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Probably more likely than normal that we see some snow. Very volatile weather pattern though

Icon south again basically in line with euro now.

Always reliable back-end snow.

Split forcing between the Maritime Continent and the Western Hemisphere appears to be causing an interference pattern resembling a phase 6 in early December. It could also be why the models have been showing so much volatility between runs over the last week as we head into December. A Northeast Pacific +TNH with a a cold upper low centered near Hudson Bay more closely resembles a phase 6 composite. So trying to guess what composite or pattern we end up with in mid to late December is anyone’s guess at this point. We will just have to let things play out next few weeks to see which area of forcing eventually wins out.

You must be hating life.

Snowing pretty good.

Verbatum, this from GYX reads like it would be an 8-hour storm. I thought it was moving more slowly than that. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Tuesday Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

Just looking at the euro, 925 is actually out of the SW prior to the storm. Gets it to near 1c. Feel like any snow is at the tail end around here when it drops to near freezing.

US 22 W in Gallitzin is closed. Sounds like a squall blew through and collected a ton of cars. In other news, water is wet, the sky is blue, and the Eagles offense FN STINKS.

Safely in New Jersey. Didn't see any flakes on the way out, thought we might. Man it’s brisk out there.

Keep the flurry of posts coming. When your on a flurry it says good things usually is being shown on the models!

Nope.

It can park there for all of January & February if like.

BWI: 10.2" DCA: 6.7" IAD: 12.1" RIC: 5.5" Tiebreaker (SBY): 5.8"

18Z 3K NAM backed off a bit from its prior few runs, down to a "mere" 8.2" for Madison by 18Z (noon CST) Sunday. Even that would be exceptional for before December 1st. However the 15Z RAP was all in on a top-end big dog with 15.5" at the same forecast hour.

Potential for two top 10 November snowfalls in the same year in South Bend. Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for SOUTH BEND AP, IN Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1893-12-01 to 2025-11-26 1 20.5 1977-11-26 0 2 18.0 1911-11-03 1 - 18.0 1911-11-02 1 4 14.6 1977-11-25 0 5 14.3 2025-11-10 0 6 13.6 1951-11-07 0 7 13.5 1930-11-27 0 8 13.4 2014-11-14 0 9 13.0 1930-11-26 0 10 12.3 2014-11-13 0

BOX keeps insisting elevation event . Do not agree totally on that . Especially North of 90 An interior/higher-elevation mainly snow with lower-elevation/coastal plain wet, gloppy snow-to-rain scenario remains a best guess as to precipitation types;

Looks like it's hung up in CNE at 72h....18z Mon....we really want that further south for maintaining snow down to BOS to MMK line unless the mechanics of this change a bit. One of the things that happens if you drive the height field lower over us prior to that approaching shortwave, is that it creates more confluence when that shortwave approaches. We saw a bit of this on some prior runs a few days ago when that high was kind of sticking near CAR longer before finally retreating....I made the comment that some areas could get a good front-ender even if it flipped. The trend has been away from that for several cycles now, but if it trended even a little back toward that, it would make a huge difference....particularly for people closer to the coast and further south. I don't think it's a big deal over the deeper interior.

Weeklies

Enjoy that--i only saw them once. Great show. I think it was Paul O'Neil's last tour before he died.

It was more like 2.5-3 overnight here…stopped at some point then started back up around 730am. 5” measured since 930 when it was shoveled. It is really good out there. Last year thanksgiving weekend was best in years, but this is better… .

Cold is coming