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Sounds like a plan. Appreciate the advice from a pro!

October 2024 was the strongest monthly PDO on record, at -3.81. Rolled forward +15 months to 2 Winter's later, the tendency is slight -PNA, but a little bit more of a -NAO here (map is default positive, so it's the opposite) The 1-year lead PDO doesn't appear to be that impactful for 15 months later (testing the subsurface PDO theory), but there is a slight -PNA signal.

I got .05” rain earlier today but that was it. It was nearly sunny for a while this afternoon.

Anti-Stein here: Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 744 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 CTZ005>012-062345- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 744 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut. .DAY ONE...Tonight. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are likely across southern CT overnight, particularly the higher elevations. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible.

How are you feeling sir?

Also, has anyone heard from @paweather on how his cancer battle is going? I really hope all is going well.

It looks like Cashtown & @Bubbler86 are getting the goods this round. Has anyone heard from @Bubbler86 ? Hopefully he checks in soon.

We are still in decadal -PDO. The problem with that is that the index was so extremely negative the last few years, that even if there is a rebound, the subsurface is still pretty warm in the North Pacific PDO region. We were rebounding nicely in the PDO through the late Winter and March.. Now I think it has stabilized with the NOAA PDO index still near -1, and other readings are near -0.5 (Gawx knows more about this difference). Nino 1+2 being so warm in March rolled forward to a nice +PDO composite for November, but now Nino 1+2 has dropped to negative, so I don't know that, that is still valid. I would guess it stays near neutral, or slightly negative, but the only real strong Aleutian High pressure we have had since November was Jan 15 - Feb 10. Just one example of that really. It does seem to have changed a bit in the N. Pacific compared to the last few years.

Rain tapering off. 2.30” since Saturday afternoon.

36 hours since the last drops of rain here. Western LSV is getting the goods.

I'm surprised that you didn't jump on that 1970-now warming image, since the 1970s were one of the coldest decades

Pouring

Over half of the Central Park total came from a heavy cell a couple days ago that just clipped the park but missed everyone to the east of Manhattan, hence the totals discrepancy.

I don’t see much up here forcing-wise to lead to anything near severe. We may to be to NE for the stuff coming N too.

it's been fairly Stein locally. Rained much more in SE NH today tbh

Surprised by heavy rain for well over an hour in silver spring. Juicy

0.40 for today. Not what I was hoping for but I'll take it. It is just like Saturday with much heavier totals just west of me

Going to be a cold night. Temp down to 49 already.

50 here . Glad I didn't install at least for the next week.

Yes. Almost coast-to-coast warmth.

Pesky ULL kept clouds overhead all day keeping temps in the 60s. Should be mostly 70s and 80s from tomorrow on. Hope storminess returns 2nd half of month.

apparently they haven’t

Latest EURO for JJA agrees on warmer than normal Summer. Especially nations mid-section where it shows the latest positive departures. FWIW.

Totals Fri - 8PM NYC: 1.78 LGA: 1.06 JFK: 1.05 EWR: 0.75 New Brnsck: 0.58

In 80+% humidity, what went wrong?