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Down to 35 F here, dropping and with the winds, just beautiful...

Pack was obliterated here. Only a few plow piles left in the most shaded area of the neighborhood.

Some flakes for the 23rd

Same here.

It can split NNE and SNE ( not sure i think you're in VT ?) anyway, the storm track can end up flopping like an unmanned fire hose because both tracks are supported ... sort of ending up between cutters and transfers... SNE rolls dice ending up shafted or SWFE 50/50 .. while mix gets to PF, and then it's powder snow up in CAR ... It's not impossible for easterly NAO's to even swash a warm sector or two. No coincidence we're seeing the operational runs flopping around as they have been.

Ugh! Had to reset the timer for the Christmas lights. These power outages tend to be a bit inconvenient.

Snow flurries

Model guidance brewing some big warmth for late next week. GEFS, GEPS, EPS all have it. Most of the country is modeled to be above freezing on Xmas. Our warmest day might come right after. Still waiting for a positive surprise in the mid-range...

What will build my confidence is when the epo turns negative, which may take some time but we will go from there. An ao/nao being negative can trump an awful pacific sometimes.

Looks like low 50s for Xmas. Probably 60 or so the day after. Is what it is. Not hating it tbh.

I think models are in a huge state of flux right now. They were wrong about the Baja lows. They are wrong about over-doing too many NW Pac lows. They could be overdoing the Aleutian and/or NAO and/or AO HL blocking. We have seen modeling miss on HL blocking at exactly this time of year, but we have seen it score. Just too early to tell.

I am mainly confident, because recent Nina climatology suggests there will be 10-14 days of very cold temps sometime between week 2-4 of January. Plus, this seems to be one of those years where warm-ups get shortened as they draw closer. We are in the "warm-up" which was originally modeled to be anomalous. This morning, I was running in 30+mph winds with wind chills in the 20s. If the more aggressive models are correct, the warm-up may be confined to Dec 24-28th. Might be the most talked about warm-up ever to only amount to about 120 hours of AN temps. LOL. I hope that is what happens!!! I am pulling for the NAO to occur, because I am tired of talking about the MJO (no offense meant to those who like it...it is effective). So far, this has fit Nina climatology like a glove....

Looks like this is back building again. I missed out most of the afternoon squalls. Hope these ramp up and head due east.

Gusted to 49mph in Syosset with the line

Meh...72" is like being fringed!

Down to 38 . Hopefully snow shortly

Hopefully it weakens as it heads east. 6 hours without power now.

GFS AI looks good. GFS op barely has precip lol.

Yeah that was the ultimate true statement...100% chance of weather and all models and every ensemble agrees on that! Don't forget the known knowns and known unknowns too. You've probably figured out that this place can go from one extreme to another in almost no time! I just await some opportunity for @stormtracker with GUYS, FOLKS, JAWS!!

I was listening to KYW about an hour ago and the traffic report was already talking about down trees (e.g., in Delco). But flying cows! Temp here has dropped over 15 degrees from my earlier high and I'm down to 40 with dp 28.

From now until about 6:30 or so.

intense winds here with the squall line and thunder

I'd be on pins and needles if this were to happen tomorrow night during this time frame and probably head to the bar who most likely have a backup generator. Birds game time tomorrow/Saturday at 5:00 p.m....

Timing ?

Todays Euro Weeklies are looking better/pretty good for 1/12-2/1. See the main ENSO thread for maps/more details if interested.