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I had a high today of 68 after a low of 46. We're getting a lot of clouds throughout the day which surprised me. Lots of hay fields being cut around the area. I see some of the models are showing a possibility of another strong front in about 8 to 10 days.

It’s lots of 70’s to near 80 on a few days and 50’s at night .

Looking at the 12z Euro, it doesn't look good for warmth over the next 15 days. I have been following the Euro and GFS progs for the past 6 weeks or so, and it is quite obvious to me that the GFS for the intermediate and long range consistently overstates 2m temps at 18z time frame for most of us. It appears that the warm bias is still there in this model. Just look at today's differences between the Euro and the GFS at 18z times for the next 15 days.

I will gladly trade above average late September for below average August. Seems like an obvious win to me. .

Not really. If last year was a real la nina, then the Nino 1+2 region would not have been in a moderate, borderline strong el nino state. I wouldn't consider last year a la nina. I would consider it a neutral, albeit not in a traditional sense.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with a few showers possible in places. Highs will top out mainly in the upper 60s. Thursday could be briefly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s. A scattered shower or thundershower is possible Thursday night into Friday as a cold front pushes through. September 1-15 is on track to achieve a solid cool anomaly. Since 2000, there have been nine years that saw a cooler than normal first half of September. Two-thirds of those years went on to record a warmer than normal second half of September. Only two of those years (2017 and 2019) wound up with a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above. Overall, for two-thirds of those years, the cool start was sufficiently cool to produce a cooler than normal monthly anomaly. The last year that saw both a cooler than normal first half and second half of September was 2009. Prior to that, it was 2001. The last year to record a cooler than normal first half of September followed by a warmer than normal September was 2024. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was -13.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.461 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.3° (0.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

V E R Y lol

We didn't know it at the time but the contest was basically over on June 25th. One later tie occurred on July 26th. I guess there is a faint chance of a higher value later but very faint indeed.

I topped climo last year, last time was 2018-2019. 2022/2023 and 2023/24 were horrific years in the single digits. I am thinking we have things still moving around, a bit early to make an official prediction for upcoming winter.

You are missing the point. Harbaugh didn't make the decision to punt based on any input from Jackson. He literally defended it by saying he trusts his defense in that spot. Oh really? Based on what? I know Lamar said he was cramping, but I don't buy it. The offense was stagnant. He cramped handing off the ball to Henry as he fumbled it? Then watching Josh Allen engineer a comeback?? On the drive in question he handed off to Henry, pitched the ball to Flowers on a jet sweep, then stood in the pocket and threw a 6 yd pass. He is a well conditioned world class athlete. Yes at the the end of that play, he took a viscous hit, so maybe he was a bit shook from that. If that's the case then take the damn timeout. The reality is Harbaugh made the decision in isolation to punt. As Tony Soprano would say.. end of story.

15 day qpf says very dry for all except a few showers along the coast. Severe Drought is on the way................................

kinda seems like ur "grasping at straws". everything about last year was a la nina except enso, which was pretty close. it's foolish to think that -0.4 is much different than -0.7.

I actually hope it warms up come late September and October when the climate numbers are lower.

Sigh.. Fucking Harbaugh. Almost want to root for a disaster of a season so they finally get rid of him.

Last year wasn't a nina. It was cool neutral. I know winters generally suck now but it seems you're really grasping at straws

I haven’t heard any information suggesting that the new sensors being installed at the airports have an inherent cold bias during radiational cooling events. The coldest temperature in NJ since late August wasn’t from an airport but at the Walpack ,NJ climate station. Plus KFOK which is at an airport has always been a great radiational cooling spot out in the Hamptons. So very cold readings at airports which happen to located in great radiational cooling locations like the Pine Barrens with sandy soil have been a common occurrence long before the new sensors began to get rolled out.

So far BOS is -1.1F for the month ORH is -1.3F

He is giving me too much credit. It’s because people take one part of what someone says (if it confirms what they fear or want) and run with it. I did state in the fall leading into both those years that we had a very high chance at a total dead ratter winter. But it was based solely on the base state of the PDO and enso heading in and probabilities. I didn’t actually call TOD on those winters for sure until around Xmas.

As long as we know when to toss it (tomorrow) And when to use it (last Satuday)

I dont think we'll ever see another 2013-14 here and I've said that many times. However, if everything aligned pattern wise for a similar winter (again, highly unlikely), I do not buy for one minute the bogus "new climate weather adjustment" bs. The winter of 2013-14 was decades into the mainstream acknowledgment of "global warming" and was the most severe winter this area had recorded. If you get a favorable pattern where everything aligns for any given region, you absolutely can get a severe winter and cc is going to do nothing to stop it.

I’m kind of surprised they were all given EF1 status. I thought they would likely be EF0 based on radar and damage I saw in pics and video. But hey…we take.

I can't remember, is that good or bad for winter?

Sunny, dry, and early color continues.

Highest we saw this summer at my house was 81. I imagine we won’t see 75 again before next Spring up here on Tenn border but I’ve been wrong before.

don't buy that 23 at all, lol. some of these COOP sites have terrible siting and should be taken with a grain of salt