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Yesterday's daily mean temperature at MVL was -1F . -27 daily departure. -12.4 on the month.

This time of year, these departures are what you dream of to get snow, and we’re screwed again. It’s like the same movie over and over playing on repeat for years. So yeah, I am a little annoyed. And I’m not sold on anything good in the second half of this month with that look on some of the ensembles. It’s just getting to the point where I’m absolutely beyond frustrated. I hope to God this weekend works out.

Through 12/8/2025 monthly departures BOS: -7.7 PVD: -7.8 BDL: -8.8 ORH: -8.3

Very true, lol

Ginxy may be the only one that loves snow in someone else’s yard as much as his.

KMPV has set 2 records in the past week and I think today will be #3. Last week's -8° and -10° yesterday before midnight. Looks like this morning's -15° is 1° short of the record set in 1989.

That's the most important sentence. I don't think anyone would say this if fast flow led to numerous minor to moderate events over the last few years. We let the past cloud our judgement in the present. What makes us think that a slower pattern wouldn't lead us to the very same desolate road SNE has been on through the 2020s? Sure, maybe it would enhance the odds of phasing, but that doesn't mean it'd phase where we need it, and where we need it to can be very different depending on where you sit in this region. We'd just be placing the meteorological risk of a fail in a different basket. Winter tracking is brutal because all of us have our biases and defense mechanisms whether they are external or internal. It's always been about snow. It will always be about snow. Snow rules everything around us.

I get it...100% and believe me...I'm pissed off too. But there comes a point where expectations versus reality become blended and that's when expectations start becoming well...unrealistic. And this is where for the most part, some people are kind of doing it to themselves by getting suck into guidance which goes bonkers in the medium range and developing a sense as that is a possible expectation. And then marrying extended EPS charts because they show deep blues at H5 and correlating that to potential and expecting active times. It sucks...we're in a cycle in which it just sucks here but we will break out of it eventually...have some phenomenal years for a several year stretch and then revert back to this.

I feel like the knives are a little sharper when regions south of us are getting multiple events and SNE is skunked. It’s like Ray being happy with 5” if Scoot and Kevin miss out, but if they get 20+ and he gets 10” he gets irritable.

It’s true, ultimately we are all hyper narcissists who only care about snow IOBY’s. That’s it, full stop.

I think most of us are, lol. Nobody complained during our warm/snowy winters...2012-13 or 2016-17.

I prefer it warm if we're not going to snow or keep snowcover-rather go out and walk and get away from the in laws lol

Unapologetically, it’s 100% cozy vibes for me, engendered by cheesy Xmas movies. The holiday just doesn’t seem real for me when we are torching during it.

I'm in that group.

Low of 5 this Morning and day 8 of continuous snow cover. Not a bad streak from 2.5 inches of snow.

I feel like while the climo argument does ring true, it’s a kind of a coping mechanism. One can’t deny that for the past few seasons, probably more, we have been AN for December. Climo or not we have been solidly BN this month and it is snowing 100’s of miles to our south. Objectively that is a fail. And it’s not complaining or canceling winter. It’s just a clear analysis of where we stand right now while weighing our BN canvas

Snow is serious biness, Right now, I'm enjoying the balls cold weather while many do not, But this really helps to maintain a pack when you get the ground to freeze up before getting the snow to insulate.

DCA low of 20F. No teens yet.

wouldn't be surprised to see 20:1+ in any good fgen banding with the saturday event

We finally have a very cold pattern with multiple chances....but if they don't produce, the knives are out even fiercer. This definitely proves it's all about the snow though....we've said it for years. 90% of the forum doesn't care if you are no longer in a torch regime or if you are -10 departures on the month if it isn't going to snow.

It doesn't help that the past 4 years have been below to insanely below average, getting porked in every possible way. And here we are again finding new ways to miss snow, so definitely a lot of angst in SNE for sure. I understand why meteorologically we are missing out, but never realized that for an area that averages 45-50 inches per year that we have to get lucky, just to hit average. I always assumed that it was the other way around, 2014/15 was luck....hopefully we snap out of it soon and we end up running the table the rest of the year, but the hangover from the past 4 years is hanging on and will be tough to snap out of

Per the quite fallible model consensus: The -WPO looks to easily be the strongest in Dec since 2013. Other strong -WPO (sub -1.00) Decembers: 2013, 2010, 2009, 2005, 1999, 1995, 1989, 1980, 1976, 1975, 1966, 1961, 1956, 1955, and 1954. So, Dec of 2025 has a good shot at making the top 20% strongest -WPOs. How was the subsequent Jan WPO for these 15? Negative WPO Jan: 2011, 1996, 1981, 1977, 1976, 1962, 1957, and 1956 (8 of the 15) Neutral WPO Jan: 2010, 2000, 1955 Positive WPO Jan: 2014, 2006, 1990, 1967 So, these strong -WPO Decembers were somewhat biased toward -WPO Jan with twice as many -WPO Jans as +WPO Jans The current model consensus *fwiw* suggests there a good chance we don’t end up with a -EPO for Dec as a whole with a lean toward fairly neutral to potentially +EPO when averaged out. How often have there been strong -WPO Decs without a -EPO? - -EPO Dec: 2013, 2009, 2005, 1989, 1980, 1976 - neutral EPO Dec: 2010, 1995, 1966, 1956, 1955 - +EPO Dec: 1999, 1975, 1961, 1954 So, Dec EPO was pretty balanced for strong -WPO Decembers Monthly WPO: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data