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WB 0Z HRRR at 48 hours

That would be more like what we’re accustomed to. Would still like to see the euro stop going north

After the storm, the GFS is at or below freezing nearly every day for the rest of the run

Looks like a touch of aurora tonight if you really squint

QUickly down to 10 here.

That is correct

Not if you plowed snow. Sold my plow after that season. 14hrs/2hr break/24 hrs/ 3hr break. Plowed for whole week on that one. Picked up lots of new business because other plowers could not get to their customerd Windy as F plowed my way thru 5&6ft ft drifts getting truck stuck multiple times. Keep wondering when it was going to stop

18z UKIE

Because when most of us have been thinking this is too good to be true for days now are ready to flip at the first sign of bust lol. If the 00z goes back we’ll be like what 18z

Standard message: for anyone making a briefing package I strongly recommend including a "Created on: [insert date/time here]" and "Do not use for decision making after [insert date/time here". That way people know how stale the information is.

From my sister in Maine:

Webb gave his view on why the Model's trended North. The backing west of the trough into Western Canada. I noticed that awhile ago and was thinking that may be having an effect. It's on X if anyone cares to look. We need a stronger press from HP to our NW or due North to Counter. If not, we may find ourselves firmly in the great Valley warm slot while hefty Snows fall west, North and East of us. Mid and West Tennessee may come out well with this after all , while the great Valley doesn't. Areas east of the Apps may get enough Cad for them to do well. I've saw that Scenario play out many times. Not being a Debbie downer, just presenting a pretty real possibility.

I would be absolutely shocked if the mix line makes it past Philly. Even mixing to Philly seems unlikely with the sheer amount of cold air we’re working with.

If I understood the brief correctly, 00z 1/22 runs would be the first to ingest that data?

Does anyone remember how much QPF fell during February 5th-6th 2010 storm? I know we had good ratios but couldn't find any data.

Why does Everyone Jump on one run just don't understand 3 days still to go you are acting like it's Friday already modeling sat

Down to 7 here. Already hit the forecast low. No wind and snowpack is helping with the radiational cooling.

Anything look off? Trying to keep expectations tempered while still allowing for the possibility of the real monster, a la UKMET or 18z euro. The quality got cucked by the forum image compression I think.

Didn’t ATL get a 4-6” storm like… last year?

This would be the thing that causes that 4 day reshuffle. May it fall in our favor.

I think it is just simply flying to its destination tonight. Maybe it will collect "some" data, but we requested recon into that feature (plus into the Gulf and Atlantic) for the next few days. We know the current plan is to do a sampling mission starting tomorrow at 00Z.

You're good, Itchy. Our hopeless hopium is the real enemy. Can't wait for my quarter inch of ice!

some of the individual members on the EPS were genuinely concerning. Not just mixing, but there were a few pure ice storm solutions. I think everyone in this forum would be content with warning level snow --> a couple inches of sleet --> maybe some snow on the backside

I can see 18z ukmet through 66hrs on the Pivotal free site. San Diego low opening much more quickly, northern energy pushing significantly further westward into Alberta. A big-time phase seems imminent on that model.

Looking more and more likely. I bought into the “hype” and every outlet and met I follow was saying is was gonna be a massive winter storm. I’m in Atlanta and was never expecting snow, but heavy sleet and lots of ice. Looking more and more like it’s gonna be a cold rain and a dud. I’m ready to wave my white flag and call it quits. Every time I buy all in and start getting hyped, it always goes north. It’s so freaking impossible to get a good winter event down in these parts anymore. What an absolute waste of moisture. Atlanta just can’t have anything nice anymore. I miss the days of when we’d get 4-8” snows almost every few years. Now we’re lucky if we get 1” every 7 years, sigh… .