All Activity

damn...auntie em auntie em!!!

man it is dumping out there right now my weather station saying 2" hr and .40 in the last 10 minutes this will ge me over 2" for the event

A baby-nado, if you will. It's funny, we were driving down 222 back from the Poconos right around that time and weren't far from that location when I pointed out to my wife what looked to be a nasty little cell. Sure enough.

Don't worry. The euro will save us Friday lol

Yes the NE coast and parts of the upper midwest have had increased snow since 1970. That's consistent with the paper I posted upthread (relinked below and added a second). As expected the snowfall signal is emerging much slower than the temperature signal due to offsetting precipitation and temperature effects and natural variability. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/20/jcli-d-12-00832.1.xml https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2018GL079820

Wow

ended here before 2 pm

EFO tornado confirmed yesterday afternoon down here in Lancaster County near Denver. About as small as you'll see though, only on the ground for a single minute, with a path width of only 10 yards and a path length of a tenth of a mile.

The other way I know the warm ridge idea has legs is because every time since the mid 20teens there's one in the model, the operational GFS canes Cuba/Bahamas. it's like responding to numerical instability more than an actual system and then spontaneity in the physical processing of the model takes over and it just fabricates one - but it requires the deep layer easterly anomaly to the circulation mode down there, which is what happens when? duh duh dunnn... there's ridge over the eastern CONUS.

I don't remember that last year. Seemed like once we hit April last year we were off to the races towards Summer. Seemed like last summer was very long. This current stretch is super nice.

Dry here other than a 3 min shower about 20 mins ago. The rain blobs are moving in a rare position - SE to NW. Don't see that often here.

That's cool, yea the stats back up what I saw here. 5"/hr rates at peak seems about right lol

Reflection from the winter blue balls of AEMATT

Yep. My weather station alerted me as to such. If you check the link in my profile it will show my station stats.

There's a low amplitude heat signal now for the 12th thru ~ the 18th ( ending is open ) It's showing up in all three major ens systems, EPS/GEFS/GEPS. The numeric equivalents, the teleconnections, have a negative PNA with a ( important distinction ) easterly limb -NAO... If that NAO does materialize but corrects west ...we'd be back door boned but that's not actually modeled to be the case at this time - just a precaution. Otherwise, there's not much else that looks capable at large scales of controlling the circulation identity. The major players will be a height rises NE of Hawaii over the E Pac Basin, which transmits to the western N/A trough response => eastern CONUS ridging. It just not huge at this time... but it is identifiable. If the wholesale gets a little more robust, than that weird weakness rattling around over the TV probably becomes less coherent/fills in - but it's not clear that's affecting up this far N anyway. Have to watch these... Sometimes these May heat surges can over perform because we're still tending to recover soil sourced theta-e, so the kinetic side of the temperatures can get nasty from rather tepid looking warm patterns - think synergistic over performance. This sort of thing happened up in NNE since 2020 a couple of times, sending them into the mid 90s when NY and Boston held at 85 Kind of a 564 to 569 thickness over 850s intervals to 14C for now.

That was a helluva downpour here. Gotta be 1"+ totals from that.

Did the Atlantic dry up in the drought why is there little moisture with a southeast fetch

Probably 0.6” total here now.

Why is that sky that weird color?

All this time it was fat drops and pouring, now it has turned into much finer droplets and still pretty moderate.

I guess we get screwed out of seeing Haley's Comet debris/showers in the early morning hours pre dawn tomorrow due to cloudy skies...

Still haven't gotten anything here, but some trying to move in.

.25-50" totals through guidance for remainder of this slow ass low passage

Someone’s drought got busted. Just not ours.

Some up slope flow as the moisture gets squeezed out by the hills NW of the Fall Line