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Not a model guy, but not seeing that. Showed a shade of blue over my house for about 10 hours same as last run.

Because Upton is going with 10-14 inches with some mixing and the latest guidance has trended warmer. That’s all I’m saying.

Quite possible

It made zero sense but I just let it go...

At 39hrs, the 12k has a 1007 slp in central Mississippi, yet it just punch the sleet line thru mby like a hot knife thru butter some 1000+ miles away. Pretty crummy long wave pattern that we can't keep this storm from turning nasty.

Primary is a tad weaker & SE of 18z. Gives the PIT crew a little more breathing room. Unfortunately doesn't help the coast much this run. From another met

Nah. NAM is overdoing the sleet the last 2 runs. FYI it's basically the same as last run not worse contrary to the comments I'm seeing. .

The model war will definitely continue into the final day, willing to bet.

Trick, the FV3 is almost always similar to the gfs inside 48 hours. Similar to the rgem/ggem. So if you want to know about what the gfs is going to look like just look at the FV3 now.

Those rates right to the north of the mix would be insane… like 2-3” an hour

NAM continuing to show the dry slot. Also has a nice little line of rain going through Raleigh at the end lol

I’m confused too… I would consider 3-6 a big letdown but not 8-12. Now I’m on record not buying 8–12. But I would consider it a good storm.

3K was a step back. Is what it is.

Very poor. I mean they wouldn't even be close! This one falling apart in the last 36 hrs would be brutal...

If the NAM is correct, the public will have pitchforks out for all the Mets instead of the apps

The surface is a reflection of the upper-levels, not vice-versa. The strength and positioning of that wave is what will dictate the primary/secondary strength and transition as well as the strength of mid-level features which is what is driving the warming, not the surface feature.

Freezing rain isn't so much fun. However, I think of sleet as low ratio snow that helps keep the snow pack around longer.

A tick of a tick.

Snowmap is juiced up.

Ridin with the GFS until I can’t

6-10 is my call

The 2017 storm had a pesky warm layer around 800mb which caused the sleet line to be way north.

Already some mPING reports in NW AR and NE OK. Seems those areas might be moistening faster than expected.