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  2. CoastalWx
    I’d probably side with some high res models but perhaps not fully. Maybe a Nam/euro compromise. This feels like one of those things that we have a 50 mile wide plume of heavy rain with embedded little meso lows in it that will enhance rainfall. That’s especially true I think for Western areas. Further east, we might see another one sort of develop and try to pinwheel to the coast again and some typical enhancement on East Northeast flow. But these setups are always varying from run to run. I do think even up to Dendrite gets a good drink.
  3. GaWx
    The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:
  4. SolidIcewx
    A repeat of last tuesday would be nice
  5. Typhoon Tip
    It's funny how those that don't like hot(cold) air ... attempt to gaslight any hot(cold) air as being less significant when it is clear to everyone else that a given region is highly likely in a state of misery in hot(cold) air. Yet, they are not actually even a part of a given region that is "not suffering" the hot(cold) air, too ... LOL
  6. WestBabylonWeather
  7. weatherwiz
    Agreed on this. You can see that hinted at just looking at how the mlvls evolve. This is more like a cool season evolution than something we usually see in the warm season. Just looking at 700 RH you can see the idea of two jack zones and where
  8. GaWx
    Joe Bastardi’s current primary analogs for this winter are 1957-8 and 1965-6. He showed on Saturday that the avg temperature of those 2 in DJF is close to what recent CFS means have had. But his basis of using those 2 is that they’re both 2 very strong El Niños with a -PDO. What the? Whereas I hope we get something like what the CFS has been showing, I can’t figure out why he’s counting them as -PDO analogs: -1957-8 had +1 to +2.4 PDO every month from June through Feb! -1965-6 PDO was neutral in July and then +0.7 to +1.4 Aug-Dec. Then it fell only to borderline -PDO in Jan/Feb (-0.3, -0.2). https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat
  9. weatherwiz
    I don't know if I see much flooding potential outside of any typical flood-prone areas that flood if it precipitates for more than 5 minutes. A lot of this is drawn out over multiple days and ends up being more convective in nature. There will be a good slug of rain early on in the setup with the warm front or even triple point but this looks to occlude rather quickly. Any flooding risk probably confined to (if) any areas that are hit with several rounds of convection.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    At this point, I would just be happy with a regionwide 1.5" - 2.5" of rain. We are seriously in need of a recharge of the aquifers and water ways.
  11. WxUSAF
    Smokey skies again?
  12. NorthHillsWx
    What makes this month’s rain even more impressive in the triangle is we achieved these totals without a tropical system involved. And it hasn’t been just a couple rogue storms, it has been consistent heavy events from the start to the end of the month. With many areas now over a foot of rain with more possible tomorrow, this month is working towards the top 5 wettest months all time for the area and probably the wettest ever without a significant tropical system to influence the totals. The drought isn’t over but per WRAL we needed 18” in July to end it and I’m sitting over 13” and RDU has nearly 12. That is damn impressive and lakes and rivers have responded as well
  13. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    EverNorth Pharmacy: EverNorth Pharmacy - canadian pharmacy 365
  14. GaWx
    It’s interesting that both the Arctic and the Antarctic have been cold the last 2 months relative to the past. The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:
  15. pawatch
    We definitely need some rain. Lets hope their prediction is right.
  16. eyewall
    That storm had some intense ground strikes. It woke me up for sure. I did not pop up the drone as it was already pouring too much.
  17. Brian5671
    yeah during the week is fine-just don't need the rain here-everyone still cleaning up the damage from last week.
  18. WestBabylonWeather
    Good. I’ll take Tuesday rain and a clear weekend all of the time, better than a bad weekend
  19. frd
    Rather impressive thunderstorm last evening around 12:30 a.m. moving north to south along the western edges of northern Delaware. Received about 75 in of rain.
  20. Brian5671
    Just what we need here!
  21. dendrite
    I doubt you’d find a resident there that said 102° is not hot. The record for yesterday is 104° in 1931 and 1933. They’re also now +7.0F for the month where the std devs are at their lowest. Looks like that 80.8F mean will place this July at the 4th warmest all time with 8 of the top 9 warmest Julys occurring since 2000. I won’t pretend to claim I know the history of the MLS ASOS siting though. Maybe pre-ASOS was a “cooler” siting.
  22. Kmlwx
    I still would generally favor south of DC for tomorrow. But the NAM nest and HRRR do get activity (some seemingly severe?) into all areas tomorrow. After shrinking the 15% contour to the south of us yesterday, CSU guidance has it back north of the M/D line. So that's good. We'll see (as always!)
  23. BeastFromTheEast
    Average highs start dropping now at ORD. The slow March towards fall has begun
  24. ineedsnow
    some will flood
  25. Brian5671
    Meso models very wet for the tri-state-the area of bullseye varies but a wet signal for sure
  26. dailylurker
    It looks like our chance of storms all week evolved into a chance of a couple rounds of storms tomorrow and that's about it. Boring continues to be the rule imo. I'd like to see the tropics wake up.
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