All Activity

should finally all be rotated away tomorrow...but again, Friday - ooph Couple winners, Mom's day through next Tuesday ...then we'll see if that TV vortex that really shouldn't be there, goes on a stresses physics in order to fuck with us actually wins. lol

It’s already up here. Turned to shit around noon.

67.2° SCT/BKN Nice day but more rain approaching

Charlie and others, Dr. Arthur Viterito responded to this paper by Trenberth et al. He doesn’t buy it. However, I feel like Dr. Viterito may be going a bit off on tangents and thus may be addressing items that are irrelevant or deceiving. He may also be misunderstanding what the paper is saying. I’d like to see what others think about this response: —————— So, one is led to believe that stronger winds are driving warmer and stronger currents in these narrow bands. Furthermore, that strengthening commenced in 2005 and has proceeded through 2023. If we examine the global zonal wind anomaly (surface) since 1940, we see the following: The global trend in zonal windspeed is slightly negative, not positive (Y=-0.0003X - .0067). The time series of zonal winds for the 40 degree North latitude band is depicted in the following graph: An important detail that must be noted is that Trenberth et al. used the 2000 through 2004 timeframe as their baseline. A baseline which is that short is very unusual as baselines of 30 years or more are the accepted norm in climate analysis. This questionable "baselining" of the data is, in my opinion, a serious flaw that can skew the results. I will adjust to a 30 baseline (1971-2000) and analyze off of that.

On geologic timeframes, I agree we're in the last act. It's no longer even possible to get a snowball scenario now, insolation is already too high. The drawdown in GHGs over the last ~300-500Mya has mostly neatly offset the increase in insolation over time but that parameter space is now limited on the downside. I would venture a guess that current continental drift resulting in another supercontinent+2-3% insolation puts temps well above Eocene levels and ends the golden age of habitability. In either the short or long run, if you pancake the ETP temp gradient with either GHGs or insolation, you kill off most marine life during the transition. If it happens quickly enough, then you can end up with Canfield oceans -- which I would describe as a weird form of undeath (purple water and green atmosphere from euxinic conditions). In the very short run, we're extremely close (450ppm) to tipping over in the Southern Ocean with regards to ocean acidification causing widespread aragonite undersaturation, what I would consider the first step in that process.

000 SXUS71 KILN 070651 RERDAY RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 251 AM EDT WED MAY 07 2025 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DAYTON OH... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.16 INCHES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH YESTERDAY, TUESDAY, MAY 6, 2025. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY SITE RECORD OF 0.91 INCHES SET IN 1971. $$ Only in the middle of the 1st week of May, but already have 3" of rain for the month already. No way May's going to be drier than normal by the time the month is over. Keep the stretch of wetter-than-normal months coming over the next several months, especially with some of the near-biblical rains, and we can forget having a summer this year.

I haven't been following the svr recently so looked at the SPC storm reports for May and its consistently 2-4 tor reports, typically some landspout in NM/TX and then a report or 2 somewhere on the eastern US side. The hail and wind reports range from 80-130 with an equal ratio. May 2 had a lot more. Snoozer!

Yeah the difference over the last 2 weeks is pretty amazing. These last few days finally got it wet below 10" down, I still had crumbly soil a foot down when I put in some bushes last week.

Beautiful and 70

no those were bad, but 91, 93, 95, 99 and 02 were great.

Hive intelligence may be more likely (like the intelligence of bees), or if the planet is completely covered in oceans, intelligence on the order of octopus-- a very highly intelligent creature that builds cities and settlements on the sea floor. https://www.thecut.com/2016/12/octopuses-are-intelligent-aliens.html https://www.sherryduquet.com/otto-the-octopus/ https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96476905 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/3328480/Otto-the-octopus-wrecks-havoc.html https://curiosity.com/topics/captive-octopuses-need-intellectual-stimulation-or-else-they-get-bored-curiosity/

p sunny in Trashua, near 70 with a little dew. Real nice

There was one point my son had blood running down his face when he was a toddler. Didn't even feel it. Effing bastards.

Absolutely. Not that I enjoy them but I'll take deer flies and mosquitoes over them any day. Black flies like to chew on your face.

