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Let’s do this!!! lol

I would laugh if the gfs ends up the most SE out of all 12z models

Watch the 00z euro verify now.

WB 12K NAM is a miserable, cold rain for most. At least it brings drought denting rains and an energized storm through the area.

Right. They are pretty close to the all time record between 6” snowfalls. i don’t think people truly understand how bad it’s been around here

That's what she said.

There’s no chance they’re getting close to 6 inches in this one.

I know it’s weird how that’s been happening.

We had this a few times last year…models becoming more divergent inside of 4 days. Seeing the euro go so flat at 06z to almost whiffing and then seeing monster amped solutions at the same time from other guidance….

Let’s get Boston to that 6” futility record.

Don’t look at the NAM…massive torch for everyone including the Poconos. I’m writing it off as the NAM being the NAM. Just posted my first call on my page, I think the Lehigh Valley sees 1-3” followed by a wintry mix and rain.

Reggie looks good.

Flake quality increasing overhead.

Seeing the snow showers yesterday got my winter juices flowing... up until then I really wasn't engaged. Im not predicting any sort of accumulations on Tuesday but I'm sorta pumped to potentially see some flakes falling

RGEM a bit stronger. Elevated interior snows NOP.

Yeah I don’t think anyone denies the H5 improvements over time. And I think we forget how off and how coarse the solutions were at d5+ over a decade ago. I almost feel like there’s too much resolution in the long range combined with the increasing error and you start ending up with more chaos with the deterministic solutions and we start overanalyzing details like QPF and temps too far out.

That dry pocket was heading this way and I was like nope, not today ma nature and she filled it back in.

The Ravens snow game was that day. Unforgettable snowstorm for these parts.

ICON is solid for many. I think it looks a lot like Ray's map IIRC.

Winners and losers so far. Parts of southern Iowa are getting hosed by a persistent dry pocket that models absolutely did not show at all.

$20 says Partkon mesonet site gets its first inch. Every mile counts in these set ups Most epic early season forecast boom in my life. Forecast was 2"-4" of snow in western Carroll County and I got 8". We also got two NFL snow games that day.

Hard for me to get excited about this storm for anyone in New England just yet. We are still a couple of days from the southern component of this storm from forming, and there's still three different camps of thought on how it develops and tracks. I feel like Sunday morning is when we will get some consensus, when we start to get into the range of the high-res models sorting things out. That being said I feel like there's more of a chance of this storm being suppressed and progressive and missing most of the area instead of it being overly amped and flooding New England with cold rain. I don't think the SE ridge is going to be the main influence on this storm...

Saw flurries yesterday and last night for the 5th or 6th time this year, which is a good sign. 32° currently under a winter weather advisory tonight here in Augusta County northwest of Staunton.

12z ICON was close to you too.

y'all enjoy. I'll just take the rain.