But it's impossible to fcst this b/c such small-scale factors can not be accounted for in the models. It's so conditional and variable! In certain cases, you can get an intense tornado in wind profile that doesn't look conducive at all. This occurs most often when you have huge amounts of CAPE (5000+) and a weak front or boundary present. A storm can fire and if it deviates a lot (more than 90 deg) from the environmental wind flow by virtue of back-building along the front/boundary, it can become a strong supercell. So even though the environmental helicity is low, the storm-relative helicity is large, and an intense tornado can result. The two most striking examples of this was the Plainfield IL Aug 28, 1990 and Jarrell TX May 27, 1997 events. Both devastating F5s and the storms deviated a very hard right w/ CAPE ~7000 present.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Science forum bro. I don't think a -EPO can't happen.. that's more possible than historical analog suggests, but +PNA has been really hard to come by in this peak decadal -PDO or whatever is going on.
  18. GaWx
    Per The Long Paddock website, which hasn’t shown a new SOI daily since July 2nd: June/July SOI values have been subject to an incorrect data feed. The values will return after the data source has been replaced and values are recalculated. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
  19. GaWx
    The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues:
  20. so_whats_happening
    The difference in overall depth of the warm anomalies looks to be an artifact of the -PDO still being around. During the 2023-24 Nino this was centered around 130-140W. We also are lacking a significant negative anomaly region developing near the Dateline. I gotta ask the question though are we seeing Nino take on a new form with SSTs the way they are globally?
  21. vortex95
    Patricia's 872 mb was estimated. Recon timing was such we missed its absolute peak. One got 880 mb and the next 879 mb, but in between those (it was over 6 apart, maybe 12?), Patricia was still in RI mode, and then had slightly weakened a bit on satellite when recon measured 879 mb. So we know it was lower that 879 mb. 872 mb was decided on somewhat subjectively, but it easily could have been lower than that. I have noticed when it comes to world records, the WMO will avoid estimates as to the official record, and estimating a world record has it own logistical and social issues! Something similar occurred w/ Isabel in 2003. Its first recon was cancelled and it was the same day it peaked intensity. When the first recon got there the next day, Isabel had undergone an ERC and the eye diameter had almost doubled, yet they still found 920 mb / 140 kt. In the BT data, Isabel is listed as 915 mb / 145 kt the day before the recon, but given what we know about ERCs and how much the eye pressure typical rises in a cycle, I bet Isabel actually had a min pressure 900-905 mb! Then Isabel went on to be the best example of an annular hurricane in the Atlantic we have see since the satellite era began!
  22. so_whats_happening
    Im not going to play catch up since I have last been on here but here is TAO from May through July 4th, I'll be taking out May next update around mid month.
  23. CPcantmeasuresnow
    4.59 inches here.
  24. Brasiluvsnow
    Had to drain the pool twice today ,,,just did it again after I walked the dog,,,,and still raining here in New City
  25. wxmeddler
    Apparently there are water rescue calls starting to appear in Manassas.
  26. CPcantmeasuresnow
    At 4.59 inches now in Highland Mills. Hopefully most of this hit the reservoirs.
  27. so_whats_happening
    If anyone finds discrepancies in the numbers please let me know. For the deductions for June I picked 7 stations to knock down 1 point and 6 stations for RJay.
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