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The rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool over the last decade becoming the most extreme since 2019 is largely the result of the record 500mb blocking in that region leading to clear skies and light winds warming the SSTs below. The interesting thing is how deep below the surface the warming extends. While the 500mb pattern can shift for a few months leading slightly cooler SSTs, the SSTs rapidly rebound when the ridge returns like we have seen this spring following a brief winter hiatus. The challenge is that we are adding so much heat to the system evidenced by the record global temperature jumps in 15-16 and 23-25, that we don’t really understand why the WPAC has been warming more rapidly than the other parts of the Pacific. So it’s uncertain whether an extreme EPAC warming leading to an El Niño event event even bigger than 23-24 would even shift the STJ for more than a season before the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet takes over again the next year. That’s why my comments were that I would just be grateful to see some semblance of a STJ and benchmark track pattern. Obviously a high end volcanic event could shift the pattern and storm track back colder for a period of time, but it would only be transient until the effects wear off and the warming resumes. Remarkable Changes in the Dominant Modes of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

19/5/3

And the next one-

Up to 0.29" now in my backyard. We now have a rain gauge at out water loading facility, and that one shows 0.30" so pretty even rainfall across my immediate region.

1.76 " currently

thats crazy, how does near 90 degree heat make it that far north and just skip right over us? Is it going due north from the SW right into Canada? 2023 was the year we had those awful sky conditions in June?

I just ride a loop in my neighborhood. There’s one punchy hill that sorta mimics some of the mtb hills I ride. I’ve been doing that more so out of convenience so far this year, but I have experienced a couple of drivers that make me question whether they have a legitimate license.

1.3" Just light interment rain after the heavier stuff this morning. Nice event. Plants look happy.

I'll never forget their largest fire-- Camp Fire (?) was started by fireworks being shot off at a gender reveal party by the father. A !@##$ gender reveal party!

Still dry here but the rain shield creeping N and E

It just keeps raining here. This has been a fantastic event for the area.

0.08" so far this afternoon here. I was wondering if the rain might hold off until late afternoon due to the dry air as the RGEM was showing, but nope. It came in early and has been a wet afternoon. Temp fell to 55 and it feels raw out there. Looks like a good soaking tonight of more than a half inch.

Does the course provide floaties?

We started seeing record heat and drought well north into Canada since around 2021. May 2023 was pretty extreme with the record 500mb blocking leading to the worst wild fires on record especially in Eastern Canada. So this current over the top warming is just a continuation of the same theme.

Montreal 81, Boston 76…sux for us

Sounds like Friday could be a decent severe day Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Pattern amplification will occur Friday as one shortwave trough progresses from the Mid-South to the southeast Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic coast, in advance of another wave digging southward over the Great Lakes. An associated surface cyclone will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic late Friday and to the southern New England coast by Saturday morning, while a trailing cold front crosses the Gulf coast, north FL and the southeast Atlantic coast. Within cloud breaks the warm sector will consist of afternoon temperatures near or above 80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, which will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg and minimal convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon. Increasing midlevel flow with time and forcing for ascent along and just ahead of the front will support storm initiation with the potential for storm clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. If wave timing and thermodynamic profiles remain favorable, some portion of this area may warrant an upgrade in later updates.

Pretty soon

1.37” in Lanco (Willow Street) .

It's an excuse to keep denying climate change ... that's it. nothing else -

And here's the thing. If you know the raw data is wrong because you analyzed the situation and determined that a sighting change caused the 2 F bias then just subtract out the 2 F bias like what everyone else in all other disciplines of science does. It almost defies credulity that we are even having a debate about that. Correcting biases, errors, and/or mistakes is the ethical thing to do. Doing anything else is unethical at best and fraudulent at worst. And in some professions if you knowingly ignore a bias, error, and/or mistake or omit data because of such you can cause serious harm up to and including death and/or be prosecuted for a crime as you should be. This is why I want to know the root of this worldview in which biases, errors, and mistakes should be ignored contrary to any rational interpretation of "right" vs "wrong". How did contrarian thinking get so warped that they completely reversed the interpretations of "right" vs "wrong"?

In California for example, 95% start by people or people related scenarios.

we could really use some severe threats to discuss

I think i saw 85% were, but depends on the source. Some say 50% human, 50% lightning/other. I guess cc causes more lightning further north igniting the dry forests

we can't because of bad siting. The only other thing I can think of is have a parallel set of instruments outside of the park and compare the two to each other. We already have a mesonet so we already have the instruments to do a valid comparison.