I like this idea (Dark Flow), it actually fits into the cyclic cosmology model I agree with (Steinhardt, Ilyas), which has parts of the universe expanding while others contract and vice versa. Effectively, these separate areas become their own universes. In the paper I read the analogy was a ball with kinetic energy rolling up a hill, as it rolls up that hill the kinetic energy gets converted to potential energy. Once at the top of the hill, all the kinetic energy has now been converted to potential energy and it briefly pauses there and then starts to roll downhill with the potential energy being converted back to kinetic energy. This is the cyclic model of the universe, with many peaks and valleys. Each big bang or big bounce happens when the universe reaches a valley and not all of the potential energy has been converted back to kinetic energy and the universe starts to make the same uphill climb again. In their paper they stated that in their mathematical model each cycle creates a larger universe than the previous one (a smaller cosmological constant would be the reason why) and eventually the cycle will become so large that the universe will no longer contract (you can call this *heat death* but it's also possible that a tiny part of this *dying* universe will create a new Big Bang (perhaps inside a spinning Kerr black hole with a ring singularity) and with the cosmic *dna* of the parent universe will inherit many of the qualities of the parent universe. The size of this cycle has been set at 1 trillion years and we may have just found evidence that dark energy is in the process of reversing and that the universe may be on the cusp of slowing down expansion (according to this contraction will start in approximately 65 million years, a very interesting number.) New evidence that dark energy is evolving Dark energy, the mysterious force thought to make up some 70% of the universe, is considered by many scientists to be an unchanging cosmological constant. But a new data release from the groundbreaking Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument hints that may not be the case. The researchers said yesterday that new measurements of some 15 million galaxies and quasars suggest dark energy in the universe is getting weaker. https://earthsky.org/space/desi-new-data-hints-dark-energy-in-the-universe-is-evolving/?mc_cid=29fc67825e&mc_eid=f195ba0afd https://noirlab.edu/public/news/noirlab2513/ A new data release hints dark energy may be weakening On March 19, 2025, scientists announced the results of a new analysis using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), mounted on the Nicholas U. Mayall 4-meter Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. With the first three years of data involving some 15 million galaxies and quasars, they’ve found hints that dark energy changes over time. Dark energy, which makes up some 70% of the universe, is a mysterious force that drives the accelerating expansion of our universe. DESI helped create the largest yet 3D map of our universe. With this map, scientists could see how dark energy has influenced our universe over the past 11 billion years. And indeed, what they found was that this influence has not been a cosmological constant, but it has changed over time. The DESI collaboration published their peer-reviewed findings on March 19, 2025, in multiple papers that you can read on the DESI collaboration website. In addition, the scientists also presented their findings at the American Physical Society’s Global Physics Summit in Anaheim, California. 2025 EarthSky lunar calendar is available now. A unique and beautiful poster-sized calendar with phases of the moon for every night of the year. Get yours today! Dark energy may be weakening over time The findings draw upon the data from DESI and earlier studies of the cosmic microwave background, supernovas and weak lensing. The press release said: Taken alone, DESI’s data are consistent with our standard model of the universe: Lambda CDM, where CDM is cold dark matter and lambda represents the simplest case of dark energy, where it acts as a cosmological constant. However, when paired with other measurements, there are mounting indications that the impact of dark energy may be weakening over time and that other models may be a better fit. In order for scientists to declare a discovery, however, their findings should reach a 5-sigma level. This is the gold standard for the threshold of discovery. At the moment, the analysis of the new data is around 2.8 to 4.2 sigma. An animation of the largest 3D map of our universe. It traces the location of matter, with Earth at the center and the darker blues denoting the most distant objects. Animation via DESI Collaboration/ DOE/ KPNO/ NOIRLab/ NSF/ AURA/ R. Proctor. DESI data available to the public DESI can look at 5,000 galaxies at one time, overall. Additionally, it tracks the influence of dark energy by noting where matter exists across our universe. There are patterns left behind from the early universe known as Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO). The patterns in these oscillations provide scientists with a ruler. And the ruler allows scientists to measure the peaks in the oscillating waves and how much they get stretched over time. Michael Levi, DESI director and a scientist at Berkeley Lab, said: Whatever the nature of dark energy is, it will shape the future of our universe. It’s pretty remarkable that we can look up at the sky with our telescopes and try to answer one of the biggest questions that humanity has ever asked. The datasets are now available to astronomers and the public alike. Overall, this wealth of data has information on 18.7 million objects. That’s about 4 million stars, 13.1 million galaxies and 1.6 million quasars, specifically. Eventually, DESI will provide us with precise distances to millions of galaxies. Chris Davis, NSF program director for NSF NOIRLab, said: These are remarkable results from an incredibly successful project. The potent combination of the National Science Foundation’s Mayall Telescope and Department of Engery’s Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument shows the benefits of federal agencies working together on fundamental science that improves our understanding of the universe. Bottom line: A new data release from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument hints that the universe’s dark energy is not constant and may be weakening over time. Source: DESI DR2 Results II: Measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and Cosmological Constraints https://data.desi.lbl.gov/public/papers/y3/KP.DR2.BAO.pdf https://noirlab.edu/public/news/noirlab2513/ Latest Dark Energy Survey Data Suggest Possible Variations in Dark Energy Over Time DES spots potential inconsistencies in the standard model of cosmology, supporting a theory of evolving dark energy that could alter the foundations of physics 19 March 2025 Víctor M. Blanco 4-meter Telescope A groundbreaking new study using the Dark Energy Survey (DES) final datasets suggests potential inconsistencies in the standard cosmological model, known as ΛCDM. If confirmed, these findings could fundamentally alter our understanding of the Universe. DES was conducted using the 570-megapixel Department of Energy-fabricated Dark Energy Camera (DECam), mounted on the U.S. National Science Foundation Víctor M. Blanco 4-meter Telescope at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile, a Program of NSF NOIRLab. The ΛCDM (Lambda-CDM) model has been the foundation of modern cosmology for some time now, successfully