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Yeah, the Euro has all-time mid-August heat in the forecast. Just using Newark as a reference point, it gets places like Newark to 102°. That ties for the warmest ever recorded for this time of year. You can also see that Central to Northern Queens could reach 100°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Highest Temperatures August 11th through 20th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2005-08-20 102 0 - 1949-08-20 102 0 - 1944-08-20 102 0 2 2002-08-20 100 0

Such a drought in Nova Scotia they’re fining people if they go into the woods? Is this true? Where’s @Hazey

Despite the great patterns for retaining arctic sea ice, here we sit with this:

58 degrees for the low this morning. Picked .03” off of a stray shower yesterday afternoon. Had 5 bucks in my back yard last evening, just passing trough.

Euro hour 360, just saying that crazy GFS hour 384 image has model support...

They're not saying that we're going to get massive hurricanes just that the models are showing an active signal coming up which usually means we'll see some storms form somewhere. The models showing so many consistently big hurricanes is a good sign we're about to enter an active period for a bit.

Anyone calling the rapid climate change we’re seeing “minor warming” like you did, is probably a bit daft. Sorry…but there comes a point when if you can’t see reality for what it is, maybe you should spend your time doing something other than constantly posting in this thread.

2025 ACE, which is now 3.5, has just moved ahead of both 1998 and 1999 as of this date. Neither of those years had another storm til Aug 18/19. And yet they each ended up with ACE of 181 and 176, respectively.

Dude. The GFS showed us 40 inch blizzards all winter and now its showing us massive hurricanes hitting everywhere all at once. Someone has to be messing with it. I trust the JMA more than the 384 hour GFS.

Had no clue that there was even any rain here. I have stopped looking at radar lately.

I'm sure it's entirely coincidence, but we are hitting the 30 year legendary/epic winter cycle year here in 25-26. The winters of 1935-36, 1965-66, and 1995-96 were all given to stretches of very abnormal cold/ above average snowfall. I know in 1935-36 the NE Pacific was on fire, 3c AN. Western areas did the worst in that winter, but Memphis still got over 10 inches of snow Dec-Feb. Nashville got 19.2 inches from 4 big events. Knoxville had 28 inches that winter. Chattanooga had around 21 inches that winter. My area had 39 inches that winter. 12 in December, 9 in January, and 18 in February. The North Pac was also warm in 1965-1966. January of 66 was absolutely one of our harshest winter events. Most of the state was 5 to 20 below zero after a few big snow events. Alabama set their all time state record low then, when a small town NE of Huntsville hit -27. 1995-95 delivered epic winter here but the north pacific was cool that season. I'm sure a coincidence but an odd one. As for Carver's question about general sst vs blocking, I've found that is a loose correlation at times, mainly even when we get favorable sst in a region that would normally promote blocking, we often still don't get it. I'll look into La Nada winters but I believe enso neutral leans towards AN temps as a rule.

It's also much easier to get warm with fire and cloths and shelter than it is to cool off when off the grid like a lot of the world's population.

Nice and cool out

On Sunday it looked like tonight was the only real chance for any rain until the following Wednesday.

I don't even want to describe the ride to work. Nothing in fuquay....got to crossroads and it went crazy...around 7:30am....I did not expect it. It took me 1.5 hours to get to Wade Park. It's a normal 35 minutes. I was driving through 4 to 6 inches of water at times...I got to work and looked at the radar and turned around and went home! Lol...I cannot wait to see the totals!

Open wide and say aaah?

0.01 so far and feels like fall. refreshing

Raining. Didn’t see this coming

Yeah, if it was early June, I would have entertained the thought of an active Atlantic hurricane season. But we're now in early August. If we were going to have an active hurricane season, we would have seen something by now. (Even last year we had Beryl.) Instead, we are at about 2.5 ACE. Yes, I can see a big storm like Hurricane Andrew hitting at some point in the season, but that will be an outlier on the season, just as Andrew was in 1992 (another year that was very active in the Pacific, not so much in the Atlantic). For the most part, the Pacific is going to be active, and the Atlantic will be rather quiet. We're close to halfway on the hurricane season. The tiger isn't going to change stripes at this point in the season. 155 ACE has very low probability, and would be like if the Rockies made the playoffs this year.

Light rain/drizzle. Just a trace. Mostly cloudy all day and kinda gloomy. The lawn is a browned out wasteland in many spots here. I suspect there will be some new D0 expansion when the new drought map drops tomorrow.

Evening notes:

There are no legit New England hurricane hits on the ensembles.

Euro however is a huge torch. If we have mostly southerly flow it'll be the 92/75+ type conditions, if westerly downslope with 20+C 850s many of us will make a run at 100 but have dews more in the 65-70 range.

Rain has finally moved in. Picked up .42" so far.

End of the GFS run is really funny.