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For much of NC even with the rain we were still below what a normal week should produce this time of year. So it makes sense that t worsened. I can guarantee that the 0.82” I've received THE ENTIRE month has done nothing but worsen the drought. This is our 4th in last 8 months I have recorded less than 1” of rain at my house for the entire month. Some areas saw normal rainfall as would be expected for a week in April and that would stabilize the drought but you won’t see improvement until you see above normal amounts.

So we are at the equivalent of Memorial Day 2025?

Joes Mama?

I’m not saying that I expected my county (Chatham) to improve a category. But the bulk of my county worsened a category despite 0.5-1” of rainfall in a good portion of it. I believe reporting lag was the reason for a good portion of that worsening of a category. Some other counties in GA as well as in AL, SC, and S NC were in a similar boat. Example: 4 counties in NE GA. It’s not just my county. This isn’t meant to be a criticism as reporting lag can’t be prevented…it’s totally normal.

Yeah "shutout" is relative. If Stowe VT gets, say 80" in a winter, that's considered a shutout for them. I would consider 2015-2016 basically a shutout for the new england.

Did pretty well here with .68" rainfall last evening into the overnight. Total for April: 3.68", not bad.

Wow that was taken just after 9pm... not even late. They sure tear things up easily when they want to, I keep my head on a swivel in the tree fields but especially this time of year

.26 rain and fucking cold. This sucks.

Farmingdale only starts in 1999 so several warmer rankings prior to that would be missing. Islip finished 12th warmest. The strong onshore flow kept LI cooler in the rankings than NYC. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012-04-29 49.8 0 2 2010-04-29 49.0 0 3 2025-04-29 48.6 0 4 2024-04-29 47.9 0 5 1973-04-29 47.5 0 6 2023-04-29 47.3 0 - 2016-04-29 47.3 0 7 1991-04-29 47.1 0 8 2002-04-29 47.0 0 9 2021-04-29 46.4 0 - 1977-04-29 46.4 0 10 1976-04-29 46.3 0 11 1985-04-29 46.1 0 12 2026-04-29 46.0 0 - 2022-04-29 46.0 0 13 2020-04-29 45.8 0 - 1998-04-29 45.8 0 - 1995-04-29 45.8 0 14 2008-04-29 45.7 0 15 1999-04-29 45.6 0

Popes brain a box of rocks

You still haven’t apologized for your fake criticism of my guess that NYC, LGA, and JFK would struggle to reach 50” of snow which I made several years back.

My theory for this is that it's hard for 1" of rain to be enough to drop a county a whole category when much of the state has been in some form of drought for 3+ months... FFC mentioned in their discussion today that even the 1-2" in store for central GA Saturday will not "put much of a dent in the drought." I think we will need at least multiple days/weeks of good sustained rainfall to improve by enough to drop a category. This image posted on FFC's Twitter I think does a nice job explaining... we would need over 10" in a month to get back to near-normal. Regardless, I do expect some improvement in next week's update.

I have learned the hard way to not mock alternative viewpoints. I know I teased Chuck about the -PDO following strong El Nino push back, but that was just because the data is supportive of it right now. He could ultimately be right, but we will need to confirm that posthumously...hence my sarcasm.

Anyone seeing rain/drizzle? Up here in wretched Hazleton today, and of course I'm getting rained on. If there's one place I hate, it's Hazleton. The weather is always shitty in one form or another up here.

No one was referring to NNE. Complete pattern change Mr NNE (actually (CNE) coastal boy 2026-04-14 80 48 64.0 15.3 2026-04-15 84 51 67.5 18.4 2026-04-16 86 53 69.5 20 2026-04-17 74 49 61.5 11.6 3 2026-04-18 55 46 50.5 0. 3 2026-04-19 53 37 45.0 -5.6 2026-04-20 52 35 43.5 -7.5 2026-04-21 49 34 41.5 -9.8 2026-04-22 47 34 40.5 -11.2 2026-04-23 68 44 56.0 3.9 2026-04-24 59 40 49.5 -2.9 2026-04-25 53 35 44.0 -8. 2026-04-26 59 42 50.5 -2.6 2026-04-27 68 37 52.5 -0.9 2026-04-28 66 40 53.0 -0.8 2026-04-29 65 45 55.0 0.9

Well, everything was initially "bunk", until it wasn't. I have no issue with it, as long the presenter is transparent about it. He admitted it's a pioneer concept, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's incorrect.

I'm going to make up stuff too and then say you wont find much (probably because its bunk).

Extreme Drought % (SE Region): VA - 8.07% AL - 47.93% NC - 54.87% FL - 78.51% SC - 79.03% GA - 80.72% Extreme drought grew significantly in North Carolina and South Carolina. Georgia continues to have some of the worst drought in the region, with fires growing in the southern counties. While we have received a few days of overnight rainfall now, it will be difficult for 1-2 inches of rain to overcome 3 months of drought. My area in Atlanta has received 1.75" of rain in the last 3 days, with hopefully more coming Friday overnight into Saturday. I do expect some improvement in next week's map.

All ribbing aside, I love the fact that you think outside of the box...I think that is necessary because if the "inner box" conceptualizations were working, we would have gleaned a modicum of skill with the seasonal forecasting arena.

it’s interesting that Tue/Wed lower trop synopsis in there considering the local hemisphere

It may be that the SSW in late November set off a chain of events that allowed the Northern Stream to weaken enough by late February for the KU BM event. This almost reminds me of a dance between the Northern Stream and Southern Stream. When the NS becomes too overpowering, it’s like it keeps stepping on the feet of the STJ dance partner suppressing it too much. When the Northern Stream backs off just enough and allows the STJ to lead, then it opens the door for great Benchmark KU events like in late February.

Rainfall data from Easton site-

I believe that there’s notable reporting lag. I don’t mean just that the map is as of 8AM of two days ago (4/28). Note that not a single area of the SE got better on the map released today vs the map released one week ago (in addition to many areas getting worse). See the maps below. I don’t see how that’s reflecting reality. Based on looking at rainfall reports across the SE for prior to 8AM on Tue there was moderate to heavy rainfall in portions of especially N AL to S NC during the several days prior to April 28th. Despite that, some of those counties actually got worse vs the map as of the prior weekly map. I believe that due to the time needed to gather reports that there’s reporting lag of perhaps a few days. In other words, these maps as of Tue at 8AM are in reality probably reflecting closer to, say, an average of 8AM on Saturday or whatever. Tue at 8AM is just the deadline to get reports in so they have time to compile the map for the Thu AM release. In reality, there’d be reports coming in before Tue…say on a Saturday for example. And then that Sat submission could have been based on a Fri or Thu observation. Map released one week ago: Map released today: no improvement anywhere and worse in many spots: not realistic imho…example much of my county got nearly 1” of rain on Sunday (heaviest since March 6th), well before Tue 8AM deadline for submission, and yet my county got a worse designation!

Another cool day with a mix of rn/sn shwrs on tap.