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CMC also slower and trend looks to be slowing this down a bit

Slow it even more, Another 24hrs, Give it some room.

Doesn't stop until Monday morning or Noon.

Let's see what ensembles show, I feel like they will not be as suppressed and we will be in a good spot.

Congrats on Coke streamers mixed in with the synoptic precip

This is reminding more of the 93-94 storm @John1122. Lots of ice and snow in Knoxville followed by cold temps. I40-74 was down to like one lane for a few days due to that. What do you think?

yeah we get fantastic overrunning and a tad bit of coastal....if we can get that to capture/tuck that's the big dog scenario.

Some things don't change.

CMC is a significant you can even say huge snowstorm up into NE Mass..

Very icon-esque.

CMC was just slower overall but also moved towards the more east later transfer idea. I said last night that either happens way west in the TN Valley or in coastal SC/GA in these setups. It won't typically happen over WRN GA/AL.

Still garbage here as well.

Looks like it's game on for metro Atlanta.

I gotta admit, the GFS/AIGFS make me nervous. That ULL in the Southwest has to eject. AND it needs to be well timed with northern stream shortwaves dropping south through MT and the Dakotas. There are always failure modes.

Comparing the GFS to all other models for this upcoming storm might be the worst gap I've ever seen. We really need to retire it and invest more into our modeling here ... Oof. Unless it wins a coup and is correct but doubt it.

I don't like waiting on a second system west of the Apps. Too many times I have seen that slide into the Carolinas during previous storms. Need a 0z Euro solution or AIFS look. Fortunately, the GFS is well...the 12z GFS. There is a reason it scores poorly. The 12z GEM is trending south. And as always...read Jeff's post above.

Days and days?

No, did not move up to this area until 2016. I have often wondered what the NJ coldest minimum temperature on record really is. I believe it is recorded as -34 in River Vale (Bergen County) back in 1904. Have to believe it would have been colder than that in the Sussex County valley locations. Also how accurate is the -34 reading? Who and exactly where was it recorded? Lived in Park Ridge, next to River Vale for 10 years from mid 70's to mid 80's. Saw some cold readings during that time but temperatures on the coldest morning were always notably colder out in NW NJ.

CMC takes the look of the Euro. We'd sign....well I would.

150 pops a new coastal just off shore

Just a foot area-wide on the Canadian.

I think the GFS is what it is because of how it’s handling the cold air. Therefore suppressed, how often do these super cold temps verify. Rarely, so I think the GFS will come north