describing large-scale structures in the Universe. It proposes that 95% of the cosmos is composed of dark matter (25%) and dark energy (70%) — mysterious substances whose nature remains unknown. Only 5% of the Universe consists of ordinary matter. Dark energy, represented by the cosmological constant (Λ), is thought to drive the accelerating expansion of the Universe, maintaining a constant energy density over time. However, new results from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), presented today in a paper appearing on arXiv and in talks at the American Physical Society’s Global Physics Summit in Anaheim, California, hint at a deviation from this assumption, suggesting that dark energy might evolve over time. These findings align with previous studies, reinforcing their significance. The DES is an international collaboration comprising more than 400 scientists from over 25 institutions, led by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The DES was conducted using the 570-megapixel Department of Energy-fabricated Dark Energy Camera (DECam), mounted on the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) Víctor M. Blanco 4-meter Telescope at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile, a Program of NSF NOIRLab. By taking data on 758 nights across six years, DES scientists mapped an area almost one-eighth of the entire sky. The project employs multiple observational techniques, including supernova measurements, galaxy clustering analysis, and weak gravitational lensing, to study dark energy. Two key DES measurements — Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and distance measurements of exploding stars (Type Ia supernovae) — track the Universe’s expansion history. BAO refers to a standard cosmic ruler formed by sound waves in the early Universe, with peaks spanning approximately 500 million light-years. Astronomers can measure these peaks across several periods of cosmic history to see how dark energy has stretched the scale over time. Santiago Avila from the Centre for Energy, Environmental and Technological Research (CIEMAT) in Spain, who was responsible for the BAO analysis in DES, says, “By analyzing 16 million galaxies, DES found that the measured BAO scale is actually 4% smaller than predicted by ΛCDM.” Type Ia supernovae serve as 'standard candles', meaning they have a known intrinsic brightness. Therefore, their apparent brightness, combined with information about their host galaxies, allows scientists to make precise distance calculations. In 2024 DES published the most extensive and detailed supernova dataset to date, providing highly accurate measurements of cosmic distances. These new findings from the combined supernovae and BAO data independently confirm the anomalies seen in the 2024 supernova data. By integrating DES measurements with cosmic microwave background data, researchers inferred the properties of dark energy — and the results suggest a time-evolving nature. If validated, this would imply that dark energy, the cosmological constant, is not constant after all, but a dynamic phenomenon requiring a new theoretical framework. “This result is intriguing because it hints at physics beyond the standard model of cosmology,” says Juan Mena-Fernández of the Subatomic Physics and Cosmology Laboratory in Grenoble, France. “If further data support these findings, we may be on the brink of a scientific revolution.” Although the current results are not yet definitive, upcoming analyses incorporating additional DES probes — such as galaxy clustering and weak lensing — could strengthen the evidence. Similar trends have emerged from other major cosmological projects, including the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), raising anticipation within the scientific community [1]. “These results represent years of collaborative effort to extract cosmological insights from DES data,” says Jessie Muir of the University of Cincinnati. “There is still much to learn, and it will be exciting to see how our understanding evolves as new measurements become available.” The final DES analysis, expected later this year, will incorporate additional cosmological probes to cross-check findings and refine constraints on dark energy. The scientific community eagerly awaits these results, as they could pave the way for a paradigm shift in cosmology. Notes [1] This press release describes the DESI Collaboration’s analysis of the survey’s first three years of collected data, which also found hints of a time-evolving dark energy. More information These results are presented by the DES Collaboration. NSF NOIRLab, the U.S. National Science Foundation center for ground-based optical-infrared astronomy, operates the International Gemini Observatory (a facility of NSF, NRC–Canada, ANID–Chile, MCTIC–Brazil, MINCyT–Argentina, and KASI–Republic of Korea), NSF Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO), NSF Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO), the Community Science and Data Center (CSDC), and NSF–DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory (in cooperation with DOE’s SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory). It is managed by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA) under a cooperative agreement with NSF and is headquartered in Tucson, Arizona. The scientific community is honored to have the opportunity to conduct astronomical research on I’oligam Du’ag (Kitt Peak) in Arizona, on Maunakea in Hawai‘i, and on Cerro Tololo and Cerro Pachón in Chile. We recognize and acknowledge the very significant cultural role and reverence of I’oligam Du’ag to the Tohono O’odham Nation, and Maunakea to the Kanaka Maoli (Native Hawaiians) community. Funding for the DES Projects has been provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Ministry of Science and Education of Spain, the Science and Technology Facilities Council of the United Kingdom, the Higher Education Funding Council for England, the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the Kavli Institute of Cosmological Physics at the University of Chicago, Funding Authority for Funding and Projects in Brazil, Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development and the Ministry of Science and Technology, the German Research Foundation and the collaborating institutions in the Dark Energy Survey. Based in part on data acquired at the Anglo-Australian Telescope for the Dark Energy Survey by OzDES. We acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land on which the AAT stands, the Gamilaraay people, and pay our respects to elders past and present. Fermilab is America’s premier national laboratory for particle physics and accelerator research. A U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science laboratory, Fermilab is located near Chicago, Illinois, and operated under contract by the Fermi Research Alliance LLC. Visit Fermilab’s website at www.fnal.gov and follow us on Twitter at @Fermilab. The DOE Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, please visit science.energy.gov. Links Read the paper: Dark Energy Survey: implications for cosmological expansion models from the final DES Baryon Acoustic Oscillation and Supernova data Visit the Dark Energy Survey webpage Photos of the Víctor M. Blanco 4-meter Telescope Videos of the Víctor M. Blanco 4-meter Telescope Photos of the Dark Energy Camera NOIRLab Stories Blog: Two Cosmological Surveys Strengthen Hints That Standard Model of Cosmology Is Wrong Check out other NOIRLab Science Releases https://noirlab.edu/public/blog/two-cosmological-surveys/

