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100 or bust^

We were at a cross roads and one again went the opposite way

I always reference that, as I just did One of two events where my area slayed ORH.

This morning's AIGFS is about as weenie as it gets for the full run.

December 5, 1981 was a mini Feb 1969.

Feels like we haven't had a Spring with nice long lasting ridging in quite some time!

6z Euro next Thursday starts the parade early.

Time to ban lol

January 23-February 15, 1980 was exceptionally dry with just a trace of precipitation. There was some rain afterward, but it took until the first half of March to turn wetter.

Bunk. The world has solved lots of problems, without having solved all of them. The notion that if you can't solve one problem then you can't solve any problem is ludicrous.

Really hoping we can get some ridging here into the spring. Last thing I want is endless gunk on easterly winds. It just makes it miserable and doesn’t help the drought.

What is your total in the Battle Creek area so far? I am west of Grand Rapids and we are around 80" so far.

Got down to 4° here. Wasn’t expecting that.

Same here.

Yep. MK Ultra's more like it. Totally fragmented personality, now. I'm gonnabe really useful later...

Definitely a more traditional Nina-like pattern coming up for the rest of February. But it’s really interesting that we see a piece of the cooler Northeast relative to other areas which has been in place since November continuing. So more of a close to average temperature pattern here with the warmest temperatures missing our area. Longer term the models are forecasting a transition to El Nino. Nina to Nino summer transitions typically haven’t been very warm here like we saw during years like 2023, 2009, 1997 and 1986. But the last strong drought La Nina to El Nino in 2002 was very warm. That year was a much warmer winter than we just had. So we can see competing influences this year with extreme drought across much of the CONUS and a lingering cold pool near the Northeast. It will be interesting to see if the Northeast can hold onto the local cooler readings relative to other areas or the drought feedback ridge to our west eventually builds into the Northeast with the heat.

Jebman has been brainwashed by Chuck?

9 degrees this morning. Model's sure don’t have a handle on the weekend storm.

Yes, climate change is an amplifying factor. Its not a root cause, but makes problematic weather or problems in society worse. Likewise its emblematic of our ability to address complex problems. If we can't address climate change we won't solve other problems either.

Rad pits shining

Your level of understanding of worldwide systems, and your worldview, is made pretty clear from that last sentence. The rest just naturally follows, and isn't even worth addressing. We'll just leave it at that.

One of the worst performances from our "highest skill" model at under 120hrs out

Well, we only have the 6z ICON on our side this morning for the Sunday snow chance…. Let’s hope for a comeback at 12z …

Yeah it was just after lunch. Prob between 1-2pm. IIRC ORH went from nothing to heavy snow inside 30 min and it stayed heavy snow on official ASOS for like 10-12 hours straight. Just a massive 10-12 hour crush job and then it was over. There wasn’t a ton of snow between that storm and the Mar 4-6, 2001 storm…but it mostly stayed OTG. Then March went gangbusters.

That was it for me. I know some get excited over long-lasting snowpack, but I am a snowfall bottom line guy. We got 2" qpf with temps in the teens and got 6.5" snow out of it. Meanwhile places like Pensacola, FL and Morehead City, NC got 10" and 16" clean snows the last two years