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it's a sup day, even around here.

Yup.. exactly . Running a sprinkler merely wets the top soil . Need rain to prevent fert burn . How many lawns have we seen over the years where the landscapers drop fert, and then it doesn’t rain for a week plus and bakes in the high sun angle. By then the damage to the lawn for the summer is done and they are torched and/ or die in many spots. By the same token don’t want an inch in a heavy downpour in 10 minutes . It’s tricky

Good point, guess I was more so referring to sups but yes models have been consistent in showing that. Definitely some touch and go to it. 15z HRRR wants to fire a mean storm over N Lasalle Co around 00z, so first hints of maybe some more initiation in NE IL.

I'd worry though about a heavy thunderstorm washing it away vs throwing some hose water on it right now.

There still seemed to be some Nina like influence that year though. December was mild like you would expect in a Nino but it came with Nina like tendencies which made the east very warm that month. 2014 seems like the last Nino that really had the classic summer to winter progression IMO.

i'm with kev on this, you don't want to rely on irrigation to get the fert into the soil - you want actual rain, more than a 1/4 inch. that's a lot of water, and relying on a well in a steiny pattern is risky

One thing is for sure, the STJ is going to be on roids. The PMM has gone severely positive. Combine that with a strong/super El Niño and watch out

Looking at some initial signs for next winter JAMSTEC April update includes first DEC-FEB forecast.

beer?

We get bowing segment remnants from nw il and s wi sups

Snow in May...? May see some flakes early next week. I have no desire for A/C weather. Have not turned it on yet, but may need to this week. The polar vortex split attempt (wave-2) that occurred back in early Feb will significantly impact our large-scale wx pattern in late Apr & May as the circulation & temperature anomalies from it propagate into the troposphere, leading to increased high-latitude blocking (-NAO/-AO) https://x.com/webberweather/status/2042246921671336290?

Another thing to consider is the dry ground almost coast to coast. May add some warmth to those numbers unless it turns wet. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Ya cuz water from your well/reservoir, and water from the sky are different…? It’ll due in a pinch... put the stuff down.

news to me

That doesn’t water in fertilizer .

Do you own a hose or sprinkler?

With how warm it has been since early March, I'm surprised there were still spots that hadn't reached 80 yet this year. My first 80 was March 10. While a Greenland block means cold May, I highly doubt a -2 to -4 monthly temperature is going to verify. Keep in mind, May 2023 came in at -1.5 and June 2023 at -2.6 at PHL, compared to 1981-2020 normals. We haven't seen that cold at that time of the season since 1985. If this verifies, it would be the coldest at this time of the season in over 4 decades. Probably not going to happen.

80 here

Thanks guys! Both of those are great.

I'm not so sure about that. 2015 was a warm summer and especially fall, and there was no nina or -PDO influence. If anything, that was a solid +PDO year.

Feeling more like a Chicago split right now but will see

Approaching 80. July in April.

EPAWA weather outlook for May

* All time April record at MSP was broken in 2018 with 15.8” during the 4/13-16 blizzard. Brilliant blue skis and bright sun also appeared the next morning.

Just too nervous about getting Steined to drop the fert. Certainly can see how it may storm this week, but can easily be total Stein too . Wringing of hands