I definitely dive pretty deeply into it in the blog...but I think the predomianat +WPO is tied into the west PAC warm pool. I think the NAO is being impacted by CC because we hardly ever have DM seasons that average -NAO anymore. Last season was predicatable due to solar max, but even beyond that...the ceiling is like one month averaging neg NAO lol. This century, only 2000-2001, 2010-2011 and 2020-2021 have pulled it off.

Models starting to favor northern areas again. Something to watch

71.6 out. Feels great.

I finished at 1.72” of liquid. Had periods of snow then rain and back again most of Tuesday and overnight. Here is a picture from my drive this morning heading into Estes.

I hope you get answers soon. Hop you feel better soon.

Beautiful day today. Probably the best May weather we get. Low 70s, sunny... 10/10

i have kinda become an expert at alternative things instead of prescript drugs. Raw Milk and Goat Milk Soap are 2 of my favs that got me off 2 scripts. When i find something good i like to pass it along. todays tip, When a world class cardiologist tells you to take 200MG of COQ10 a day, you get that shit ordered immediately.

Cut off #1 5/2 - 5/6 Rainfall NYC: 2.01 LGA: 1.65 JFK: 1.48 EWR: 0.91 New Brnswck: 0.75

oh there's billions of planets with microbial life. the paramount question ...well, actually the paramount question is getting that proven. but i guess the penultimate question is whether there's life that contains sentience and capacitance comparable to ours - hopefully "better" in terms of collective morality and virtuosity ...but that's something else. LOL anyway, back to the cosmic JW discrepancy stuff: i don't dismiss theses notions entirely. open minded. but i have an 'accordion' hypothesis about the cosmos, that doesn't require portals, and parallels, ... bleeding previous dimensions into our space and the like. basically it goes like, our region of space ( out to perhaps 13 billion or so light years) is expanding ... the last 8 or so billion years of which has been expanding faster than light speed. that creates an 'optic event horizon' ...where that speed exceeds light, and so the light that is beyond will never be detectable for distances > than that 13 or so billion. but out there beyond is a deformation where space is nearly not expanding or contracting, demarcating a cosmic region where it is contracting - which may or may not be the same size as this expanding area we are a part. this goes on interminably...with zones of contraction and expanding, like an infinite honeycomb.. and yes, areas of contraction may shrink until some point where they start expanding, but so do expanding areas ... slow and eventually reverse... These cycles take longer than the 13 billion years we can see - so we have no record. this is sort of like looking at the top of a slowly boiling fluid - only space is doing the same thing at god like scales of distance. The expanding region from this hypothetical vantage point are like 'upwelling' ...and you can see between the upwelling regions, you have convergence - space may in fact be flowing like convection if you were to rotate our perspective somehow by 90 deg.

not 92, 96, 97 or 98