All Activity

Had some decent rain come through around 4. Picked up .12”. Only the 6th of the month and have 3.81” of rain. More than I think I had all last summer.

Multiple fatalities in Union City

From mid 60's to mid 50's to low 50's to now upper 40's... I am beyond pissed off right now. The warmth is delayed and almost denied, but the cold push will be right on schedule. Saturday A chance of showers before 7am. Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

By far the worst week of weather I remember in a very long time.

Finished with a nice 1.10" from this morning. Nice soaker. May get a little more later tonight but looks like the 2nd round will die off mostly before reaching the QCA.

Yes. If anything, I've seen time and time again this winter modeled warmups or cold breaking down get muted once it gets closer in time from Michigan eastward. The warm west/cold east pattern has dominated since November, so eill be interesting to see if its mire of the same in late March.

Not one to crap on the spc but kinda baffled they didn't issue a watch. They've shown multiple times they're willing to issue one for lone supercells causing tornadoes but this time just didn't.

30.9° with ZL

Big boomer rolling through. Loud cracks.

Here's mine a few minutes ago.

I feel bad for the people effected, but the video with the frozen lake in the foreground is classic.

Still lots of ice on the hill in Burlington CT...

The lakes are shrouded in fog coming off the ice. At this rate the urban lakes will be ice free in a week or so. So far we’ve picked up under a 1/10” of rain. Far cry from the 0.50-1.00” totals advertised a few days ago.

The beginning of a series of rains has commenced. TWN has me at 19C/68F for Sat which would be seriously impressive with the snowpack and amt of ice on the lakes. I say 5% chance of verifying. WUN has 15C - I'll go with 16C prediction. If I somehow get to 20C (2%) that would be the 2nd earliest in modern records just 1 day behind Mar 8 2000 and 3 days ahead of Mar 4 2024. Storms are on tap during nox (overnight) with the temp rapidly rising to 13C. I'll be taking them seriously; my worst storms are now in early spring.

Yea. Both sups this evening and QLCS later after dark could produce.

I mean 11-12 days out….that’s a tough one imo..especially with cold lurking.

Looks like DT called out Jays Wintery Mix on Facebook for posting the HRDPS and referring to it as the NAM, you hate to see it @Ji

Overall this winter for the H5 pattern, I’ve seen it missing strongly at times in both directions. Now if we’re talking 2m temperatures, WxBell maps are cold biased.

Shorter wave lengths change the importance of various teleconnections. Some have difficulty accepting that there are no universal patterns that apply at all times. Some on X/Twitter were insisting on the importance of a PNA+ ahead of the recent blizzard. Undoubtedly, they must be confounded that it occurred with a strongly negative PNA. But not those who understand the synoptic patterns. During the second half of February, a PNA- is more conducive to big Northeast snowstorms.

guess you can write off next winter for the Midwest.

so, I've got to drive to Greenville SC on the 17th/18th and taking I81-77-85, any chance I run into any weather (as it looks now) along my journey? also be returning the 20/21st... thanks in advance for those who dive deep into the LR.

I haven't seen motion in a MI tornado like that before. The cloud of debris and dust at :37 looks like the condensation part. Fiercer than Dexter and Gaylord!

Got enough teeny "flakes" to almost cover the ground, but our daughter's flight PHL-PWM came right on schedule.

Wow, snow is just banding over your area now. Bet you end up with at least 8". Long live March!

EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again